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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #33,021
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:33pm Mar 17, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting leemonk
Anyone still around?

I am looking for the following action to take place:

GU = Some 35 Xover action.
EJ = DBLHC (thought it doesnt look like it will close higher)
EU = Some 35 Xover action.

Anyone in agreement or disagree's?

Lee

well i can't quote about EJ and EU but if you look at Gu on a higher TF, there is strong SR at 5365. EO and i talked a couple weeks ago about it hitting but it never did till today.

Gu been playing heavily off of SR levels. Look at the last several bounces.
I have red and orange lines on my chart. Those levels i drew a few weeks ago. Look how strongly GU has played on/against them.

for this example i removed all my indies so the SR's are easier to see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30m_sr.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #33,022
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:43pm Mar 17, 2010 1:43pm
Thank you for your feedback Gents.

Patience........ They say its a virtue. Is it true?

Good points on the GU Dakrusha.

I think I am trying to hard today. Need to ease off.

YOu know how it is though. I fnished the manual last night and am a few pages away from the end of the forum PDF attachment.

Lee
  • #33,023
  • Mar 17, 2010 1:52pm Mar 17, 2010 1:52pm
Quoting leemonk
Thank you for your feedback Gents.

Patience........ They say its a virtue. Is it true?

Good points on the GU Dakrusha.

I think I am trying to hard today. Need to ease off.

YOu know how it is though. I fnished the manual last night and am a few pages away from the end of the forum PDF attachment.

Lee
i've been trying too hard for a couple months now so you're not alone. it kills me cuz i see some great long term trades on a regular basis but lack the patience to let my trades stay for too long. Too many time's i have closed trades with slim gains or losses out of lack of patience. This last two months have been the worst in my career as a trader.

Perect example..
i saw the bounce off of 4978, i was sitting right there when it happened. I entered long at 4986 and closed for only +20 or so. I saw the big up move coming and saw the two SR's at 5234 and 5365...
did i let it sit? NO. I had my SL set at BE and it NEVER returned to my entry. I missed a HUGE move.
Then again this AM i was long at 5293 as saw the return back to 5365 coming...did i let it ferment? NO! i closed for +10.

just let the market lead you..it will. but it really does take patience..

peace
dak
  • #33,024
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:05pm Mar 17, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting dakrusha
Perect example..........

just let the market lead you..it will. but it really does take patience..

peace
dak
I hear ya.

I posted earlier today about what to do with SL and BE's.

I was wondering is it best to take 50% profit at 15 pips or so and then move to BE or is it best to move the SL as you go, similar to a trailing stop, but not as mechanical as a TS.

The way I see it is the BE will give you far more room for movement and will allow trades to develop but it means that you could end up with ONLY 50% of your profit for that trade.

The manual trailing stop ties in profits as you go, but then doesnt give much room for movement when a retracement hits.

I know EO will say look at your PA but ideally I need him sitting here next to me at my PC pressing some buttons for me .

Regards

Lee
  • #33,025
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:14pm Mar 17, 2010 2:14pm
EO (or anyone else for that matter).

Can I please ask for an update on which MA's you use on your charts?
I am using the setup from the PDF but it seems that in some cases you have more and in other cases you have less.
I am also confused over which 50ma is more important on which chart.

And......this is for everyone.

I setup with the following timelines: 15m / 1h / 4h / Daily / Weekly
Based on the above, where would you list your manual entered trendlines and S/R lines?

I see such a variety here and I know its going to be down to personal preference, but in some cases I have nothing apart from MA's and in other cases I have so many lines I can barely see the Candles!

Regards

Lee
  • #33,026
  • Mar 17, 2010 2:51pm Mar 17, 2010 2:51pm
Quoting leemonk
I hear ya.

I posted earlier today about what to do with SL and BE's.

I was wondering is it best to take 50% profit at 15 pips or so and then move to BE or is it best to move the SL as you go, similar to a trailing stop, but not as mechanical as a TS.

The way I see it is the BE will give you far more room for movement and will allow trades to develop but it means that you could end up with ONLY 50% of your profit for that trade.

