Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1644 | Forex Factory

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #32,861
  • Mar 12, 2010 7:08pm Mar 12, 2010 7:08pm
I have a question for my friends across the pond. When do you guys adjust your time for daylight savings?

Thank you!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #32,862
  • Mar 12, 2010 11:25pm Mar 12, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting eohater
I have a question for my friends across the pond. When do you guys adjust your time for daylight savings?

Thank you!
Hello Eo Our clocks go forward this year on 28th March.
  • #32,863
  • Edited 12:59am Mar 13, 2010 12:21am | Edited 12:59am
Quoting eohater
I have a question for my friends across the pond. When do you guys adjust your time for daylight savings?

Thank you!
i am not sure i got your question EO.... how should i adjust my time?
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #32,864
  • Mar 13, 2010 1:25am Mar 13, 2010 1:25am
Quoting dario1002
i am not sure i got your question EO.... how should i adjust my time?
Hi darioEO is refering to the change from GMT to BST in the UK
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #32,865
  • Mar 13, 2010 2:11am Mar 13, 2010 2:11am
Quoting Gladis Night
Hi darioEO is refering to the change from GMT to BST in the UK
so considering that for some strange reason i have my time set at GMT+2

how should i set it?
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #32,866
  • Edited 2:25am Mar 13, 2010 2:17am | Edited 2:25am
Quoting dario1002
so considering that for some strange reason i have my time set at GMT+2

how should i set it?
just be aware that the london session will start an hour earlier when the change happens
I think thats right. Some one clever will post GMT+1 or +3 LOL
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #32,867
  • Mar 13, 2010 2:25am Mar 13, 2010 2:25am
nonono.. my bad... i have it at gmt+1

but maybe EO was referring to the graphic i posted and... all the daily and 4h candles that look different (as the one i posted before)
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #32,868
  • Mar 13, 2010 2:42am Mar 13, 2010 2:42am
Quoting Gladis Night
just be aware that the london session will start an hour earlier when the change happens
I think thats right. Some one clever will post GMT+1 or +3 LOL

This clever guy/girl should post it every 4 hours and at the end of every session
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #32,869
  • Mar 13, 2010 2:53am Mar 13, 2010 2:53am
Quoting dario1002
This clever guy/girl should post it every 4 hours and at the end of every session
The US goes to summer time this weekend, so if you are anywhere but in the US for you, just be aware that NY will open at an hour earlier than it usually does and the US brokers will be open an hour earlier than they normally are. On 28th March the UK then goes over to summer time and the same thing will happen with UK brokers and London will open (for those not in the UK) an hour earlier than normal.

Dario, the question from EO was just so he is certain when London will open an hour earlier than he's used to.

If you're referring to your trading station being set at GMT +1 then that comes from the broker and can't be changed. Just be aware that if you are GMT +1 and are used to London kicking in at 9am on your chart, it will be the 8am candle when trading resumes after 28th March.
  • #32,870
  • Mar 13, 2010 3:01am Mar 13, 2010 3:01am
Quoting luckylady
The US goes to summer time this weekend, so if you are anywhere but in the US for you, just be aware that NY will open at an hour earlier than it usually does and the US brokers will be open an hour earlier than they normally are....

thank u very much
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #32,871
  • Mar 13, 2010 7:30am Mar 13, 2010 7:30am
By the way guys.. i have another question for u all. When you get into a trade, do u always go in with the same amount of money?
I am not interested in knowing how much, just how if and how u manage to change amounts of lots. I know it's a matter of money management and, according to it, it should depend on how far u set your S/L.
According to EO method, if i am not mistaken, S/L are placed in a range from 20 to 60 pips away from the entry (in average). But the entry is kind of scalping-style, so maybe it's not always immediate the count. Any comment?
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #32,872
  • Mar 13, 2010 1:50pm Mar 13, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting macc
Hi Occam,


The second visit to the 35sma on your chart (as you correctly mention) is a 35/50 cross which is a signal to go long on the close of the crossed candle. Three other things to note there is that the first crossing candle closed at the 1h 62ema (also an opportunity to play the reversal long). The next 15m candle made another 35/50 cross (a possible signal that she would reverse back short into/across the ma’s) and that second candle also gave us a DBLHC suggesting the next candle could retrace down the (combined) wick of the DBLHC for...
Thx Macc. You've touched on a question I have regarding the 35/50MA cross and reverse. So it doesn't matter which direction the 35/50MA cross comes from (from the 35 side or from the 50 side), either direction is good? Or is it best used when PA is going from the 35 to the 50 and after a trend and is retracing and may be getting ready to resume trend again (after considering what higher TFs have to say)? From my limited observations so far it seems best when it has crossed from the 35 side in a trend or when price has been outside the 35 pip zone from the last candle cross of the 35MA. Thx
  • #32,873
  • Edited 4:14pm Mar 14, 2010 3:16pm | Edited 4:14pm
Hi All. Could someone please check my trade analysis on an EJ trade I got caught in on Friday. Not a big loss and it was countertrend so riskier and on review I could have managed it better. Also I probably should have been long before entering this trade short.

