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  • #213,081
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:59pm Mar 18, 2010 3:59pm
Quoting petehnm
Hey Gator I got the fact that things for the Euro tanked because there was a rumor of a discount rate hike by the fed , and all the news about Greece semms like the same ol same ol.. so why are we still stuck here at 1.3608 shouldn't we at least go up to th mid 20's or 30's?

News after the fact is usually just reporters trying to find reasons for a move...

Let's say we're in a downtrend and it hits a key level for a pull back/retrace: You'll hear news stories about how X currency is gaining strength due to the fact that X happened today.

They make stuff up to justify what the markets HAVE ALREADY DONE but the truth is they really have no clue. I would not make it a habit to listen to financial reporters, they're writing about trading because they don't know how to trade.
  • #213,082
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:02pm Mar 18, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting Rgali1
SKY I think buying usd/cad looks like a better bet from here just my honest opinion for what its worth.
I'm betting on Dollar decline overall, so I'm not buying USDCAD, sorry. And the only few

currencies, which are lagging general USDx trend is EUR and GBP.. Those Democrats

will drug Health Care reform through the Congress sooner or later, that's another Trillion $, which

supposed to "Cut" deficit in the long term (10 years). Perhaps Deficit will be

cut by devaluating the Dollar for another 70% that's how Us deficit can

only be cut by Dollar FACE value and who cares, if in 10 years USD will

only worth todays $0.10, right.? Everyone please play your own system.. And

nothing has been change for shorts or for longs here.. Range trading still..

Let's see if you, USD bullies, can push into mid 1.34, so I can get it more

cheaper.. I'll be selling it back to you, when you comfortable to take EU long

over 1.3850, - fine with me..
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #213,083
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:09pm Mar 18, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting petehnm
Hey Gator I got the fact that things for the Euro tanked because there was a rumor of a discount rate hike by the fed , and all the news about Greece semms like the same ol same ol.. so why are we still stuck here at 1.3608 shouldn't we at least go up to th mid 20's or 30's?
3622 has been on your charts for years.. atm its the center of the universe. at least till 3052 comes into the picture
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,084
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:10pm Mar 18, 2010 4:10pm
i'm getting a feeling that the big boys are waiting for 3500 to long...

from 3rd february we had +48hours like 90% bearish with 440 pips down...

will it happen again??
  • #213,085
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:10pm Mar 18, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting mmccormac
News after the fact is usually just reporters trying to find reasons for a move...

Let's say we're in a downtrend and it hits a key level for a pull back/retrace: You'll hear news stories about how X currency is gaining strength due to the fact that X happened today.

They make stuff up to justify what the markets HAVE ALREADY DONE but the truth is they really have no clue. I would not make it a habit to listen to financial reporters, they're writing about trading because they don't know how to trade.
first thanks mmccormac that makes sense...so do you see this going back to 1.3585 before any move up?
  • #213,086
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:11pm Mar 18, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting petehnm
Hey Gator I got the fact that things for the Euro tanked because there was a rumor of a discount rate hike by the fed , and all the news about Greece semms like the same ol same ol.. so why are we still stuck here at 1.3608 shouldn't we at least go up to th mid 20's or 30's?

Discount rate thing is not on calendar so I guess the pair no reaction to that but might have little effect in long running.
  • #213,087
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:16pm Mar 18, 2010 4:16pm
"...Germany did this but failed and bankrupted their country after World War I. But the Germans wanted to bankrupt their currency. They didn't want to pay off their war debts and the smart money wanted to turn the middle class against the occupation government. So they simply printed up paper until it filled wheelbarrows. They did not use due diligence and have proper controls. They didn't care. What they did was not a accident. It was a planned bankruptcy. You can be sure that the big boys in German currency had all their cash in something other than the Mark. Of course, there is the possibility that our National Debt is also planned. The design of the plan being to keep the general population thinking that they are broke, so that they won't be suggesting any free social programs for the welfare state. I mean, you must have noticed that no matter how large the National Debt, we always have enough money for another war."
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Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #213,088
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:18pm Mar 18, 2010 4:18pm
Hello all, I've joined this forum few days ago. I would like to share my knowledge with other traders and give forexfactory community as much as you gave me. From my analysis (H4 and Weekly) there is one thing that come to my mind: sell EURUSD. Look at the charts.

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  • #213,089
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:19pm Mar 18, 2010 4:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
be sure to remind me of this if your level continues to work.. i go with the money. 1 shallow bounce and the other null... makes me side with a big lower move soon. but i still got pending shorts waiting to enter also..

building a nice bear flag on the 4h. if it pops new low.
Just another thought...Rounded bottom has failed and seems like the bear flag on weekly is in play.

