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  • #211,761
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:20pm Mar 16, 2010 12:20pm
Quoting kingfisher
I am euro bearish and dollar bullish- euro economy problems and us economy strengths.

Remember the yearly change in trend on dec 3/4 after NFP data was based on the premise that US economy is improving.

The euro crisis is fuel in the fire.

However in a day trading set up, technicals works better. So, After FOMC, we have to see where E/U will go- Above R 1 or below R 1

But generally above R 1 the buyers are in short supply. So after FOMC, we can go down.
still think it will go down even though everyone saying that nothing is going to change as far as the rate goes?
  • #211,762
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:24pm Mar 16, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting cacus
Yes, but it's extremely overbought... I'll look for a new opportunity but FOMC announcements makes me scare a little...
Well, or a rather big retracement
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #211,763
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:31pm Mar 16, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting akhtergroup
So your telling us that you expect it to retrace 100% of the move up and then retrace again 100% of the down to go back up?

Crazy, what version crystal ball are you using?
anything can happen in forex , crystal ball not neccessary . within price action whatever % it go up & down one can bet at least some % for sure & that is enough for any trader.
present move likely to break any place ,even retrace 100% of the previous then test the ltl & if break can again retrace 100% , what problem ? not possible?
A bull set up right now can fail & become bear one.never price continue bulls after bulls ,one fail another take advantages.do your own way.
thanks,
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #211,764
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:33pm Mar 16, 2010 12:33pm
Quote
still think it will go down even though everyone saying that nothing is going to change as far as the rate goes?

Yup Mate. No rate change is already built in price. Market will react on FOMC 'Statement' specially those 'extended period of time' statement.

Since US is everyone's daddy, so today S&P movements will affect asian and european openings tommorow.
  • #211,765
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:35pm Mar 16, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting fontu
anything can happen in forex , crystal ball not neccessary . within price action whatever % it go up & down one can bet at least some % for sure & that is enough for any trader.
present move likely to break any place ,even retrace 100% of the previous then test the ltl & if break can again retrace 100% , what problem ? not possible?
A bull set up right now can fail & become bear one.never price continue bulls after bulls ,one fail another take advantages.do your own way.
thanks,
fontu
And yes 100% retrace on a movement is possible right now... its in a consolidation period where it doesnt have any clue as to which direction to go yet, corrections are taken to prevent EUR from dropping to the same price as USD... it just cant happen... if EUR ended up below price of USD, then all hell will break lose... loads of unemployment will happen in Europe, and you dont want that.

Besides M30, H1 and H4 showed a W shaped bullish butterfly...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #211,766
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:48pm Mar 16, 2010 12:48pm
"shit or off the pot time". we aint out of this yet. we got a little daylight. but its still a coin toss. fed news will come at close. anything can happen still. im neutral until. china killed usd today.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #211,767
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:50pm Mar 16, 2010 12:50pm
anyone have a link to watch statement?
  • #211,768
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:51pm Mar 16, 2010 12:51pm
are they setting things up for rally down or up?...or like someone said earlier "just flip a coin"
  • #211,769
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:51pm Mar 16, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting mfoste1
anyone have a link to watch statement?
try cnbc.com
  • #211,770
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:54pm Mar 16, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting bguguen
And yes 100% retrace on a movement is possible right now... its in a consolidation period where it doesnt have any clue as to which direction to go yet, corrections are taken to prevent EUR from dropping to the same price as USD... it just cant happen... if EUR ended up below price of USD, then all hell will break lose... loads of unemployment will happen in Europe, and you dont want that.

Besides M30, H1 and H4 showed a W shaped bullish butterfly...
just the opposite could happen too. cheaper currency makes ez more competitive (exports/tourism). but getting to that point would be painful.

but either way fontu is just trading it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #211,771
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:54pm Mar 16, 2010 12:54pm
Hmmm
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  • #211,772
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:54pm Mar 16, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting bguguen
And yes 100% retrace on a movement is possible right now... its in a consolidation period where it doesnt have any clue as to which direction to go yet, corrections are taken to prevent EUR from dropping to the same price as USD... it just cant happen... if EUR ended up below price of USD, then all hell will break lose... loads of unemployment will happen in Europe, and you dont want that.
That is for sure dear , not only europe, nowhere in the world . I want go smooth.the small correction I mentioned earlier will not cause any unemployment & so no worry.

actually what the values of eur or dollar will stand ultimately I do not know .If I say it should be before the US recession started 9 years back of 0.81 level can be ok none were in any recession , none enjoy free ride over the others suffering.
But unfortunately time & tide wait for none but time may again come when questions of eqillibrium after the sufferer got healed enough & want it back what lost? not be justified ? who will pay ? who took before ,not ?

Anyway every bull may give back the equal amount or more just when fail continuously bulling , due bull habit formation , expenditure increased to maintain the same status before the bull started.
I think time is coming ultimately to give all what bull have taken .not 100% if consider at least 60-70% without any objection for sure , today or tommorow .
As a general people without any knowledge of world economy .

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #211,773
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:56pm Mar 16, 2010 12:56pm
big us/china news possible anytime.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #211,774
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:58pm Mar 16, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
big us/china news possible anytime.
What news?
If you're not part of the solution then you're part of the problem.
  • #211,775
  • Mar 16, 2010 12:59pm Mar 16, 2010 12:59pm
CNBC just quoted a treasury official saying that China's forex policy is not conducive to a free market economy.
  • #211,776
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:00pm Mar 16, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting fontu
That is for sure dear , not only europe, nowhere in the world . I want go smooth.the small correction I mentioned earlier will not cause any unemployment & so no worry.

actually what the values of eur or dollar will stand ultimately I do not know .If I say it should be before the US recession started 9 years back of 0.81...

Hope so too
  • #211,777
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:03pm Mar 16, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting cloggie
CNBC just quoted a treasury official saying that China's forex policy is not conducive to a free market economy.
Thanks man. My daughter is watching Lazy Town on the only TV that can broadcast Bloomberg and CNBC.
If you're not part of the solution then you're part of the problem.
  • #211,778
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:05pm Mar 16, 2010 1:05pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
Appreciate it. BTW I am going to sell at .3777 because #272

Thank you again.

(some little voice inside me is telling me that I missed the train)
Missed the entry. Flat now.

(That little voice, sometimes I hate it.)
  • #211,779
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:08pm Mar 16, 2010 1:08pm
Sitting on hands.
  • #211,780
  • Mar 16, 2010 1:10pm Mar 16, 2010 1:10pm
I am square now. I closed my longs from 1.3670 to 1.3765. Failed to open on the opposite side. Now waiting...
If you're not part of the solution then you're part of the problem.
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