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  • #213,901
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:14pm Mar 20, 2010 9:14pm
Hi, new here, though I have been watching for some time. I am new to forex but not so much new to trading. A lot more by way of old school horse trading, so the charting is a little new. After some review of charts, I see that there might be an opportunity to buy before we go down any further.

I am trading off of a 1 hour time frame, so am using this as what I see.
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  • #213,902
  • Edited 10:06pm Mar 20, 2010 9:35pm | Edited 10:06pm
EU- Rejection from that big 50% fib (failure to progress in the retrace past it), Weekly Bearish Engulfing candle, and a channel break out south. I'm hoping for a pullback so I can build in some more shorts and using places I talked about before for my entry... 3580, 3620, 3660, 3700---Stops above 3820.

UC- USD/CHF looks like a turn point on the daily which means short EU. Daily bounce on the 50% fib retrace level.

AU- Plenty of room for down move which bodes well for EU down. Bounce on the DTL.

Oil- Yeah, looks like it's headed down soon also... Two spinners on that daily Trend Line. That chart is a weekly so people can put it into perspective.

Gold- Same story as all the others.


Some people in here are saying "everyone is going short so it must go long"... Well no, all you people are the ones trying to pick the bottom along with 90% of other traders and go long. You can make money on longs but it all depends on your time frame and what your plan is.

Let's take Gold for instance... Have you ever seen so many commercials, ads, radio advertisements to buy gold? Seems we can't do anything these days without seeing 5 ads saying the smart things is to BUY gold. According to them all you have to do is buy Gold and you'll double or triple your money. They say it's the only "Safe" investment left in the world. It's at that point where EVERYONE IS BUYING GOLD. This happens in history and the same result always occurs, I'll let you guess here. Mabye you should put Gold on a Monthly and decide if it's a good place to buy.

The correlations are in place my friends. Am I saying it's about to fall through the floor today or tomorrow? NO, I'm just trying to show the big picture. Things are in place but ultimately you have to make your trades.

Either way you're trading I hope we all learn more this week and let's make some $$$.
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  • #213,903
  • Mar 20, 2010 11:12pm Mar 20, 2010 11:12pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
Not salmon season yet. #344

I'm with ya Coke. I think it will bounce as I said in my post. The first 3 fibs on the way up have other major things there also, and then the 61.8% at 3700 has tons around 3690-3700.

That's why I'm phasing in to this, I will build as it rises with stops above the previous high + a little.

Let's have fun this week!
  • #213,904
  • Mar 20, 2010 11:36pm Mar 20, 2010 11:36pm
Quoting ak4x
Consider it done. Your (bolded) reply was about what I predicted it would be but I was a little disappointed. I was hoping for some of that Skyzer Flair before you make the List... that doesn't address the issue of all those that quote you tho.

Fortunately I have a solution for that as well...
Good quote Ak4x, should not he left to see any on FF next .
lol.
(personal views : Anyway I never do ignore nor ever like others do but like people to talk about forex & trades whatever way it done.Nobody knows what next exactly & so as a benefit of doubt every analysis or trades is excuseable & even executable.
Please pardon everybody in your ignorelist or every prospects /member of FF .)
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #213,905
  • Mar 20, 2010 11:37pm Mar 20, 2010 11:37pm
I won't be looking long until there is some kind of concrete news re: resolution for Greece debt fix. India surprise rate bump last week - haha - we were expecting China but India came instead. Thank you come again? India will. China maybe soon. You might get some deadcat action back to 1.36xx nearterm but if there be (aaargh) dicey PIGS news or more money supply tightening out of China or almost anywhere then look out below.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #213,906
  • Edited 11:51pm Mar 20, 2010 11:48pm | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting mmccormac
I'm with ya Coke. I think it will bounce as I said in my post. The first 3 fibs on the way up have other major things there also, and then the 61.8% at 3700 has tons around 3690-3700.

That's why I'm phasing in to this, I will build as it rises with stops above the previous high + a little.

Let's have fun this week!
Well, I have to disagree with you guys. I can see a bear flag in the making right where we are, and I can see it possibly extending as far as 3570-ish. After that, I think the lows of the 3440's are going to be tested. Whether they hold or not we'll see, but 3700?.....I don't think so. I can see why you think what you think, but I think the consolidation is over...this up and down crap is finished...imo.

Have a look at the 8H chart and you'll see what I mean......of course, I could be wrong.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #213,907
  • Mar 21, 2010 12:22am Mar 21, 2010 12:22am
Quoting realjumper
Well, I have to disagree with you guys. I can see a bear flag in the making right where we are, and I can see it possibly extending as far as 3570-ish. After that, I think the lows of the 3440's are going to be tested. Whether they hold or not we'll see, but 3700?.....I don't think so. I can see why you think what you think, but I think the consolidation is over...this up and down crap is finished...imo.

Have a look at the 8H chart and you'll see what I mean......of course, I could be wrong.
Read my post before with the charts... I'm adding shorts at 3570, 3620, 3660, 3690 (close to 3700).