Regards
Geppyg
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Let Price determine your future!
  • #213,090
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:23pm Mar 18, 2010 4:23pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
I'm betting on Dollar decline overall, so I'm not buying USDCAD, sorry. And the only few

currencies, which are lagging general USDx trend is EUR and GBP.. Those Democrats

will drug Health Care reform through the Congress sooner or later, that's another Trillion $, which

supposed to "Cut" deficit in the long term (10 years). Perhaps Deficit will be

cut by devaluating the Dollar for another 70% that's how Us deficit can

only be cut by Dollar FACE value and who cares, if in 10 years USD will

only worth todays $0.10, right.? Everyone...
many people just see the 1.6 eu high in 2008 due to commodity demand. they think this is the low of the usd.. well its not. the recent low was almost to the day of dow 14K late in 97, the year before. check out a usdx chart and the decline to the low.
the free lunch is over for other countries. and for the elites funding on the back of u.s. citizens through usd devaluation. the cycle that built euro is over.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,091
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:24pm Mar 18, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting petehnm
first thanks mmccormac that makes sense...so do you see this going back to 1.3585 before any move up?
I've got two charts and sorry I've posted this daily so many times over the past 3 days guys but it's very relevant.

If you look at the daily you will see this daily close did something that has not been able to happen since the bottom in the beginning of February. Now look at a zoomed in of that Daily (I had those lines there before it bounced off it)...

See how price touched that line and got rejected? That is a sign that this thing does not have any real buyers even at these prices which some here call "low prices".

I can't say exactly what price will do but placing sell orders starting around 3645 thru 3690 seems like a good plan to me. I don't know how many will get hit or if any will but it's worth a shot. That upper band is a safe place for placing shorts in my opinion around 3650 area.

Have fun, trade safe, make some $$$.


FYI- While I do expect some of the correlating markets to turn most are still holding out close to key areas so that would be the risk in taking some shorts. That said the daily close has done something that hasn't been done in a while so you have to decide what risks to take.
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  • #213,092
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:25pm Mar 18, 2010 4:25pm
Quoting jsspmk
Like a beautiful canvas a long term chart has to be appreciated from a distance. Even with a fundamentally blank mind I observe uptrend topping at 1.6, followed by a failure swing at 1.51 & a lower multi-year trend line now acting as a magnet. The only way EUR may go to 1.51+ is if we hear troubles from the US.
I guess you are right.

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  • #213,093
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:26pm Mar 18, 2010 4:26pm
Quoting Geppyg
Just another thought...Rounded bottom has failed and seems like the bear flag on weekly is in play.

Regards
Geppyg
i saw it but the round in the begining made me not post it. it wasnt a clear view. but the last few are very clear.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,094
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:33pm Mar 18, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
I guess you are right.

Attachment
And the EUR started trading in?
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #213,095
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:42pm Mar 18, 2010 4:42pm
@ Sky & Malcolmb

EUR took 19 days to climb +373 pips
EUR took 2 days to lose -231 pips

Let's have a consensus on whether this is still a bear or a bull?
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #213,096
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:44pm Mar 18, 2010 4:44pm
I have 2 longs one from 1.3642 and one from 1.3631 I got back to the 1.3631 and thought momentum would get me to the BE with the other and now I'm losing it a bit wondering if I should hold on till London to see if I go back..I know some of you will say if you have to ask then get out...It's just I've had a few of my trade comeback if I just would have stayed and waited and I'm kind of tired of that happening, especially the way this pair loves to go up and down.. Any insight from you guys would be much appreciated and may be settle some of the nervousness I have. Thanks in advance....
  • #213,097
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:45pm Mar 18, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting jsspmk
@ Sky & Malcolmb

EUR took 19 days to climb +373 pips
EUR took 2 days to lose -231 pips

Let's have a consensus on whether this is still a bear or a bull?
well if you read my last post I'm hoping for a bull run at least to the 1.3750 range...
  • #213,098
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:46pm Mar 18, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting petehnm
I have 2 longs one from 1.3642 and one from 1.3631 I got back to the 1.3631 and thought momentum would get me to the BE with the other and now I'm losing it a bit wondering if I should hold on till London to see if I go back..I know some of you will say if you have to ask then get out...It's just I've had a few of my trade comeback if I just would have stayed and waited and I'm kind of tired of that happening, especially the way this pair loves to go up and down.. Any insight from you guys would be much appreciated...
Why guess what's going to happen? Just have your stops in place per your MM and walk away or set alarms for TP points.
  • #213,099
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:48pm Mar 18, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting petehnm
well if you read my last post I'm hoping for a bull run at least to the 1.3750 range...
You worded that correctly "Hope". Not saying it can't happen but the probabilities are not on your side this time.
  • #213,100
  • Mar 18, 2010 4:49pm Mar 18, 2010 4:49pm
Quoting petehnm
I have 2 longs one from 1.3642 and one from 1.3631 I got back to the 1.3631 and thought momentum would get me to the BE with the other and now I'm losing it a bit wondering if I should hold on till London to see if I go back..I know some of you will say if you have to ask then get out...It's just I've had a few of my trade comeback if I just would have stayed and waited and I'm kind of tired of that happening, especially the way this pair loves to go up and down.. Any insight from you guys would be much appreciated...
Nobody knows how far it's going to go and where, sorry to tell you
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