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  • #210,821
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:10am Mar 14, 2010 9:10am
Quoting meromar
200 p gap down is possible

Anything is possible, but what is probable? I'm not expecting monkeys to fly out of my butt either, but you never know.
  • #210,822
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:24am Mar 14, 2010 9:24am
Quoting meromar
200 p gap down is possible

what are you talking about?!....thats about as possible as me walking out of my house right now and getting struck by lightning
  • #210,823
  • Edited 9:43am Mar 14, 2010 9:31am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting fayz0r
trend got to remain down and new lows should be seen this year!
Interesting view. Let me guess, why trend GOT to remain down? Because

you are short, who is shorting the bottoms?

Might as well cover and see if you can short it from 1.60

instead
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  • #210,824
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:31am Mar 14, 2010 9:31am
big trend+EVENTQUOTE=mfoste1;3549242]what are you talking about?!....thats about as possible as me walking out of my house right now and getting struck by lightning[/quote]
  • #210,825
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:37am Mar 14, 2010 9:37am
Quoting crazy horse
i will be using this channels for the rest of the year and future

Interesting chart. However, my weekly is telling a different story. we are in a troubling area and 3830/50 could be a major resistance and possible top for now. February 9 high at 3839 is also supported by Daily fib.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euw1.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #210,826
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:38am Mar 14, 2010 9:38am
Quoting The Fool
"March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao rebuffed calls for the yuan to appreciate and sought assurances that the U.S. will protect the value of China’s dollar assets..."
...hmmmm, rebuff, or bluff..?
"U.S. will protect the value of China’s dollar assets." How??? By printing

another 50 trillion? Common now these Debt levels are not sustainable,

Chinese not that stupid, they must diversify from the Dollar while Dollar worth

something or else they going to tank alone with the Titanic..
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  • #210,827
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:39am Mar 14, 2010 9:39am
Quoting crazy horse
i will be using this channels for the rest of the year and future
Highly unlikely, it may only happen if USD tanks below all time low of 70.698 (March 2008), the lowest since its inception in 1973, which is also looking like a not so likely possibility. Don't just look at charts, read up on what is happening. FED is itching to start moving rates higher as their own research has showed that keeping interest rates low for a prolonged period of time in the past has led to an increase in unemployment. They have already upped their discount rate, US economy seems to be improving at faster pace in comparison to Eurozone & Japan for that matter (hence YEN is set to fall), etc.

What will be new is this - can US stock markets sustain their rallies with stronger USD or are we nearing the time of "game over" for stocks? That is less clear to me in relation to USD. Ultimately, USD may collapse if Chinese stop buying US debt, but at the moment the Chinese don't want that risk, they don't want the US economy (USD) to fail. USD has shot of its all time low & has now put in a higher low on the monthly chart. Beware of speculative thoughts that USD is toilet paper, ultimately maybe so, but not yet.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #210,828
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:41am Mar 14, 2010 9:41am
wonder what kind of gap we'll see tonight?
  • #210,829
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:41am Mar 14, 2010 9:41am
well as i have said numerous times before, you have a losing battle at hand from the offset when arguing with zealous newcomers- to who u are addressing has come from somehwere fresh in his mind that "trend" is ur frend. these are the same folks that said trend is up when euro pair was trading @ 151. same guys who said trend is down when euro took off from 133 early last year.

save some breath and keep ur analysis for those who actually see the value in it. trend is a term so abused in this market. I cringe at ignorance of these folks when making blanket statements like that . why is the trend down, can u be sure that reversal has not taken shape now?



Quoting malcolmb14
I also have VSA on my side ....
Its all in the mind.
  • #210,830
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:42am Mar 14, 2010 9:42am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Interesting view. Let me guess, why trend GOT to remain down? Because

you are short?, who is shorting the bottoms?

Might as well cover and see if you can short from 1.60

instead
Or short the bottom with stop above 1.5+?

