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  • #213,861
  • Mar 20, 2010 8:29am Mar 20, 2010 8:29am
Quoting fontu
Jjust seeing chart with mm & channels,in H4 before ultimate resistant may it not test 3/8 bottom trading zone from the very bottom of the channel if break & if sucess why not 4/8mm pivot?

in weekly , a bounce may be likely even bear so strong but before test the bottom trading zome .
Things may not so straight forward, A head fake you suspect perhaps ?
fontu
  • #213,862
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:18am Mar 20, 2010 9:18am
Quoting egkid
BTW, Are you still Buying
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...id#post3314232
Will buy until the bounce, on the top of which I'm going to exit.

I expect volatility in the pair next week due to EU conference.

Shorts also not going to be so sure, cause who's going to be caught with

their pants down, if Greece will finally receive Money either from IMF or

Germany or Both.. Besides ranging zone is [low 1.34 and low 1.38]

That's were I expect EU to stay in those brackets next week.
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  • #213,863
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:29am Mar 20, 2010 9:29am
lots of talk about ec...

redline is the 2008 bottom.. if this demo is telling the truth. white dotted lines are actual move fibs. the other colored are predictive one. levels just to keep an eye out for s/r bounces, entries, exits ect.... i dont see a reason why why stopped where we did except. the swiss itervention. any way the euro looks in deep shit. and if the euro dont recover, so are the swiss. after all it would be a bad bet. the euro verses usd is down over 10% since nov.. so you can see how easily the swiss could be left holding the bag in a few short months.
i dont use indis, but i did here and it expects a bounce of some type. but i dont trust it with the intervention. anyway if your short biased id still wait for a bounce of some short. and gradually enter.. those levels should be good. although thie pair is less precise then eu.. so 10/15 pip grenade aproach may help.
the yellow (shorter term) are the smaller and the dominent atm the pink (mid term) are fading in as the move develops. the green (longer term) will become more prominent later also. drawing a fib between like colored lines will help in shorter term trading.

good luck
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,864
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:30am Mar 20, 2010 9:30am
Thanks egkid & grashid . anyway anything happen , MM are subject to break anytime & do channels .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #213,865
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:32am Mar 20, 2010 9:32am
tl may force bounce also..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,866
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:35am Mar 20, 2010 9:35am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Ok here is how his analysis work (he's right on some and wrong on some as well): Oscar talks on Thursday about

Dow Transportation index and showing Bull Bar for further upside

and Friday? Boom, sorry, DOW tanked.. So that's all it is, just a Guess

probability and nothing more.

Believe it or not, some people are trading based on Moon fazes and why they do that if everything

so clear and easy just using candlesticks, bars or whatever?

A bear flag in a down trending Market is a sign of weakening price action, yes down trending, please don't post 4 hour chart to prove there is no trend, weekly is in down trend. So I would rather take A bear flag than your idiom of dollar is trash.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #213,867
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:39am Mar 20, 2010 9:39am
Guys just express your opinions without getting personal. We don't need adjectives to describe our opinions just facts. The markets not even open. At least wait for the bell before you fight lol.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #213,868
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:45am Mar 20, 2010 9:45am
Quoting gatorinla
i dont see a reason why why stopped where we did except. the swiss itervention. any way the euro looks in deep shit. and if the euro dont recover, so are the swiss.
And that's the main reason for Greece bailout. Cause at the end it's going

to be cheaper to loan money to Greece, calm financial Markets and lift

Euro, then do nothing and let the Euro drop, in which case Greece bailout price

tag will look like peanuts compare to what Swiss going to lose, if EUR keep falling.

EURCHF pair action showing me, that resolution is on its way, to others

it shows that it will go to zero.. Well, we'll see.
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  • #213,869
  • Mar 20, 2010 9:50am Mar 20, 2010 9:50am
Quoting SkyzerFX
In that matter I'll tell you very simple idea. When 99% of the traders so

sure it's going to go to 1.32, EU will move in appositive direction, cause

otherwise 99% would always win and reality exactly appositive. Fair enough?

Now, "European Union Summit Next Week (25 March)"

"Speaking in Brussels on Friday, EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso emphasized the need for EU member states to agree on a financing mechanism for Greece, after Athens said it might turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for help."

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5374078,00.html...

*L* wrong..

although i can see the logic behind it.. you have to peel back the layers.
most traders that trade with a trend are right.. and still fail. they dont use proper m/m and over leverge. they get cocky and up their trade before their account can handle the drawdowns. this is why they fail. because in all moves there pull backs.. and they hold the loser till margin stops them out. and then the trend resumes. you can trade both sides and make money. you can trade both sides and lose money. that all depends on the trader. a bad trader will lose even in a trend.. it boils down to the mirror. the trade dont mean shit.. a lossing trade can be a winner just by not holding it. the only thing that means anything is gradual account growing.. your account is the most importent thing in trading.. not the trade your in..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,870
  • Mar 20, 2010 10:00am Mar 20, 2010 10:00am
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1269096642
Quoting england33
Guys just express your opinions without getting personal. We don't need adjectives to describe our opinions just facts. The markets not even open. At least wait for the bell before you fight lol.
I think this gone up...but maybe not this month
  • #213,871
  • Mar 20, 2010 10:05am Mar 20, 2010 10:05am
Quoting fontu
Thanks egkid & grashid . anyway anything happen , MM are subject to break anytime & do channels .
fontu
i agree with you fonto on a small bounce to 1.37 then down to finish wave 5 . 161.8 fib of the last pullback will take it to 1.32 . gl
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  • #213,872
  • Edited 10:35am Mar 20, 2010 10:21am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting jsspmk
please don't post 4 hour chart to prove there is no trend, weekly is in down trend. So I would rather take A bear flag than your idiom of dollar is trash.
Speaking of trend, EURUSD still in uptrend since 2001, but yes the bottom of it could be