On the M15 chart PA had touched H4 resistance (red line), closed just above forming a short term M15 resistance level (orange line), then went to and bounced off the 50MA (where I should have been long in the first place), all within the 35 pip zone (think I've got the 35 pip zone on the brain lol). Price then went back up and closed 1 pip above my new M15 resistance level (not sure if this is important or not, I took it that the new resistance was still holding). Then we got a bounce off the 21 MA (purple) and a shooting star (A) all closing below the M15 resistance. I went short open of next candle.

Price was went down and was stopped by the 21 again. I didn't notice it at the time but there was also some short term support there on the M15 as well (green line). We then got the candle B, which closed above the 21 and did not make it past the wick of the previous candle. But it also tested the short term M15 resistance and the wick was lower than the previous candle.

I'm not sure how to read candle B, whether it indicates a long or a short at this point. I stayed in my short trade because it still looked short. Should I have exited as it didn't pass the previous wick and stayed above 21MA?. Is it also an inverse hangman and does this count in this position?

The next candle which closed above everything I exited on. I then waited to see if candle C retested M15 resistance for a long which it did, right at the 10EMA (so I got that bit right I think!)

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/e...100312m15a.gif

Just not sure if I should have stayed in the trade short or exited after candle B and how candle B should be read. Should I have gone long after close of candle B? Any comments greatly appreciated

Thanks Occam
  • #32,874
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:04pm Mar 14, 2010 7:04pm
Quoting occamsrazors
Hi All. Could someone please check my trade analysis on an EJ trade I got caught in on Friday. Not a big loss and it was countertrend so riskier and on review I could have managed it better. Also I probably should have been long before entering this trade short.

On the M15 chart PA had touched H4 resistance (red line), closed just above forming a short term M15 resistance level (orange line), then went to and bounced off the 50MA (where I should have been long in the first place), all within the 35 pip zone (think I've got the 35 pip zone on...
One thing I would say, is that you haven't included any analysis of the higher time frames, what did the H1 and H4 candles and ma's look like when you took the trade?
  • #32,875
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:47pm Mar 14, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting luckylady
One thing I would say, is that you haven't included any analysis of the higher time frames, what did the H1 and H4 candles and ma's look like when you took the trade?
Ok - One reason for my short was the H4 resistance that I had marked on the previous chart in red. It seemed to me that while price was just above it it was struggling to go any further and then I got the M15 pin for a short.

Yep looking at the H1 chart I see that it had also tested previous PPA support from 2 days ago two candles before. This would make the short dangerous. I missed that.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/e...20100312h1.gif

And then H4 had crossed the 200MA. Maybe my H4 resistance was in the wrong spot, but there were alot of candle closes at the 124.15 level on 17 and 18 Feb which signified that it might be resistance.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/e...20100312h4.gif

I thought that H4 resistance might be an area to go short. It was countertrend. I am intereted in how to read the candle B in my previous post.
  • #32,876
  • Mar 15, 2010 12:17am Mar 15, 2010 12:17am
Quoting occamsrazors
Ok - One reason for my short was the H4 resistance that I had marked on the previous chart in red. It seemed to me that while price was just above it it was struggling to go any further and then I got the M15 pin for a short.

Yep looking at the H1 chart I see that it had also tested previous PPA support from 2 days ago two candles before. This would make the short dangerous. I missed that.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/e...20100312h1.gif

And then H4 had crossed the 200MA. Maybe my H4 resistance was in the wrong...

First things first, forget about all your analysis for this particular trade. There is something very fundamental about why you should not have taken any trade at that particular TIME OF DAY based on those particular candles. You were taking a trade into the London breakout but it hadn't broken out of the late Asia range yet. You needed to wait for the breakout and then enter on the pull back in the 124.3x area long if you weren't already in a long from down below.

Second, the most obvious next area to look for a short on EJ was the 125.1x area based on resistance from Feb. 21 which also coinsided with the daily 50ema. This trade worked out really well!

Hope this helps!
  • #32,877
  • Mar 15, 2010 1:35am Mar 15, 2010 1:35am
good morning,

we have confluence of several MA's around 5090-95

plus TL

tdeu
  • #32,878
  • Edited 2:37am Mar 15, 2010 2:23am | Edited 2:37am
Quoting PippiNole
First things first, forget about all your analysis for this particular trade. There is something very fundamental about why you should not have taken any trade at that particular TIME OF DAY based on those particular candles. You were taking a trade into the London breakout but it hadn't broken out of the late Asia range yet. You needed to wait for the breakout and then enter on the pull back in the 124.3x area long if you weren't already in a long from down below.

Second, the most obvious next area to look for a short on EJ was the 125.1x...
Thanks PippiNole. Good point on the obvious reversal point. That one I had is not that obvious at all. I need to work on my H4 SR levels, and just go for the obvious ones, and not think every level is a reversal point.

Can I clarify about your comment on the London breakout. Are you saying let the breakout go and then get a long on the pullback on the doji in the 124.3 area about 8 candles later at 19:00 on my H1 chart? Thanks for the feedback.
  • #32,879
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:45am Mar 15, 2010 2:45am
Mmmm will GU bounce off the H1 200? Might go back up and retest the TL it just broke...
  • #32,880
  • Mar 15, 2010 2:48am Mar 15, 2010 2:48am
Quoting occamsrazors
Mmmm will GU bounce off the H1 200? Might go back up and retest the TL it just broke...
Well, it sure got real friendly with the 200. Now to see if it bounces or breaks.
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