One wise man has once said - For trend to continue down new lows have to be made.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #210,831
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:48am Mar 14, 2010 9:48am
Quoting 5abi
well as i have said numerous times before, you have a losing battle at hand from the offset when arguing with zealous newcomers- to who u are addressing has come from somehwere fresh in his mind that "trend" is ur frend. these are the same folks that said trend is up when euro pair was trading @ 151. same guys who said trend is down when euro took off from 133 early last year.

save some breath and keep ur analysis for those who actually see the value in it. trend is a term so abused in this market. I cringe at ignorance of these folks when...
When we look at trends from a technical point of view you gotta adhere to some sort of study, common studies of trends call for certain criteria to be present, which in Euro's case hasn't taken place. You can call tops & bottoms all you like, but that is more of a hobby, not a money making occupation.

Question: Do I need to have 1000s of posts logged on the FF to be considered experienced & worthy?
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #210,832
  • Mar 14, 2010 9:59am Mar 14, 2010 9:59am
My post was not directed at you- I like Malc and I think he gets into too many scrapes with newer guys on this thread on weekends.

Regarding trends, well let us just say the way I operate is not impacted by trend reading over anything longer than a day or a week. And it may not be true for any one else, but personally I have felt that predicting long term targets in forex is not the most profitable way to do business unless you have a very large account and do not use leverage as such. But that is a discussion for another day. Ofcourse your style may be different and that is fair enough.



Quoting jsspmk
When we look at trends from a technical point of view you gotta adhere to some sort of study, common studies of trends call for certain criteria to be present, which in Euro's case hasn't taken place. You can call tops & bottoms all you like, but that is more of a hobby, not a money making occupation.

Question: Do I need to have 1000s of posts logged on the FF to be considered experienced & worthy?
Its all in the mind.
  • #210,833
  • Mar 14, 2010 10:00am Mar 14, 2010 10:00am
Goldman Sachs Says Buy Euro as Greek Concern Eases (Update1)
March 12, 2010, 9:35 AM EST (Bloomberg)

Investors should buy the euro against the dollar, betting it may rise to $1.45, as sentiment toward Greece improves, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.Backing from European leaders for Greece’s measures to narrow its budget deficit will reduce the “risk premium” attached to the 16-nation currency, the bank said in an e-mailed note today. There will be more “growth surprises” from the euro region than from the U.S. in the near term, it said.“While we do see sustainable dollar strength in the more distant future, we think the short-term pressures are likely to reverse,” Goldman Sachs analysts including Thomas Stolper in London wrote in the report. “Euro-dollar has the potential to rally from here towards our three-month forecast” of $1.45.The euro climbed 0.6 percent to $1.3767 as of 1:30 p.m. in London. Investors should remove bets that the euro will strengthen should it close on any day below $1.35.Europe’s common currency fell against all of its 16 most- active counterparts this year as concern mounted that Greece won’t be able to reduce its budget deficit. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou last week announced an austerity package aiming at cutting the shortfall by another 4.8 billion euros. German Chancellor Angela Merkel last month pledged “determined and coordinated action, if needed” to aid Greece.“Should Greece not be able to raise the necessary funds for upcoming debt maturities, it is likely that other euro zone members will offer the country non-commercial funding,” Goldman Sachs said. “No doubt, the fiscal challenges in southern European countries are far from being solved but some highly disruptive tail risks appear removed for now.”Growth SurprisesThe euro-region economy is likely to accelerate in the first half of this year while the U.S. growth will decelerate “quite notably,” the bank said.“Our growth forecasts in the U.S. suggest we will see quite a substantial decline from a peak 5.7 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter to about 2 percent or slightly lower by mid-2010,” Goldman Sachs said. “Much of the renewed slowing in U.S. growth will depend on a fading fiscal stimulus and on the inventory cycle, which appears to have been almost completed in the fourth quarter.”External balances also support the euro as the region has a record balance of payment surplus of 2.2 percent of gross domestic product, compared with a deficit of 3.9 percent of GDP by the U.S., the bank said.
  • #210,834
  • Mar 14, 2010 10:05am Mar 14, 2010 10:05am
Quoting jsspmk
Question: Do I need to have 1000s of posts logged on the FF to be considered experienced & worthy?
NO, you are OK What most people are missing is actually what time

frame we are talking about? For those who trades of Monthly TF, trend will

probably change way over 1.40 (and from 1.34 that's a lot of pips),

And if I scalping of M5 or M15 I have trends every hour or so

About USDx, if you look at AUDUSD/USDCAD/USDCHF I'd say Dollar was dead

all the time. I remember in 2006 when I was traveling and EUR trades at 1.36 at that

time with CHF around 1.18-1.20 Now look, CHF is below 1.06 to the Dollar.

