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  • #213,801
  • Mar 19, 2010 4:17pm Mar 19, 2010 4:17pm
Exactly my point when you can see that all this pair has done is to Range then you begin to make money
Dean


Quoting jsspmk
Eur/Usd settling at last week's low which is also weekly low from 5 weeks ago.
  • #213,802
  • Mar 19, 2010 4:18pm Mar 19, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting realjumper
Fwiw...and imo....if we get a new low (sub 3430) next week......it's all over for the bulls.......
Not so far to go now

A great day/night was had.......see you next week
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #213,803
  • Edited 4:40pm Mar 19, 2010 4:19pm | Edited 4:40pm
Quoting jsspmk
Eur/Usd settling at last week's low which is also weekly low from 5 weeks ago.

And lowest vol from the last 7 weeks...and the lowest vol from monday close (monday is usually low vol anyway)
And if we exclude monday...it's the lowest vol since a month ago....very annoying....gotta take care of it

For a 4 witches day something definitely not right on this down move
I would have expected high vol during this day
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #213,804
  • Mar 19, 2010 4:33pm Mar 19, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting jsspmk
Eur/Usd settling at last week's low which is also weekly low from 5 weeks ago.
It's happens to be an option and futures expiration contract day, that,s why.

Ohh, no, please, sky is falling... Keep shorting..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4_eu_no_no_trend2.jpg Size: 229 KB
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  • #213,805
  • Mar 19, 2010 4:37pm Mar 19, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting kuroro001
And lowest vol from the last 7 weeks...and the lowest vol from monday close (monday is usually low vol anyway)

For a 4 witches day something definitely not right on this down move
I would have expected high vol during this day
I must confess, in this quiet time, that I don't know a great deal about volume. Having said that, I respect the knowledge that Malcolm has and that he shares with us all here. Now, I have done my very best to understand this, and it almost had me second guessing my own analysis of the charts.....almost. I'm very very glad that I listened to everyones point of view, but I'm even more happy that I stuck to my guns and traded what *I* believed in the end.

Very early in my trading life I got blasted my some people here, and I probably deserved it, for saying that many people in this forum seem to act like sheep and follow the one's they feel are the leaders. However, I still think that. If would rather be wrong and let my MM protect me, than to be right soley because I followed someone else.

In my opinion, there is nothing better than being right, based on my own analysis......similarly, there is no problem in being wrong, based on my own analysis, for that is how I learn. So long as MM keeps the damage under control, I see it as a win/win situation, in terms of education.

There's some people here for whom I have great respect and regard, and there's many more who I see as sheep....blast away at me if you want, but that's the way I see it.

I trade my plan, right or wrong, sometimes I lose, but I never fail to learn.

5c
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #213,806
  • Mar 19, 2010 4:45pm Mar 19, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting realjumper
I must confess, in this quiet time, that I don't know a great deal about volume. Having said that, I respect the knowledge that Malcolm has and that he shares with us all here. Now, I have done my very best to understand this, and it almost had me second guessing my own analysis of the charts.....almost. I'm very very glad that I listened to everyones point of view, but I'm even more happy that I stuck to my guns and traded what *I* believed in the end.

Very early in my trading life I got blasted my some people here, and I probably deserved it,...
I totally agree about the fact that you gotta have our own trading plan...make your own decisions..etc...
That's what i do...i did listen to some people here before...which make me lose money while they were earning ones..

But about the "sheep" part....i maybe didn't understand you but by what you meant you consider me as one of this sheep ? because i trade with vol ?

Good luck for your next week
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #213,807
  • Mar 19, 2010 4:57pm Mar 19, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting kuroro001
But about the "sheep" part....i maybe didn't understand you but by what you meant you consider me as one of this sheep ? because i trade with vol ?

Good luck for your next week
No, I don't consider you ( or most of the regulars here ) as a sheep.....sorry if it came out that way. I was talking about the casual traders here that seem to blindly follow what the more senior members do, without understanding that the senior members are trading their own plan, for their own reasons. For sure the senior members will be doing well for themselves, but imo, if someone with not too much knowledge just blindly follows their calls, they will get burnt, and more importantly, will not understand WHY they got burnt.

That's why I see the various 'signal services' that are available as a pure waste of time and money.....some people however, seem to regard this forum as a free signal service. They will get burnt too, and they won't learn anything either!!

I hope you have a great week next week too
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #213,808
  • Mar 19, 2010 5:07pm Mar 19, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
I don't use Stop Loss, I'll bail out in profit or (even/small loss) next

time pair retraced, or you think it's going to 1.20 in straight line, good for you then?

If you so sure, sell your house and Short EUR, what can I say..
We'll see what's up next week..

Quoting SkyzerFX
Yes I'm Longing.. And you going to watch and learn, later... Or go short if

you sure it's going to Zero..

so are you living in a cardboard box now? because I've been hearing you going long from 5000

All those posts you put up sounds clever, but i told you before - having to be right, makes you obsolete.
Stop talking & learn to trade son.

Enjoy your weekend
Thank You
  • #213,809
  • Mar 19, 2010 5:19pm Mar 19, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
It's happens to be an option and futures expiration contract day, that,s why.