The manual trailing stop ties in profits as you go, but then doesnt give much room for movement when a retracement...
As for what do to with SL and BE's, here's my quick theory.
If you place an SL at BE, (depending on where your entry is) the chances are pretty high that it will be hit. The reason is this, PA likes to hit numbers Twice and often three times. The only way to get out of that is two things:

1) place your TP at a price that is more likely (i.e. higher probability) of being hit BEFORE your SL is hit...assuming you placed your SL at BE.

2) place your SL at a price that has NOT been touched for a while (on the outside of a recent high/low). The positive is this, If you pick your SL carefully the chances are good it WON"t be hit...the downside .... but if it is...you may have a big loss.

I personally like to trade with as little risk as possible. My trades more often than not are +10-20. That's often a great trade for me and allows a BE SL that is less likely to be hit.

If you're playing with large pip trades (200-400 pips at a time) then you may need to look at a 50 pip SL with a trail stop. But again, that really has to fall in line with a carefull analysis of where you are at within the PA of your trade. if you open a trade in the middle of a large move then a 50 pip SL maybe to shallow but if you're not willing to take the 50 pip loss then...time to analyze your trade and plan a good exit with a better reentry.

hope this helps and isn't too convoluted.
  • #33,027
  • Edited Mar 18, 2010 5:52pm Mar 17, 2010 6:59pm | Edited Mar 18, 2010 5:52pm
Good morning EO and bkg,

I have four questions about the 35pip zone breakout trade.

1. What if the breakout candle closes way outside the zone? Like (maybe a bad example) the news candle this GMT morning - 70 pips above the 35pip zone. Btw. I was lucky to be in the 35/50 (8 GMT) long from 5212 .

2. How do you enter such trades? At the open of the next candle after the close outside the 35pip zone? And what about stop placement?

3. Is the 35 pip zone only for GU and EJ?

4. Is it better to trade only during London and US session or also Asia?

When do you fade price in the 35pip zone? Do you use "range rules" - like fade if it closes near to the boundary?


Hope these are not too many questions.

Cheers

tdeu
  • #33,028
  • Mar 17, 2010 7:36pm Mar 17, 2010 7:36pm
Quoting eohater
My long was taken about 15m ago, after the m15 closed flat I entered the Pending Order at 30 with SL at 20. Remember, it had to go past 29 to continue south per the rule. Well, there's 2 ways to play that rule.
Hi EO. I'm in Melbourne so unfortunately I'm packed into bed by the time you start trading and chatting in the thread. Each morning I try to marry my charts to the comments you made during the night my time. Usually I work it out but some days it's a bit of a brain teaser trying to get the timing of the comments matched to the chart once the candles have formed.

Can I please confirm which candle was the flat candle you are referring to above when placing your EJ pending order at 124.30 at the edge of the 35 pip zone. Was it the candle with the blue ellipse (my broker's chart had a little wick)? The next candle on my chart had a flat top but it can't be that one as price was already on the way up by then.

Also you mentioned you were short at the same time. Were you short from the break of the range (blue line on my chart which was also the previous days high?) or were you already short from higher on? Price closed outside the range, retested with wicks at the MAs and didn't close back inside the range. My concern with going short here was the top of previous support I had at 124.50 (dotted orange line), I thought it might get held up here, but it went thru it easily after the retest.

Can I confirm the hammer at the red ellipse is a long entry signal(although as you mentioned the H1 and H4 were showing sellers so the trade needed to be managed carefully) with exit after the gold hammer.

Is the gold hammer another short signal with such a long wick back to the range and the 21 and 50MAs and close below the 10? I assume my term support (orange dotted) has already been crossed once and is out of play even though the candle closed above it. Certainly the next candle closes below to confirm

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/e...0100318m15.gif

Thanks for posting your comments, they are really helping me alot.

