EURUSD

Consolidation again today? I missed most of yesterday. At the start of the US open the whole country -Malta - had a power cut. I sometimes wonder why I stay 6 months each year.

Anyway, my trading screen is up again live if anyone fancies popping over. I'm net short again at the moment but I fancy the EA will be diving in long soon

So have a great day everyone.

(RFX)Overnight deposits at ECB fall


FRANKFURT, March 23 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank reported the following daily data on liquidity provision, in millions of euros.

TODAY PREV DAY Use of overnight loan facility 52 52 Use of overnight deposit facility 187,838 195,139 Total covered bond purchases 42,863 42,444

[RISK UPDATE] It remains difficult to give an accurate, and certainly any lasting, assessment of sentiment, but suffice to say that a decent rebound in commodities, most stock indices, the Euro and Gbp suggests markets are not as averse as they have been. Although the Greek saga is far from over, some comfort has been drawn from ECB Pres Trichet's comments late yest that infer the CB may be willing to soften its tough stance on collateral if the country is downgraded and effectively excluded from access to ECB liquidity under the current repo tender terms.

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The scope for further euro losses is growing as hopes for an early resolution to Greece's debt problems fade.

Chances are that negotiations will now drag on until the bitter end, with a rescue package emerging in one form or another only when Greece is on the brink of default.
Up until now, financial markets worked on the assumption that, while negotiations were obviously difficult, at least some form of a bailout would emerge from this week's European Union summit in Brussels.
After all, it was only a week ago that European leaders gave verbal pledges to stand by Greece.
However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's warning at the weekend of "false expectations" from the summit meeting suggests that Germany's opposition to a bailout is not only hardening, but that all sides appear to be diverging rather than converging.
Apart from its own political concerns, Berlin appears worried that the long-term stability of the euro will be damaged by a legally questionable short-term bailout. Others, though, suggest that this, the largest euro-zone country, isn't doing enough to prevent an even greater problem--a Greek debt default and the risk of a more serious loss of investor support for other euro-zone debtors.
Even suggestions of International Monetary Fund participation in a rescue program appear to be losing attraction. While an IMF program may avoid the problems of a bilateral bailout, request for IMF help still carries a stigma that could damage the whole of the euro-zone creditworthiness in the future.
There are even suggestions that the IMF may not be able to carry Greece on its own. Stephen Jen, a currencies investor at BlueGold Capital Management in London, noted that under current IMF quota arrangements, Greece would be able to raise only $2.5 billion from the IMF.
"This is hardly enough to get Greece through the first two weeks of April," Jen pointed out.
But the bailout isn't the only problem.
Just as any IMF package will include conditionality, so will any euro-zone rescue. In other words, Greece and other highly indebted peripheral countries that may eventually need help will have to adopt fiscal tightening that will pose a serious risk to the euro-zone economic recovery as a while.
France has suggested that Germany should ease its purse strings and stimulate its own economy to help recovery elsewhere.
There is little sign of this happening in a country that has long seen fiscal restraint as a byword of its previous economic success.
In fact, German President Horst Koehler quickly responded to France's call for higher German spending with a suggestion that Germany should pursue more fiscal consolidation at this time and suspend plans to cut taxes next year.
Thus, not only will the risk of deflationary pressures rise in peripheral countries, but they could emerge within the core itself, ensuring that euro-zone interest rates remain down at current historical lows for even longer than expected.
For the euro, this will be nothing but further bad news providing investors with more reason to sell.
See the euro's decline since the start of 2010:
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3681
Early Tuesday in Europe, the euro was remaining under pressure as there was little sign of any progress on Greece. Japanese repatriation flows ahead of the end of the fiscal year looked set to work against the single currency as well.
By 0745 GMT, the euro was down at $1.3507 from $1.3554 late on Monday in New York, according to EBS. It was also down at Y121.86 from Y122.21. The dollar was up at Y90.22 from Y90.15.

very well defended....kudos to you....sounds like that comes from experience.....


good luck,


mm

if they want to intervene, it's cool with me, as long as it doesn't have an affect on usd pairs , or just sends usd/chf way up

though seems more of a policy to say 'we support intervention' than anything else , not sure they are great at accomplishing it

yea, but it doesnt play out a 100% for you as you think everytime. a trader should use statistics to analyse his trading. i, for example, have a 65% chance of a winning trade and a higher average win than loss. this shows me that my system is working and i can think of ways to optimize it. of course, everyone trades as he believes, i did it before without considering the chances of my system, but now i feel more confident about it i get my aim with trading for a living

I am not sure why is everyone forcing the Greece problem. Greece has population of only 11 million, and EU has population of over 500 million, just Germany is over 80 million. How can 2% of population bring 100% troubles?

It is speculators campaign.

H4 td analysis remain same but the bounce at 1.3502 or lower now have changed , anyway m30 tf showing sell signal comfirmed without price above( not believe indicator's count this time ) . so bounce may be limited before rech the support H4 next 1.3484.
I close all shorts at 1.3505 & now waiting it go up 1.3522>45>65>66 same before m30 sell signal confirmation needed or above.
no long but waiting same short signal.
fontu

Car (Driver) 55 where are you???? I remember you said you went long around 1.3550 area.....are you in the same group looking for 1.36-1.37ish or did you have a tight stop loss?


mm

Im not scalping as such as i am swinging. MY system is telling me a low was due yesterday and the price action got me long, the H4 candle and increase volume gave me confidence the turn was in. I can be wrong, so not wedded to the view.

I took profit off the table as i was expecting a pullback once we bust up out of the H1 BB after we broke through Mondays high. I am happy that my stop loss is below yesterdays low. I added at 61.8, but not full stakes, and can take the pain easily and will add at the 70.7 level and maybe the 88.6 level. My H1 RSI is very low and volume has increased on the last H1 candle.

My swing system is telling me that the next high is due 31st March, but i suspect it will come in a day or so earlier. It doesnt tell me yet at what price.

If we break yesterdays low, then i am out for a net loss, but i will be looking to get in from lower prices to go up. Doesnt hurt my pot and i know that we will rally again in the next 24 hours, either from a new low or from this retracemetn. Hope that makes sense.

For one... it is called P.I.I.G.S. for a reason.

And noone except Greece has any trouble in refinancing their debts...

what percentage of the debt is greece on ez?

what is population of greece,spain, portugal, italy and ireland combined and gdp? this probably has to do with 'forcing' the issue. also, as gator has said...this drop started before Greece news hit. it helped though

they are 1 of 16 members. it's not about population. just because there's only 11 million people, doesn't mean they don't matter. you sound like merkel. blame it on the bad, bad speculators. was the US complaining from 2000 to 2008 , as the euro went from .90 to 1.60. well, the EU should be quiet as it goes down to .90

Greece has 120% debt on Greece GDP, and dept ratio on EU GDP is 2.22%

Like I said... Its called P.I.I.G.S for a reason. Are you related to Sky?

Gator, I am very well prepare for that bear dishes

heh heh heh

You all from US think that you are a smart ass. Why then noone is talking about poor states in the US where GDP per capita is less than $20 000, and millions that lost homes, and still live in tents? What about California?

Nice inverted s-h-s on 1h euro....looking to pop the pivot.....and then some.....could be a lot of short covering before the big mtg on thur/fri.....




mm