Ohh, no, please, sky is falling... Keep shorting..

That target fits with my plan also (Looking to build more EU shorts as it rises)... I'm shorting at 3570, 3620, 3660, and 3700 (Stops above the 3820 high). I like to build in but if it stops earlier at least I'll have added some extra shorts in before it turns.

Edit: I have reasons for those numbers but I'll post a chart first day of the week. They are Fibs + other tension bands combined.
  • #213,810
  • Mar 19, 2010 5:23pm Mar 19, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting PriceVolume
Thanks Mike, I appreciate it. Agreed on the issue of terminology - if there was a peanut butter sandwich "indicator" or method that consistently worked.....I'd smear myself from head to toe with chunky JIFF.
well, it was worth a try. have a good weekend
http://solveacrime.files.wordpress.c...anutbutter.jpg
  • #213,811
  • Mar 19, 2010 5:25pm Mar 19, 2010 5:25pm
I use daily chart as a signal for weekly trends. Let's check out some indicators.

Macd histogram on monthly - negative
Macd histogram on weekly - negative
Macd histogram on daily - above centreline declined to 0

The latter is a signal for people that trade daily upwards to abandon longs and go short or simply remain short. Volume? You will get volume next week.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #213,812
  • Mar 19, 2010 6:26pm Mar 19, 2010 6:26pm
"EURO Net Short Positions retreat From Record Levels - Scotia" (That's today / option exp day)

Shorts using current downturn to get the heck out..
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  • #213,813
  • Edited 7:15pm Mar 19, 2010 6:42pm | Edited 7:15pm
Quoting wormboy
so are you living in a cardboard box now?
What is that hawkish talk about, dear Monthly chart trader ? Let me guess?

You are so happy because

hairy Dollar finally move up few pips up and show some signs of live?

Guess what, ain't going to be long before it will drop dead again.. 2-3 days

tops.

Those guys finally woke up, after been sleeping for about 2 month of

sideways action hopping for

Better TP target, squeezing few more pips on the downside (Don't get too

greedy, ain't your chance to

get better price, bro, we going to get back to the range 1.36-1.37 and

you can keep sleeping until you get LONG signal Popup on your weekly chart at 1.45

Thanks anyway for advise, Nice skills pop's..

I hope you will live long enough to scalp some money of Forex from your Weekly for my

"cardboard box"...
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  • #213,814
  • Edited 7:13pm Mar 19, 2010 7:01pm | Edited 7:13pm
Couple more charts.. Here is your bottom. First top chart showing that red bar.

That's the most VOL ever for EU, bottom chart zoomed out:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d1_bottom_vol.jpg Size: 264 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: d2_bottom_vol.jpg Size: 274 KB
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  • #213,815
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:14pm Mar 19, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
What is that hawkish talk about, dear Monthly chart trader ? Let me guess?

You are so happy because

hairy Dollar finally move up few pips up and show some signs of live?

Guess what, ain't going to be long before it will drop dead again.. 2-3 days

tops.

Those guys finally wake up, after been sleeping for about 2 month of

sideways action hopping for

Better TP target, squeezing few more pips on the downside (Don't get too

greedy, ain't your chance to

get better price, bro, we going to get back to the range 1.36-1.37 and

you...
You can be right Sky #343
  • #213,816
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:18pm Mar 19, 2010 7:18pm
You are right about EU. I am buying anything that gets so oversold. That volume means only one thing- buying--no idiot is seeling euro on bucket loads at this massive support.

Quoting SkyzerFX
Couple more charts.. Here is your bottom. First top chart showing that red bar.

That's the most VOL ever for EU, bottom chart zoomed out:
Its all in the mind.
  • #213,817
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:18pm Mar 19, 2010 7:18pm
Sky, do yo have latest latest COT report please?

I feel my long now not safe anymore. it looks like this is the first time ever it close below doji. I think it can go to 1.3200 next week.
  • #213,818
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:19pm Mar 19, 2010 7:19pm
what about it? COT report shows that the large traders have cut down on EURO shorts aggressive. Shorts cut down -18K contracts. Longs increased 10K contracts.

Quoting forex888
Sky, do yo have latest latest COT report please?

I feel my long now not safe anymore. it looks like this is the first time ever it close below doji. I think it can go to 1.3200 next week.
Its all in the mind.
  • #213,819
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:26pm Mar 19, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
What is that hawkish talk about, dear Monthly chart trader ? Let me guess?

You are so happy because

hairy...
The fun never ends here.
  • #213,820
  • Mar 19, 2010 7:26pm Mar 19, 2010 7:26pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
You can be right Sky #343
Nice chart, TL_Coke

Forex888, thanks to remind me, I was suprise, I just run that report

and USD LONGS decrease substantially from 40000 down to 28000 (It's actually looks and act like ADX place it on your chart

you'll see, wnen GREEN going down means LONGS losing steam, when both line crosses that means trend change confirmed.)

chart looks good now... P.S I'm got to go, thank you all

here is that Current (today) COT Image
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Latest_COT_REPORT.png Size: 58 KB
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