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  • #210,921
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:09pm Mar 14, 2010 6:09pm
What was that about USDCHF?
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #210,922
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:10pm Mar 14, 2010 6:10pm
Quoting realjumper
I am in that minority too. I am expecting 3838 to turn this around, or if not, 3850 (+ or -). I will be building shorts accordingly.....
below 7961 i will be more cautios. this month is still open, but without a new high in usdx. this is not a pretty sight for usd bulls. keeping my eyes open and legs shut. nothing wrong with being cautious. but i like the W affect longer term.
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  • #210,923
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:14pm Mar 14, 2010 6:14pm
Gat,

I'm sure you know but that 3785 level was a pretty important line in the sand even on daily back in may 09 plus other times in history...As usual your other lines work too going back. I'm still just sitting out for now tho.
  • #210,924
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:14pm Mar 14, 2010 6:14pm
seeking alpha has some great articles , that can often make one wonder

here is one that makes sense to me

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1934...r-bulls-beware

also while we have 300 k foreclosure or loan defaults per month will they ever raise rates ? probably not.

what else would drive the usd down ? well dj moving down would as usd would become a safe haven . Looking at usd charts it does not look like this is happening anytime soon.
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  • #210,925
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:15pm Mar 14, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
a bounce from from october chart
Yeah, I have Chart too for Dollar lowers, USDx 70 or so on Index about right (late 2011-2012(max) target):
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  • #210,926
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:15pm Mar 14, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
below 7961 i will be more cautios. this month is still open, but without a new high in usdx. this is not a pretty sight for usd bulls. keeping my eyes open and legs shut. nothing wrong with being cautious. but i like the W affect longer term.
I am assuming that March 31st is the end of the financial year for most countries?
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  • #210,927
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:21pm Mar 14, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting jsspmk
Just to repeat what I have said already, I don't expect much to happen until next week mainly due to options expiration this Friday. I am guessing here by saying that this week EUR will move slightly higher with some range based reduced volatility. Whatever plan they come up with regarding Greece shouldn't matter as it was almost expected to happen.
Hi can you tell me what is the option play expired this friday? do you have the website for option schedule?
  • #210,928
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:24pm Mar 14, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting essenza
Hi can you tell me what is the option play expired this friday? do you have the website for option schedule?

Third Friday of every Month options expire.

March 19th futures contracts expire.

This month is triple witching next Friday ..... can be called freaky Friday as volatility can be insane.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/...tchinghour.asp
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  • #210,929
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:25pm Mar 14, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting uraceulose
Gat,

I'm sure you know but that 3785 level was a pretty important line in the sand even on daily back in may 09 plus other times in history...As usual your other lines work too going back. I'm still just sitting out for now tho.
im far from a euro bull long term. this would not be the first time europe could not hold it self together under the same currency. fighting is part of the culture. always has been. history books are full of examples.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #210,930
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:31pm Mar 14, 2010 6:31pm
Anybody paying attention on EURCHF ?

Close to All time low.. I might throgh few k in that and will average down..

200-300 pips (extreme) downside with thousands of pips on upside?

Risk:Reward looks good, without any indies.

I'll bite it.. I did buy USDJPY at 84 right on Dubai crisis BS, never regret,

I'm sure SNB wouldn't wait long, looking at this..


P.S

Bought..
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  • #210,931
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:35pm Mar 14, 2010 6:35pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Anybody paying attention on EURCHF ?

Close to All time low.. I might throgh few k in that and will average down..

200-300 pips (extreme) downside with thousands of pips on upside?

Risk:Reward looks good, without any indies.

I'll bite it.. I did buy USDJPY at 84 right on Dubai crisis BS, never regret,

I'm sure SNB wouldn't wait long, looking at this..

yea im currently long eurchf ill add the lower it goes .... big intervention is imminent, i wouldnt doubt SNB to try and push it above 1.50 as that was the level that they previously endorsed. Extreme volatility will come along with it though.
  • #210,932
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:44pm Mar 14, 2010 6:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
seeking alpha has some great articles , that can often make one wonder

here is one that makes sense to me

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1934...r-bulls-beware

also while we have 300 k foreclosure or loan defaults per month will they ever raise rates ? probably not.

what else would drive the usd down ? well dj moving down would as usd would become a safe haven . Looking at usd charts it does not look like this is happening anytime soon.
Interesting article, thanks. I do have a lot of respect for Peter. As soon as USD dives, if it does, the following will happen:

USD tanks below all time low in after hours...

