EURUSD

Yeah, but I mean you see what a battle going on in EUR Zone for some lousy

50 billion, which would help Greece in the short term? Ben wouldn't even

think 1 second, this is like a pocket change for US Feds.. Freddie and Fanny

eat up like 80 times more.. I have no clue, what all this BS about going on

for month? WTF? It's like somebody pre-paid media campaign

Print that f* money and give it to them

already.. US prints, Everybody prints, IMF/ECB could print as well. Nobody can

and will ever pay this Debts back anyways..

My trendline analysis is showing that EUR is reversing, and its going to be in reversal mode for quite some time. The drop from the high of 5145 is a zig zag, not a impulse pattern. This zigzag has finished off already at the low of 3434, and further down is quite questionable. The drop from the high of 3818 is part of a corrective motion in the upward direction. The whole drop from 3818 is a tripple zigzag, not a impulse pattern. Tripple zigzags are corrective motions and for the drop of the EUR from 3818 to be counted as Wave 5 of something, we need to have a impulse pattern. We dont have that. There are several formations that quite possibly can be counted as authentic and probable formations that will eventually point upwards.

When a certain low is made and market is quite in agitation mode with bulls and bears waging war against each other such that a range of price of about 300 pips occurs, market tends to form triangles to break out of this price war. Triangles are the most misunderstood and powerfull of all Elliot patterns. Triangles cannot be visually seen untile the game is over, but they create a very strong atomosphere of confusion, that Flats, ZigZags, and impulse patterns dont create. One of the strongest indications that we are in the middle of a triangle is this constant shifting of opinion between bulls and bears in a tight range.

Whatever happened from the low of 3434 to 3818 is Wave A. We are in the process of having a "B wave triangle" being formed. The first segment (wave a) of this triangle is from 3818 to 3470. In a contracting triangle Wave a is the most powerfull and violent move. We can see that the thrust downwards from the high of 3818 has been quite powerfull, but the low of 3434 has not been breached, and as a matter of fact if you go to 5 minute and 1 minute time frames you see that trendlines for the down motion are being challenged and tendency is to have them broken.

If you pay attention to the circled zones on the above chart, you can see that they were not wishy washy zones, where motion could easily penetrate them. Motion had to retrace quite a bit higher to just have the capacity and potential energy to break them. We are looking at the 4000 level as a bare minimum retracement. The actual retracement given the amount of time that the EUR has spent in the 3400-3800 zone is much higher. If the EUR was going more down, it should have done that already, not wasted so much time in agitation mode. The fact that it did so, is a strong behavioral indication that things arent gonna go as expected and a dive to 1.3000 is not occuring soon. EUR is going to gain a bit of strength before that happens. The way that a trendline such as the one shown in the chart will break is through a phenomenon known as a "5th wave failure". If you go to the weekly chart a 5th wave hasnt yet formed, never mind its failure.

My advice: Buy at every low

Good Luck With This Info

Better for long...no reversal spotted based on candlestick
And vol is decreasing...i'll buy again at 1.3520 for a 100 pips move at least

3505-15 could be low for tomorrow if it close above 3540 and if it close there so i am hopeful we will see 3640-3680 tomorrow ..GL i am full of longs with you...


Ub

euro bulls are morons, usd will soon rally its way to 1.20 before the year ends .. euro is good toilet paper

are you saying you never open long positions?!

even if it does make it to 1.20 by the end of the year it wont be in a straight line, which means I can still open long positions every time my system tells me to and make profit as well as with short positions!!

morons are the ones that think profit can be made only one way!

thats obvious buy i keep hearing about how euro will hit 1.5 soon ?! ppl r blind ..

who knows business can make out of those toilet papares !let buy more & more now , pending set at higher levels & go for today. will check next morning if they are cheap enough to buy for me or any free usage .
good night .trade well all .
fontu

im not a long term trader... I have no idea where the price will be next month...

I'm a day trader. I trade what I see in the moment and not what will happen, and I try to make profit both ways...

once we leave this consolidation I'll be more careful going countertrend, which I don't know what it is yet...

Never heard of retracement or correction during a trend ??
Well some people are trading it....no need to insult people because they are trading against a trend....
It's not your money

Yeah, well said. I wonder if this persistent consolidation crap is getting on some peoples nerves? It's getting on mine, but as you say, no need to be rude.

#1 People are not necessarily EUR bulls but USD bears instead

#2 We in the range and nobody holding this for 6 month..

Sorry, that you miss the bottom, now wait till 1.37 and short then..

Yes it's getting on mine too mate...that's what i had to say it
Each people has his own point of view of the market
Anyway these kind of people are history....like the "crazy scalper" we've seen...you don't hear him anymore , he probably blew up his account

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank is prepared to reassess its collateral rules if necessary, softening the ECB’s stance as Greece struggles to cut the region’s largest budget deficit.

Any idea of what might be the impact of this news on the euro?

short at 1.3542, hope it goes well. stop at 75

I don´t know much about Elliot waves yet but your chart with TL´s looks just like mine...I even have TL´s drawn on the weekly chart and there I see Euro still in an uptrend as long as 1.30 didn´t break ( with time going on this number will also become higher of course ).

Thank you for your thorough analyzis - it helped me a lot to confirm my views :-)

I don't imagine that it will make much of a difference while Trichet is merely flappin' his gums.....but it's a slippery slope down if they were to actually do it. I mean, surely it would undermine the credibility of the bank if they were to relax the rules to suit someone who's on the verge of defaulting? May as well let the 'clients' set their own rules for the bank!!

The euro may slide against the dollar even if the EU devises a plan to aid Greece at the summit this week, according to Standard Bank Plc.
“It is a key week for Greece and the EU, which leaves euro-dollar staring over the precipice of a slide to $1.25,” Steve Barrow, head of Group of 10 currency strategy at the firm in London, wrote today in a report. “It might seem to be a problem of Greece’s own making but, in our view, it’s a problem of the EU’s own making and this means the euro will still fall even if Greece is helped.”



Read the whole article on bloomberg here

In other words it might change (edit) rules (to go easy on Greece to provide financing on perhaps better terms)

"Collateral, especially within banking, may traditionally refer to secured lending (also known as asset-based lending). More recently, complex collateralisation arrangements are used to secure trade transactions (also known as capital market collateralization). The former often presents unilateral obligations, secured in the form of property, surety, guarantee or other as collateral (originally denoted by the term security), whereas the latter often presents bilateral obligations secured by more liquid assets such as cash or securities, often known as margin. Another example might be to ask for collateral in exchange for holding something of value until it is returned (e.g., I'll hold onto your wallet while you borrow my cell phone). In many developing countries, the use of collateral is the main way to secure bank financing. The ease of acquiring a loan depends on the ability to use assets, whether real estate or any other; as collateral."