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  • #210,741
  • Mar 13, 2010 9:44am Mar 13, 2010 9:44am
Quoting SkyzerFX
It's exactly what's going on for YEARS, Strong stock market means,

risk appetite is up and who wants to hold Dollars with 0% interest rate.

Dollar is in long term Bear Market and will be pushing 74 bottom real soon.
I recommend picking up a copy of this weekend's FT, are you aware that Italy has lost 6 year's growth in just 2009? USA was the strongest performer (not considering China) in 2009 losing 2 years worth of growth. Now, they were the first ones to slash down their interest rates, USD is starting to move up expecting higher rates and expecting overseas investors. Eurozone overall lost more growth in 2009, they are almost forced to lower their interest rate, when USA is ready to increase it. Think man, read FT all the time.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #210,742
  • Edited 10:06am Mar 13, 2010 9:50am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting special0nefx
Malc, EW is still in play for me, because since this moving up is wave4 according to the dailyfx chart. And is a coincidence that EU going up is fullfill EW-Wave 4 and your Volume RSX, so we are in the same train going up. But time will tell because all the true story will tell after we see how it react at price 1.42 there.

Because if we break 1.42, EW count for wave 4 is void already due to the theory of EW, wave 4 cannnot overlap threshold wave 1. If break 1.42, your's prediction will in play to 1.52 already
Good point, this level is marked though on my chart not not thought much as so far doing downside & thought more down.1.4213 , the cretical of the all cretical levels in near future.

As per EW w wave to end after 1-5 -abc when seeing daily chart ,if eu in this present wave actually eneded , apparently so ,then new wave started unfolding perhaps ,now C becomes 2 for upmovement or 3/a for down movement.

next looking for weekly, remain same seems big wave 5 unfoling started feb 2009, the whole retracement in the circle is 4 , already on the way to 5 .

fontu
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  • #210,743
  • Mar 13, 2010 9:52am Mar 13, 2010 9:52am
It will certainly help- it will make us pay less at the pump, increase purchase power- however, do keep in mind that US has probably more multinationals than nay other nation- and it does not help these guys much if dollar gets too strong.

However, there are stronger forces at play here- US at the moment has excessive money supply going, and the intent could be to inflate our way out of debt. Result would be a weak dollar. So if I was Bernanke and had to chose between a strong dollar or a weak one, I think choice should be clear.


Quoting dwhiteviper
Forgive me senior members to ask a noob question:

It is a fact that US is a net importer. Therefore, doesn't it make sense that a strengthened USD will make imports to be cheaper to help in its industrial growth and local consumption?

Thanks for explaining.
Its all in the mind.
  • #210,744
  • Mar 13, 2010 10:26am Mar 13, 2010 10:26am
Quoting malcolmb14
Gold 1100 is critical and gold has been dropping for 9 days now. If gold break 1100 then support is 1075 and 1050 .
Ohh, common now GOLD Dropping??? from 1118 to 1102? $16 Dollars?

Give me a break, this is just normal price fluctuations for asset 1 unit of which

cost over $1000 that's all.

It's like start to cream SELL when $10 Stock "drop" 16 cents
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  • #210,745
  • Mar 13, 2010 10:33am Mar 13, 2010 10:33am
Quoting dwhiteviper
Forgive me senior members to ask a noob question:

It is a fact that US is a net importer. Therefore, doesn't it make sense that a strengthened USD will make imports to be cheaper to help in its industrial growth and local consumption?