I agree with you and I don't know where it will turn which is why I'll be selling at those spots as I said in my first post with charts. I see where Coke is coming from also and he's looking for the lower risk entry. I'm just looking to build shorts as it moves up. You may be right it may just blow down and that would be ok with me as well, but nobody knows for sure how high it will go.

Have fun.
  • #213,908
  • Mar 21, 2010 1:17am Mar 21, 2010 1:17am
euro is heading lower. I'll probably be looking for it to hit the upper 1.20's in a month or 2
  • #213,909
  • Edited 1:36am Mar 21, 2010 1:24am | Edited 1:36am
if we keep following these foot steps we will have 500 pips a day movement again.

ponder this.. the last high for eurox was in early 2008 ish. the low for usdx was in early 2008 ish.. a 2 year trend that the eu did not show.. if its catching up this will be fun.. ignore chart.. ill explain as needed... but its working.. bear moves since the high of 2008.. just on a bigger scale. we just completed a chart.. with the last purple line crossed .. we also crossed a mid (blue c). and are respecting it atm..(our recent jan low) blue level. the white level just below is a (c also) c=mid... but below that the lines are getting further apart. look at the bigger moves in the future below 3400.. hey, time only gives up secrets... tick tock

all above info was taken pryer to 2009 excluding candles. just pure unbiased math..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,910
  • Mar 21, 2010 1:34am Mar 21, 2010 1:34am
Quoting realjumper
Well, I have to disagree with you guys. I can see a bear flag in the making right where we are, and I can see it possibly extending as far as 3570-ish. After that, I think the lows of the 3440's are going to be tested. Whether they hold or not we'll see, but 3700?.....I don't think so. I can see why you think what you think, but I think the consolidation is over...this up and down crap is finished...imo.

Have a look at the 8H chart and you'll see what I mean......of course, I could be wrong.
atm all i can see is 3575 plus slip as a retrace.. if i recall correctly the mid was 30.. we were unable to get above some charted levels.. im not saying we cant get up there. but im saying its unlikely. 3622 should be concrete without major geopolitical news. concrete does crack..usually unstabilty strengthens usd. anway ill build shorts up till 359.5 if it happens..hell ill build them if it dont..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,911
  • Mar 21, 2010 1:45am Mar 21, 2010 1:45am
Quoting gatorinla
atm all i can see is 3575 plus slip as a retrace.. if i recall correctly the mid was 30.. we were unable to get above some charted levels.. im not saying we cant get up there. but im saying its unlikely. 3622 should be concrete without major geopolitical news. concrete does crack..usually unstabilty strengthens usd. anway ill build shorts up till 359.5 if it happens..hell ill build them if it dont..
Yep, that all fits in with what I'm thinking....as I said, I could be wrong but I will be watching this very closely tomorrow. Perhaps nothing much will happen until UK comes online seeing as Tokyo is having a day off....

I wonder what effect, if any, the vote re Obamas health plan will have if he loses?

Regardless, the EZ woes are far more significant imo.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #213,912
  • Mar 21, 2010 2:49am Mar 21, 2010 2:49am
Quoting nawafasad1
this is the count on gold may be you should consider the bearish view .
Thanks for the good analysis again . yes it seems so but trading /predicting consolidation is more a gambling as in gold now .

In weekly price may need more up but close below 1119 or below 1066 to have buy signal confirm , before that, in H4 price need go above 1119 to continue buy cd or fall much down to continue new setup while h1 & daily already have buy signal .
HS also there big ( upside) & smaller one ( downside which should act first). so price may move 1103>1110> 1091/83>1122/26 ( /1138/35/30)> 1088/83/72.
upside 1138/35/30 can test anytime or even again & again before the fall to or below 1072.

lots of drawdown may happen if try one way so conervative but risky scalping from apparent top or bottom will play targeting the mid zone 1100 before confirm move up or down.
anything can happen .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #213,913
  • Edited 5:36am Mar 21, 2010 5:19am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting The Fool
I won't be looking long until there is some kind of concrete news re: resolution for Greece debt fix. India surprise rate bump last week - haha - we were expecting China but India came instead. Thank you come again? India will. China maybe soon. You might get some deadcat action back to 1.36xx nearterm but if there be (aaargh) dicey PIGS news or more money supply tightening out of China or almost anywhere then look out below.

I didn't see it coming, but I remember seeing a chart of Indias Inflation from February and when you see it, it is clear, that they had to try and lessen inflation.

Die Preise von Hülsenfrüchten stiegen um +35,7% zum Vorjahr, der Preis von Kartoffeln stieg um +30,4%, Weizen +14,93%, Milch +14,2% und Reis um +9,5%.

Prices of beans went up 35,7 % potatoes up 30,4 % wheat 14,93 %, milk 14,2 % and rice 9,5% in compare to last year.
According to this source 800 million Indians have to live of less than 2 Dollars per day. 250 million Indians suffer under hunger.
The wholesale price index rose 8,6 %. An estimated 440 million of 1.2 billion Indians are currently under the age of 18. In 2050 there could be about 1,7 billion people in India.