3.31am Obama calls Chopper & shits down his throat about what just happened
3.33am FED raises rate to 0.75%
3.35am USD shoots up & keeps going up
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #210,933
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:47pm Mar 14, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting mfoste1
yea im currently long eurchf ill add the lower it goes .... big intervention is imminent, i wouldnt doubt SNB to try and push it above 1.50 as that was the level that they previously endorsed. Extreme volatility will come along with it though.
i think we won't see eurchf above 1.5 for a very, very long time. if anything, the snb will try to stabilize the downmove. fundamentally speaking there is just not enough reason to try to force the market to accept a rate of over 1.5
looks like the market wants to test all time lows. snb will only try to pace the move every 100 pips or so
  • #210,934
  • Mar 14, 2010 6:50pm Mar 14, 2010 6:50pm
Quoting mfoste1
yea im currently long eurchf ill add the lower it goes .... big intervention is imminent, i wouldnt doubt SNB to try and push it above 1.50 as that was the level that they previously endorsed. Extreme volatility will come along with it though.
Yeah, I just enter pending orders all the way to 1.42 for now, hoping for

fast flash down and shoot up
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  • #210,935
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:01pm Mar 14, 2010 7:01pm
Quoting mikekneip
i think we won't see eurchf above 1.5 for a very, very long time.
It's not USDJPY you are talking about. This pair could shoot up 500 pips

in split second.. And talking about all time low? What Number you have in mind?

Since EUR introduce I have all time low around 1.4350 or so..

I submit limited buy orders all the way to 1.42 and that should cover it.
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  • #210,936
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:02pm Mar 14, 2010 7:02pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Anybody paying attention on EURCHF ?

Close to All time low.. I might throgh few k in that and will average down..

200-300 pips (extreme) downside with thousands of pips on upside?

Risk:Reward looks good, without any indies.

I'll bite it.. I did buy USDJPY at 84 right on Dubai crisis BS, never regret,

I'm sure SNB wouldn't wait long, looking at this..


P.S

Bought..

I think you're good to make some decent money though maybe not anytime soon, but the USDJPY being at an all time low is very different from the EURCHF...think location and trade relationship.
  • #210,937
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:04pm Mar 14, 2010 7:04pm
Quoting Catch-22
I think you're good to make some decent money though maybe not anytime soon.
Alright we shall see, If I get tired of waiting, I'll dump it on the middle of the

road
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  • #210,938
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:18pm Mar 14, 2010 7:18pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
It's not USDJPY you are talking about. This pair could shoot up 500 pips

in split second.. And talking about all time low? What Number you have in mind?

Since EUR introduce I have all time low around 1.4350 or so..

I submit limited buy orders all the way to 1.42 and that should cover it.

i have a 1.43 as the all time low against the euro. i know that the snb can shoot this pair above 1.5, but I just can't see enough reason for them to spend let's say 10 to 15 yards to do that. their economy is doing relatively fine right now and as long as the numbers stay good they will not engage in any type of serious intervention. personally i expect this pair to drift downwards to 1.43 over the next 8 - 12 weeks. long term, based on what we know right now i would expect it to trade between 1.4 and 1.48 to 1.49 with most of the time being spent in the lower 40's
  • #210,939
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:22pm Mar 14, 2010 7:22pm
Pivots did their job at the end of last week.

One trader here... not me... even called a buy during the bounce off of R2.

It worked out for him... bounced at R2 almost to the PIP.

Nice trade.

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  • #210,940
  • Mar 14, 2010 7:28pm Mar 14, 2010 7:28pm
Quoting mikekneip
based on what we know right now i would expect it to trade between 1.4 and 1.48 to 1.49 with most of the time being spent in the lower 40's
This pair start dropping when EUR fell of the cliff, many including me

exception EUR to return to 1.40+ area soon, that the reason for me to

buy EURCHF. Besides there is always a reason to buy anything off all time low

check last time how long it sits there? few days? at most. This time will be

no different, when Big boys load up and ready to lunch the rocket, it will

take off quickly... Personally as I said I expect quick final flash, and run up

and go from there.
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