Occam
  • #33,029
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:15pm Mar 17, 2010 11:15pm
I hope some people played the bounce off the h1 200 on EJ. Gotta love a good 200sma! I know I do!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #33,030
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:41pm Mar 17, 2010 11:41pm
Hi All

Anyone who is new (like me) to EO's thread may be interested in the two attached PDFs that I have compiled of various posts from EO and Infinity that caught my eye as I was browsing through the thread. They give a little more insight and info as to how they go about their trading. Sorry no fancy formatting, I used Open Office Writer and it kept losing text and dying with all the graphics when I tried to put in page breaks etc. Please note the posts are by EO unless otherwise specificied.

Occam
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Miscellaneous EO and Infinity Posts Part 1.pdf   1.9 MB | 353 downloads
File Type: pdf Miscellaneous EO and Infinity Posts Part 2.pdf   1.8 MB | 339 downloads
  • #33,031
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:54pm Mar 17, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting eohater
I hope some people played the bounce off the h1 200 on EJ. Gotta love a good 200sma! I know I do!
And the M15 gave a little hammer just before the H1 close to signal the long might be happening. Nice!
  • #33,032
  • Mar 17, 2010 11:58pm Mar 17, 2010 11:58pm
And the GU tried twice to get thru resistance at 1.5310 and failed. Second time included bounce short off 35MA. Lets see if it gets thru 1.5287. A real good target might be H4 resistance and previous days low at 1.5205.....go baby....
  • #33,033
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:16am Mar 18, 2010 12:16am
Flat m15 on EJ just closed, I have a PO long at 123.30, I have a trendline it's on and S/R as well.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #33,034
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:22am Mar 18, 2010 12:22am
Quoting eohater
Flat m15 on EJ just closed, I have a PO long at 123.30, I have a trendline it's on and S/R as well.
Was watching that exact level . Maybe this stuff is sinking in lol! Also bottom of my channel. Not sure I'm not quite ready for using POs like that yet. That might be EO102, next class up from where I am
  • #33,035
  • Mar 18, 2010 12:31am Mar 18, 2010 12:31am
GU 1.5276 is holding at present...I've got that as a H4 support level, wick candle yesterday and and area from 26 Feb...be nice to see that cracked...
  • #33,036
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:53am Mar 18, 2010 2:53am
Morning all,I'm looking for a nice bounce at 5240/5250 area (15m 200,a very old t/l,supertrend on 1hr and a fib fan line).Anybody used fib fans before,I've just tried it for the first time to see what it does ha ha.I know they're not pertinent to this thread,just asking out of curiosity.
  • #33,037
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:00am Mar 18, 2010 3:00am
Quoting Deputy Dawg
Morning all,I'm looking for a nice bounce at 5240/5250 area (15m 200,a very old t/l,supertrend on 1hr and a fib fan line).Anybody used fib fans before,I've just tried it for the first time to see what it does ha ha.I know they're not pertinent to this thread,just asking out of curiosity.
WORD! i just closed a 30 pip short to 55...looking to long now...i was watching the same 200 on the 15M.

i wanna pull the trigger now but i'm affraid it will be premature.
hmmmm

PA was at 53 when i wanted to jump...it would have been a good leap dam it
  • #33,038
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:02am Mar 18, 2010 3:02am
Quoting Deputy Dawg
Morning all,I'm looking for a nice bounce at 5240/5250 area (15m 200,a very old t/l,supertrend on 1hr and a fib fan line).Anybody used fib fans before,I've just tried it for the first time to see what it does ha ha.I know they're not pertinent to this thread,just asking out of curiosity.
Nice call, closed my short at +60, now to see if it reverses or to get back in at a ma touch.
  • #33,039
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:07am Mar 18, 2010 3:07am
Quoting Deputy Dawg
Morning all,I'm looking for a nice bounce at 5240/5250 area (15m 200,a very old t/l,supertrend on 1hr and a fib fan line).Anybody used fib fans before,I've just tried it for the first time to see what it does ha ha.I know they're not pertinent to this thread,just asking out of curiosity.
On the money DD...
  • #33,040
  • Mar 18, 2010 3:12am Mar 18, 2010 3:12am
Its also amazing how the 50ema on the 1 hour was right there. Nice to see it come together.
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