Thanks for explaining.
Check you nearest US retail store 95% of imports are made in China,

which currency tight up to the USD, on the other hands Weak Dollar is

welcomed

to boost Corporates profits and for Feds to manipulate with Gigantic DEBT

$12 Trillion External and over $60 TRILLION Internal obligations, Medicare,

medicate, welfare, SSN, pension and on and on.. Those who things Dollar will

go higher under those circumstances just smoking something exotic.
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  • #210,746
  • Mar 13, 2010 10:34am Mar 13, 2010 10:34am
Quoting jsspmk
I recommend picking up a copy of this weekend's FT, are you aware that Italy has lost 6 year's growth in just 2009? USA was the strongest performer (not considering China) in 2009 losing 2 years worth of growth. Now, they were the first ones to slash down their interest rates, USD is starting to move up expecting higher rates and expecting overseas investors. Eurozone overall lost more growth in 2009, they are almost forced to lower their interest rate, when USA is ready to increase it. Think man, read FT all the time.
Yup Italy is in a mess , Spain , Ireland . They are all a mess. But so is US

look ONLY 308,000 houses in us had foreclosure , defaults etc in Feb and news is happy about that ? lol

'Foreclosure filings -- including mortgage default notices, house auctions and home repossessions by banks -- were reported on 308,524 properties in February, down 2 percent from January, but still up 6 percent from the year-ago month, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said.'

lets assume only half of those are actual foreclosures at 150 k per mortgage and now house is worth half , so bank loses 75 k average per house.

150,000 (assuming half of 308.000 houses are actual foreclosures)x 75,000 =11,250,000,000 . 12 billion loss and that is likely on the conservative side. And this is going on all last year also . Banks are holding inventory. Whole areas are like ghost towns all boarded up.

why does it seem banks are making money . Why is easy they threw mark to market out the window 2 years ago to help stop the bleeding in the stock market. Banks are losing billions .. they just do not have to report it as long as they are willing to hold the asset till it comes back to the same value as the loan against it. Think houses prices are going to double anytime soon in the US ?. While foreclosure are hitting 300k per month they will never raise rates.

30 banks have gone down this year .... yet ask your neighbour if they knew this. The biggest one this year cost the FDIC 95 million. HOLD ON THE THE FDIC RAN OUT OF MONEY 5 MONTHS AGO. where is this money coming from ?

Also US is driven by greed big time. I think JP Morgan has about 70 trillion in default swaps and just the spreads on those swaps has them at 20 billion risk. I wonder how much of this risk is in the eurozone ?
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  • #210,747
  • Mar 13, 2010 10:41am Mar 13, 2010 10:41am
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1933...-with-bells-on

is there something coming Monday on bailout on Greece ? this is 2nd new source i have read with this in
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  • #210,748
  • Mar 13, 2010 10:50am Mar 13, 2010 10:50am
Quoting malcolmb14
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1933...-with-bells-on

is there something coming Monday on bailout on Greece ? this is 2nd new source i have read with this in
if this is true we could have a very powerful knee jerk reaction

this chart could play out like it did in 2008 when feds bailed out US

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  • #210,749
  • Mar 13, 2010 10:57am Mar 13, 2010 10:57am
Quoting malcolmb14
if this is true we could have a very powerful knee jerk reaction

this chart could play out like it did in 2008 when feds bailed out US

Attachment

If so, it will be of very temporary joy for eu... let's see who's next in line.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...explosion.html
  • #210,750
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:02am Mar 13, 2010 11:02am
Quoting malcolmb14
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1933...-with-bells-on

is there something coming Monday on bailout on Greece ? this is 2nd new source i have read with this in
I don't trade on fundies but I cant help thinking the Greece thing is overblown (relative to US). To save Greece requires and estimated 25-50 billion euros. Sure that's alot relative to their GDP but compared to US debt, European debt is peanuts. Not saying I'm right, it's just what I see.
  • #210,751
  • Edited 12:32pm Mar 13, 2010 11:11am | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting malcolmb14
if this is true we could have a very powerful knee jerk reaction