in 1.28-1.30 area. Here, Monthly, and you choose the direction you like,

generally speaking it's more reasons to buy here for 1.65, then sell for 1.30. If this would be a stock chart,

I'd start to picking up some shares, right about now:
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  • #213,873
  • Mar 20, 2010 10:32am Mar 20, 2010 10:32am
Another couple of trend lines added, nice "downtrend"
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  • #213,874
  • Mar 20, 2010 10:33am Mar 20, 2010 10:33am
Quoting gatorinla
*L* wrong..

although i can see the logic behind it.. you have to peel back the layers.
most traders that trade with a trend are right.. and still fail. they dont use proper m/m and over leverge. they get cocky and up their trade before their account can handle the drawdowns. this is why they fail. because in all moves there pull backs.. and they hold the loser till margin stops them out. and then the trend resumes. you can trade both sides and make money. you can trade both sides and lose money. that all depends on the trader. a bad trader will...
This is so true, that I have to cry. No not really cry, but still true. I see it as trading your account
  • #213,875
  • Mar 20, 2010 12:00pm Mar 20, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Another couple of trend lines added, nice "downtrend"

Main problem on that chart is failure at 1.51, Eur didn't even double top, it failed 900 pips below 1.6
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #213,876
  • Mar 20, 2010 1:05pm Mar 20, 2010 1:05pm
Okie guys, just simply let Skyzer follow what he trusts...In Forex, nothing certain...Skyzer's idea, though sounding wrong, still not impossible..

I'm still short-bias.. Price broke the up channel, USD strength, Euro weakness, so the probability for EU heading south is quite high... i will wait for a bounce to 3650 or 3700 to add my short...target 1.3450 or even 1.2800
  • #213,877
  • Mar 20, 2010 1:15pm Mar 20, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Another couple of trend lines added, nice "downtrend"
I have to be a smartass, I am sorry.

Your way of thinking might be valid, we could be in an overall uptrend, but that uptrend has stopped through the fall under the candle before the first down candle, maybe you could have waited a bit, because you were still long from months before and could afford it. So after it fell under the candle before the signal candle, you would probably think there could be a stop to the uptrend and a correction.
Now you would wait until a signal has developed that would let you enter long again. On the monthly chart there is none, because the monthly bar hasn't closed yet and the bar before isn't signal bar. So now you can go to the weekly chart and look for signs of a very keen and aggressive entry, pick a bottom so to speak.
The last few weeks surely were exciting, whew, but we haven't been presented with a very convincing buying action, we are still in a range, so now you can look for bottom of this range, but haven't been presented signs of a probable rally developing on the smaller timeframes. So now you wait again.
What you did is a possible way to trade, but you must have a very high conviction that the Euro will rise another 3000 pips upwards in the next few months or are you very longterm? Because thats what you are willing to risk, if you are still holding a long from 1,50, how I have read, can't say if it's true.
I salute your conviction and wish you the best, but such long timeframes are nothing for me.
  • #213,878
  • Mar 20, 2010 1:17pm Mar 20, 2010 1:17pm
Hope everyone has a great weekend!
  • #213,879
  • Mar 20, 2010 1:37pm Mar 20, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting mfoste1
Hope everyone has a great weekend!
That's a point of view thingy, but I want to kill myself, can you please help me?

Just a joke, a stupid one, yes I admit it, and spoiled even more through my pointing out of the joke, but still a joke! Sorry, I should now lay my keyboard down. Good night, and have great weekend too. Whatever that might be
  • #213,880
  • Mar 20, 2010 1:49pm Mar 20, 2010 1:49pm
Gator

That is so true, man when I look back over the accounts I blown due to MM and the stubborn ability to not close my trade because I could'nt face the fact I was wrong at that particuliar time, has awaken me, and now I'm slowly seeing my account grow, I will cut a bad trade off as quick as a snake head I fear trying t bite me without any thoughts or hesistation but only to reenter when there a clear sign or high probability trade move in the apporate direction of choice. I paid good hard earn money to learn this lesson.

Quoting gatorinla
*L* wrong..

although i can see the logic behind it.. you have to peel back the layers.
most traders that trade with a trend are right.. and still fail. they dont use proper m/m and over leverge. they get cocky and up their trade before their account can handle the drawdowns. this is why they fail. because in all moves there pull backs.. and they hold the loser till margin stops them out. and then the trend resumes. you can trade both sides and make money. you can trade both sides and lose money. that all depends on the trader. a bad trader will...
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