So, basically, Dollar is weak already except to the EUR. So it's more

that is not the Dollar rise but rater EUR fall.

Possible scenario is when EURUSD will keep steady below 1.40 and Dollar

will tank to all other currencies including Mexican Peso, Russian Ruble and

so on. So, if you not going to be able get much from EURUSD long there

is bunch of other currency to short Dollar against.
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  • #210,835
  • Mar 14, 2010 10:07am Mar 14, 2010 10:07am
Quoting uraceulose
LC,

How do you decide where to put your 100 and 0% on those fan fibs? I haven't really used those much but am curious to know if you can help me out. I see it's pretty obvious where to put the top "point' but then how do you decide where to put the "fan" end of the fib? Do you pull it down to the bottom of the move like a normal fib? But then how do you decide where to put it horizontally?

Thank you for any help,

Donnie

P.S. Chicky, I've been praying for you these last couple of days bro. I hope all is well with your health.
You got it....plot it as a normal fib, diagonal lines will show automatically for you.
  • #210,836
  • Edited 10:24am Mar 14, 2010 10:13am | Edited 10:24am
Quoting SkyzerFX
NO, you are OK What most people are missing is actually what time

frame we are talking about? For those who trades of Monthly TF, trend will

probably change way over 1.40 (and from 1.34 that's a lot of pips),

And if I scalping of M5 or M15 I have trends every hour or so

About USDx, if you look at AUDUSD/USDCAD/USDCHF I'd say Dollar was dead

all the time. I remember in 2006 I was traveling and EUR was 1.36 at that

time with CHF around 1.20 Now look, CHF is below 1.06 to the Dollar.

So basically Dollar is weak already except to the...
Cheers!

I believe that the main time frame that identifies intermediate trends is the weekly chart & daily therefore serves as a trade entry chart. Hence when I post my outlook trend is still down I am referring to the weekly chart. If I was to bank on daily signals for change in the intermediate trend, then I would be dealing with forecasting/frontrunning, waiting for weekly chart to signal trend change is dealing with facts on the other hand. These facts are not holy grail in the trading world, but statistically weekly chart's levels are more reliable in comparison with daily ones.

As an example, recent decline in oil, I have witnessed so many posters calling for a top in oil working of daily chart & below, it's top came in on the weekly chart & uptrend switched to downtrend, when it did so again lots of posters started calling for upside, prior to weekly chart turning. So when I say 'trend is your friend' I refer to the weekly chart. Daily trends are oscillations within weekly trends & its trends that persist, not oscillations.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #210,837
  • Mar 14, 2010 10:17am Mar 14, 2010 10:17am
Another interesting chart to think about I have Butterfly

on USDCHF H4 (isn't she beautiful?), so pair more likely should go up, as it's oversold.

So on the one hand EURUSD must go up as well

Look:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: u_chf_butterfly.jpg Size: 185 KB
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  • #210,838
  • Mar 14, 2010 10:21am Mar 14, 2010 10:21am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Interesting view. Let me guess, why trend GOT to remain down? Because

you are short, who is shorting the bottoms?

Might as well cover and see if you can short it from 1.60

instead
What a Funny guy you are!

I laugh! you win!
Fay All Time Return: -98.7%
  • #210,839
  • Mar 14, 2010 10:21am Mar 14, 2010 10:21am
Expected for the week
Last Week’s levels:

 

  1. Resistance: 1.3650, 1.3712, 1.3745, 1.3800, 1.3894
  2. Support: 1.3620, 1.3531, 1.3428, 1.3388

 

  1. Last week closed as a bull with 1.3745 breached.
  2. The next hurdle now is the 1.38 levels (50.0 Fib) which, will probably see us to 1.4008
  3. We may still be in a consolidation area next week if this pair fails to close above 1.38 and trades below 1.3745.
  4. 1.3656 will be a very important level if we get there this week as that may null all bullish sentiments and set us off for a rangy week with more sellers coming in the market.
  5. See charts for levels.

  • #210,840
  • Mar 14, 2010 10:24am Mar 14, 2010 10:24am
Goldman Sachs Says Buy Euro as Greek Concern Eases

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update1-.html


I am already long, just need YOU to go LONG, for that little push. :-)
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