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  • #213,021
  • Mar 18, 2010 1:55pm Mar 18, 2010 1:55pm
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...atestheadlines

ZURICH (Dow Jones)--Switzerland must prepare for higher interest rates and the prospect of a Swiss franc reacting freely to market demand, Swiss National Bank directorate member Jean-Pierre Danthine said Thursday.
"Households and firms should prepare themselves for a return, sometime in the future, to a world of higher interest rates, with exchange rates being guided by market forces," Danthine said, according to the text of speech he made ...
  • #213,022
  • Mar 18, 2010 1:56pm Mar 18, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting AMuharram
what is the rationalle behind this strategy, revenge trading?
I'll show it to you later, ok? When I'm going to exit, I'll make Photo for you..

When SNB will really act, you not even going to be able to react to buy.. It can shoot up

300 pips in the matter of seconds..
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  • #213,023
  • Mar 18, 2010 1:57pm Mar 18, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Well, I really don't understand how EU versus EURCHF correlated..

For Example now EURUSD down some and check EURCHF it pools back

from the bottom more than 40 pips already and rising.. Could it be just SNB

already releasing some gun fire? Check ...

Profit taking on those stop's the commercials blew up. this doesn't look like SNB buying Eur yet, it would spike quicker.
  • #213,024
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:01pm Mar 18, 2010 2:01pm
that i didn't set my sl at be. wanted to give it room to slowly gather buyers and go up. ended up loosing that one. got in at 1361 and just closed it +7. seems it could start to go down although i only see obstacles on the retrace at 40...
dreams do come true.
  • #213,025
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:02pm Mar 18, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Here is the Story about EU...

USDx rise today purely on speculation over Discount Rate, that FED's

will hike after Market Close,

Like they did month ago after FOMC meeting next day.

Watch today, If no rates changed soon after 4PM, I'll be laughing all the way

to the Bank, or else if they do rise rates, EU could drop low 1.35/high 1.34

and it will be perfect buy there.. You choose, which way to play

I have it covered on the LONG side..
Have they ever raised the rate after 4.30pm est?
  • #213,026
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:02pm Mar 18, 2010 2:02pm
30-years worth of data here I'll take it:
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  • #213,027
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:03pm Mar 18, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Well, I really don't understand how EU versus EURCHF correlated..

For Example now EURUSD down some and check EURCHF it pools back

from the bottom more than 40 pips already and rising.. Could it be just SNB

already releasing some gun fire? Check ...
yes the swiss cb buys euros (to boost euro). then sells them in small quanties as euro gains strength vs chf. they get the ball moving. they will get burned when the ball dont move.. guess what... the ball aint moving and the swiss are losing money on those euros they bought. they cant sell them at a higher price.. its a losing battle and euro priced imports are getting cheaper.. its killing the swiss. its gonna be a train wreck..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,028
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:06pm Mar 18, 2010 2:06pm
Gator,

Since we hit your MID at 3630.....your looking for a 3639 area to determine whether we go to 3677 or back to 3567?

I was looking for a run to 3644 and then a return to 3572/67.............and a bounce to 3822......But that sounds like a tennis match!
  • #213,029
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:07pm Mar 18, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
I'll show it to you later, ok? When I'm going to exit, I'll make Photo for you..

When SNB will really act, you not even going to be able to react to buy.. It can shoot up

300 pips in the matter of seconds..

I'm just trying to understand your point of view, anyways hoping you the best of luck and i hope all those positions return green pips for you.
"The Side that Knows When to Fight and When Not to, Will Take the Victory"
  • #213,030
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:10pm Mar 18, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Gator,

Since we hit your MID at 3630.....your looking for a 3639 area to determine whether we go to 3677 or back to 3567?

I was looking for a run to 3644 and then a return to 3572/67.............and a bounce to 3822......But that sounds like a tennis match!
without a new low math says it will go to 3675 + slip... but we got a completed chart s/r at 39 ... big chart at 44 and a bigger one at 51 to stop it.. so we may go lower before and invaldate 3675.. like i said choppy..we havent tested 39 yet.. not a good sign for eu bulls atm.. so newer low soon cant be ruled out. more on the likely side to see 3567 + slip first.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,031
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:17pm Mar 18, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
yes the swiss cb buys euros (to boost euro). then sells them in small quanties as euro gains strength vs chf. they get the ball moving. they will get burned when the ball dont move.. guess what... the ball aint moving and the swiss are losing money on those euros they bought. they cant sell them at a higher price.. its a losing battle and euro priced imports are getting cheaper.. its killing the swiss. its gonna be a train wreck..