this chart could play out like it did in 2008 when feds bailed out US

Attachment

very probable, i was saying this a while ago....it almost looks as if market was pricing this in hence rounded bottom. It was on every news feed, "speculators buildup massive bets against the euro"........please. If that were true when they were saying it eu would have broke 1.34 and headed down. All the while, they were spouting this nonsense, smart money was exiting shorts and accumulating longs(as you said)....next week will be interesting, commodities are ready for a fall. Eur/Aud ,Eur/Cad,Eur/Nzd longs looking very attractive to me considering this situation....ive held euro longs from last week on multiple pairs
  • #210,752
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:19am Mar 13, 2010 11:19am
Why do you all think that Euro's current down trend is based on worries about Greece? That's not the case
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #210,753
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:21am Mar 13, 2010 11:21am
Quoting malcolmb14
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1933...-with-bells-on

is there something coming Monday on bailout on Greece ? this is 2nd new source i have read with this in

"55 billion euro? That's a sixth of just a single oligarch (Citi (C)?
Bank of America (BAC)?) bailout in the US. Peanuts. Uncle Ben
could print that in one evening. With his eyes closed. Bring on the Spanish!"

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  • #210,754
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:25am Mar 13, 2010 11:25am
Quoting jsspmk
Why do you all think that Euro's current down trend is based on worries about Greece? That's not the case
Current EURUSD downtrend starts under double dip recession

worries and then accelerate as Greece problems arise.

And it's over now. If that package for Greece coming on Monday

Markets and EUR will blow through the roof.
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  • #210,755
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:25am Mar 13, 2010 11:25am
Quoting jsspmk
Why do you all think that Euro's current down trend is based on worries about Greece? That's not the case
You are probably right.
  • #210,756
  • Edited 12:33pm Mar 13, 2010 11:27am | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting jsspmk
Why do you all think that Euro's current down trend is based on worries about Greece? That's not the case


its not based on greece.... downtrend started well before that, greece bs just added fuel to the fire....nothing moves in a straight line
  • #210,757
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:29am Mar 13, 2010 11:29am
Most here probably can't read German, but I will still post the link: Very interesting graphs and statistics even when you can't read it.

wirtschaftquerschuss.blogspot.com

Doesn't look good for Europe
  • #210,758
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:39am Mar 13, 2010 11:39am
Quoting jsspmk
Why do you all think that Euro's current down trend is based on worries about Greece? That's not the case
In your 11 years of trading did you ever notice how the markets are played ?

What if they wanted to load up on euro at a lower price for the long term ? What if this is just testing of that break out level 1.3500. How would they do this ? One way would be 'Greece has issues'

I posted last week how Greece could drop off the face of the earth and Eurozone would hardly even get a dent in their GDP.

Maybe the Greece fiasco was used just to manipulate the euro lower .. sure looks like it in the weekly volumes.

So with that in mind , gold heading down and could break 1100 and possibility of DJ breaking out please explain how eu can keep going down for now ?

Just to put volumes in more perspective below is a monthly eu .... highest vol last 6 years on a 500 pip wide down bar when atr 14 is 700 pip. This is a narrow spread down bar with ultra high volume is is extremely bullish , showing buyers coming in . Why was the volume on the third candle down ? Smart money buys in weakness and sells on strength .

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  • #210,759
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:44am Mar 13, 2010 11:44am
Quoting mfoste1
very probable, i was saying this a while ago....it almost looks as if market was pricing this in hence rounded bottom. It was on every news feed, "speculators buildup massive bets against the euro"........please. If that were true when they were saying it eu would have broke 1.34 and headed down. All the while, they were spouting this nonsense, smart money was exiting shorts and accumulating longs(as you said)....next week will be interesting, commodities are ready for a fall. Eur/Aud ,Eur/Cad,Eur/Nzd longs looking very attractive to me considering...
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  • #210,760
  • Mar 13, 2010 11:46am Mar 13, 2010 11:46am
Quoting mfoste1
its not based on greece.... downtrend started well before that, greece bs just added fuel to the fire.

All then paid analysts have to have a reason, it's hard to justify your paycheck saying the euro went here, or the dollar gained strength without a reason why, even if that reason is pulled out of their back sides.
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