Link: http://eaindustry.nic.in/asp2/list1.asp
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  • #213,914
  • Mar 21, 2010 6:43am Mar 21, 2010 6:43am
Quoting mmccormac

Oil- Yeah, looks like it's headed down soon also... Two spinners on that daily Trend Line. That chart is a weekly so people can put it into perspective.
Gold- Same story as all the others.
Won't comment on currencies as everyone is short anyway, so no reason.

But as for commodities I think you guys just forgot what was this Friday:

Futures/options contracts expiration. Oil yes, maybe going "down" to 80

or 79.50 and GOLD 1100 (break that first and then we'll talk) I'm expecting

GOLD move up 10$ at least on Monday, under normal Market conditions.

P.S. by July 4 OIL should be at it's pick, I'm betting on $100/b, let's watch.
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  • #213,915
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:00am Mar 21, 2010 7:00am
This is interesting:

China's commerce minister warned the United States on Sunday against imposing trade sanctions over Beijing's currency controls, and said his country was likely to report a trade deficit in March.

China's global trade surplus was $7.6 billion in February and the combined January-February surplus was $21.8 billion. Its trade surplus with the United States in the January-February period shrank by 27 percent to $20.9 billion. The gap with the 27-nation European Union, China's biggest trading partner, widened by 34 percent to $22.3 billion.
China's combined trade surpluses with its major export markets were larger than its global surplus because it also ran substantial deficits with Australia, Brazil, Taiwan and other suppliers of iron ore, industrial components and other materials needed by its booming export manufacturers.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-...&asset=&ccode=

A trade deficit?
  • #213,916
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:25am Mar 21, 2010 7:25am
Another technical view to support continuation of bearishness.

"What Does Outside Reversal Mean?
A charting trend in which a stock price's high and low for the day exceed those of the preceding day.

Investopedia explains Outside Reversal

Depending on where the outside reversal occurs, it may signal either a bearish or bullish price movement. If the reversal occurs at the stock's resistance level, it is viewed as bearish. In contrast, if it occurs at the stock's support level, it is viewed as bullish."
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Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #213,917
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:42am Mar 21, 2010 7:42am
"Peter Schiff on Krugman and the End Game for the Dollar"

By William L. Anderson|Mar 21, 2010, 4:57 AM

http://wallstreetpit.com/20859-peter...for-the-dollar

"The USD is not invincible. At the present time, with all of the other fiat currencies floating around, it still is relatively viable, but that situation cannot last forever or even for a few years. Krugman really seems to believe that the Fed endlessly can print dollars, and only good things can come from it. That is not economics, folks, that is madness."
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  • #213,918
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:42am Mar 21, 2010 7:42am
@Sky

Didn't you say that you don't pay much attention to support taken from lows of candles/bars?

This time you seem to be banking on lows of weekly dojis holding. I am not saying that they will or won't hold, just curious why bank on them if you look at support taken from a body rather than actual low?
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #213,919
  • Mar 21, 2010 8:00am Mar 21, 2010 8:00am
[quote=Kurti;3569939]
Quoting Kurti

edit: Or maybe not, maybe it crashes down 3000 pips over the weekend, because the Greek have started a revolution and declared an independent socialistic state, with ties to Kuba and Venezuela of course and maybe a bit Iran in there also and would declare war on the USA. The EU would have to follow their treaties and go to war with the US. AAARRARGRGRGRGRGGR!!! I am shorting!!!
That would be status quo, not a revolution

Greece is 2% of EC GDP total. How much more can the ant hill be made a mountain???

For all her posturing I'm sure Merkel sheds a tear for every new BMW that rolls out of the factory and into the shipping containers. Maybe they could have prevented a small portion of this debt by not paying off our politicians to buy military equipment from them at triple the market value... Oh when the media sings a single tune.

On a brighter note, if our society were to completely collapse we could cannibalize bureaucrats for a decade and end up better off for it. Onward and upward to a brighter future

There is another recent post here requiring a European landing on mars to take a long..... As long (no pun intended) as the market is entirely convinced that the Euro cannot rise against the DOLLAR

At 1.5 I was thoroughly convinced we were heading to 1.21 without knowing the reason. Now that those reasons for the turn have been revealed I would not be shocked by a triangle forming on the weekly chart.
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  • #213,920
  • Mar 21, 2010 8:10am Mar 21, 2010 8:10am
Quoting jsspmk
@Sky
Didn't you say that you don't pay much attention to support taken from lows of candles/bars?
This time you seem to be banking on lows of weekly dojis holding. I
This doji look no different to me then previous 4, if I take spooky expiration

date and India Interest rate rise at the same time into consideration, that's

only

why that doji has extended to the bottom,

EU wouldn't fall that much just in normal trading

day.. If commodities bounce back on Monday then EU should return in 1.36+

range. If DOW tanks again, then Longs will be under pressure.
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