Yeah, kind of like how people kept buying the Pounds because they knew the UK was propping up their currency... Until they couldn't any longer and BAM!
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  • #213,032
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:19pm Mar 18, 2010 2:19pm
clearer picture next week

Attached Image
  • #213,033
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:20pm Mar 18, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting AMuharram
I'm just trying to understand your point of view, anyways hoping you the best of luck and i hope all those positions return green pips for you.
Thanks, In terms of EURCHF nothing behind it just the fact that all time low

is near 100+ pips And I can simply throw some money into it, when else

I'm going to play Lottery, which is played ones in 30 years? I'm taking

my chances here.

EU is different.. Take 4H chart place BB 20/2 on that and Sell top band,

buy lower band, that's all you have to do. I don't see no trend here so far

not down not up.. It's flat 1.3450-1.38+ wide and more likely 1.3550-1.38,

that's all.. I don't buying everything in 1 piece.. Like Stocks.. Buy 100-200

shares

on deeps, instead of buying 5000 shares in one shot, - You know..
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  • #213,034
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:22pm Mar 18, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting mmccormac
Yeah, kind of like how people kept buying the Pounds because they knew the UK was propping up their currency... Until they couldn't any longer and BAM!
i like the failed atempt on the round bottom.. on that chart. splat!

i dont know how deep swiss pockets are.. but it aint gonna be pretty.. and if they cant buy euros... guess what happens to euro when the crutch is removed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,035
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:27pm Mar 18, 2010 2:27pm
One day Greece no problem, the other day:

"1924 GMT [Dow Jones] USD again flexing muscles as euro under pressure on renewed worries about Greece, says BNZ Bank forex strategist Mike Jones.
Greece worries rekindled when senior Greek official said indebted EU member may seek IMF aid over April 2-4 Easter weekend because Athens
holds out little hope for aid resulting from next week's EU summit. Jones says USD Index supported around 79.50, will run into resistance
around 80.30 vs last 80.22. EUR/USD will meet strong resistance at 1.3780, support initially at 1.3600, then 1.3540 vs last 1.3620."

That's why we are dancing 1.34-1.38, while Big guys are playing..

Now watch EU should slide down, till 4 PM on rate hike bet.. Then rebound

if nothing behind it..
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  • #213,036
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:29pm Mar 18, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
i like the failed atempt on the round bottom.. on that chart. splat!

i dont know how deep swiss pockets are.. but it aint gonna be pretty.. and if they cant buy euros... guess what happens to euro when the crutch is removed.
RELAX and watch, nothing gonna happens.. Just a noise..

And if you so sure about what you are saying then go short till Zero..

Where was GBPUSD by the way 1.47 and now? 1.5244... And blahh, blahh about pound collapse

disappears in days..
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  • #213,037
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:36pm Mar 18, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
RELAX and watch, nothing gonna happens.. Just a noise..

And if you so sure about what you are saying then go short till Zero..

Where was GBPUSD by the way 1.47 and now? 1.5244... And blahh, blahh about pound collapse

disappears in days..
i post this now and then... i blew the dust off for you.. charts dont lie.. those predictives tell a story.. that round bottom aint so round now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #213,038
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:39pm Mar 18, 2010 2:39pm
chf gets bought because is the new dm in a EU economy where greek troubles weakens the euro.... and spain s and portugals.. however the swiss economy is quite small very small compared to the eu area, and the currency can not fulfill the role of reserve currency alternative to the euro or the usd... or even the pound of the yen... further more, swiss economy is strictly correlated with the eu so they are suffering with the exports now.. they are not comfortable at this moment. but when the skies will clear and either greece is kicked out of the eu (a good example for everyone else) or gets bailed out by the imf , the chf will get back above 1.5 i suppose - around it s natural trend line it was more or less equivalent to a dm - .. and the swiss will be able to breath. now greece has to pay more for its borrowing that ukraine which is not even in the eu, or turkey which is in asia or poland or romania both in the eu but not in the euro. this how serious the greek problem is..
Andreyou
  • #213,039
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:41pm Mar 18, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Where was GBPUSD by the way 1.47 and now? 1.5244... And blahh, blahh about pound collapse

disappears in days..
That is normal behavior in a longer-term trend. Just like a ten pip drop is, in an hour trend.
  • #213,040
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:42pm Mar 18, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
that round bottom aint so round now.
You going to be 5 years older waiting for that Target, and 1.38 coming

in few days, maybe not tomorrow, cause it's Friday, which usually bad

for equity markets..
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