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  • #210,641
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:38pm Mar 12, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting kuroro001
I've received a mail this morning from someone from Morgan Stanley saying that the whole rise we've seen this week was mostly used for hedge funds to start selling future indexes, buying puts , etc..

And yesterday a big institutional funds boughts huge puts (dec 2010) on the S&P & Nasdaq (for billions of $)

Something definitely not right...what do you think ?
Do you have information on this huge buy of puts? Something that large should be somewhere. I find it highly impossible that a fund spent billions on december options. There are much safer ways to sell the market without risking 100% of your investment.

Are you saying they spent billions Buying these puts or the value of the puts is billions?
  • #210,642
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:40pm Mar 12, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting Clouds
I'm still bearish, buddy.

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me2
Cloud still have sell with aud/u?
  • #210,643
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:41pm Mar 12, 2010 1:41pm
Quoting Clouds
I'm still bearish, buddy.

Attachment
lol Clouds you are Perma bear ....

here is weekly EU with an RSX on it ,

There was only one other time back in 1996 rsx was this low. Now that is not to say that we could not get another drop , but with both the US indexes and the Euro Indexes ( dax , ftse etc ) all breaking higher there is no reason to think we will get another drop and form a bear div on weekly rsx.

Intraday is awesome. Been trading GU mostly and nailed a great long off 1.5025 yesterday . Sent it to one of the other traders in this thread by PM , hope they took it.

BTW I am not thinking 1,6000. I am looking for 1.4000 to 1.4100 and then see what happens there. By having these views on a daily / weekly charts i know how to play the intraday. I mean whpo would like to be selling ES this last week ... much better to buy dips intraday

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  • #210,644
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:42pm Mar 12, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting kuroro001
And yesterday a big institutional funds boughts huge puts (dec 2010) on the S&P & Nasdaq (for billions of $)

Something definitely not right...what do you think ?
Puts are mostly being used as hedges in this market. You buy the shares and hedge with puts.

Anyways, triple witching coming up next friday. If we reverse like we seem to be doing, it should be clear by then. Meanwhile, a summary of this week:
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  • #210,645
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:42pm Mar 12, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting egkid
me2
Cloud still have sell with aud/u?
yes
  • #210,646
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:42pm Mar 12, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Dec 2010 is along time away.

BY then eu could see 1.4500 and then 1.2500.

I will check out some volumes on the weekly and daily futures charts on weekend and let you know if i see any thing that stands out

I have noticed that the DJ has been rising on really low volumes , but it did this for 6 months last year for 2500 points. Long term I do have the feeling that this is very tech bubble like and a much deeper correction is due , but for now all bad news dips are being boought into and all good news is causing 20 point spikes on s&p that...
Yeh a long way indeed so i didn't really paid attention...
And i totally agree about that it will end with bloody tears soon or later
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #210,647
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:45pm Mar 12, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting nvcK
Puts are mostly being used as hedges in this market. You buy the shares and hedge with puts.
nice .. what if they are hedging their shares that they are buying? This is a really good point and not one I thought of.

I looked at weekly dj ...insane 12500 could be in cards.

Where does that leave EU ? 1.4500 ? 1.5000 even who the hell knows. This is an insane market.
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  • #210,648
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:46pm Mar 12, 2010 1:46pm
did any one check GU weekly ? double hammers ...
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  • #210,649
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:46pm Mar 12, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol Clouds you are Perma bear ....

here is weekly EU with an RSX on it ,

There was only one other time back in 1996 rsx was this low. Now that is not to say that we could not get another drop , but with both the US indexes and the Euro Indexes ( dax , ftse etc ) all breaking higher there is no reason to think we will get another drop and form a bear div on weekly rsx.

Intraday is awesome. Been trading GU mostly and nailed a great long off 1.5025 yesterday . Sent it to one of the other traders in this thread by PM , hope they took it.

BTW...
IF we go there i will close all of my sell and start to long
DX on very near to end EW4, Daily e/u on bearish butterfly and it's strong one

BUT everything possible and everyone trade depends on his view (MM & TF)
  • #210,650
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:47pm Mar 12, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol Clouds you are Perma bear ....

here is weekly EU with an RSX on it ,

There was only one other time back in 1996 rsx was this low. Now that is not to say that we could not get another drop , but with both the US indexes and the Euro Indexes ( dax , ftse etc ) all breaking higher there is no reason to think we will get another drop and form a bear div on weekly rsx.

Intraday is awesome. Been trading GU mostly and nailed a great long off 1.5025 yesterday . Sent it to one of the other traders in this thread by PM , hope they took it....
As far as I can tell , is range (3800-3450).
  • #210,651
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:47pm Mar 12, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting mmccormac
Do you have information on this huge buy of puts? Something that large should be somewhere. I find it highly impossible that a fund spent billions on december options. There are much safer ways to sell the market without risking 100% of your investment.
I don't have any information yet...but i'll ask monday
I can send you the mail monday (if you speak french otherwise no need)

And i really don't know cause in the mail he talked about Vega Gamma and all kind of call/put stuff i don't really understand

Quoting mmccormac
Are you saying they spent billions Buying these puts or the value of the puts is billions?
I think they spent billions buying these puts....but i'm not sure 100%...i'll check that monday

But what suprised me is that the guy said something like "it's been ages we didn't see such amount for puts"
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #210,652
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:47pm Mar 12, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting Clouds
yes
Cool me 2
  • #210,653
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:51pm Mar 12, 2010 1:51pm
Quoting Clouds
As far as I can tell , is range (3800-3450).
but go check your daily. One hell of a rounded bottom. This pattern is very bullish ... and it has been forming for 4 weeks,

Not to say in this crazy market things could not go south in a heart beat or even spike up for 500 pip in one session .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #210,654
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:51pm Mar 12, 2010 1:51pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Dec 2010 is along time away.

BY then eu could see 1.4500 and then 1.2500.

I will check out some volumes on the weekly and daily futures charts on weekend and let you know if i see any thing that stands out

I have noticed that the DJ has been rising on really low volumes , but it did this for 6 months last year for 2500 points. Long term I do have the feeling that this is very tech bubble like and a much deeper correction is due , but for now all bad news dips are being boought into and all good news is causing 20 point spikes on s&p that...
Malc,

Let me jump in and say thank you. You really were one of the first to come in a few weeks back with SOLID reasoning for a breakout of the daily downtrend that we were in. I can say for myself that I was better prepared with tighter stops(I still lost money this week) on E/U this week thanks in part to you and the charts you posted.

So, have a good weekend man and I hope you make a bunch more pips next week.

Thanks and take care,

Donnie
  • #210,655
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:52pm Mar 12, 2010 1:52pm
Quoting malcolmb14
did any one check GU weekly ? double hammers ...
Yeh it looks like it's ready to rise...
But i'll wait 1.5050 before loading longs
And i'll wait the retracement towards 1.3630 for EU to go long

For EU the high vol on the last 4h red candle right below 1.3800 might suggest we are not ready to move higher ....yet
We need to find more buyers lower first i'd say
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #210,656
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:53pm Mar 12, 2010 1:53pm
Quoting Clouds
I'm still bearish, buddy.

Attachment
me 2... i will change with some proff. 1600 hundred down. then 300 hundred up. does not change a trend. but im watching the ladder on the diving board. the best trend i found in the last 2 months was go the opposite of sky..

ill go long when i see it..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #210,657
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:58pm Mar 12, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting malcolmb14
but go check your daily. One hell of a rounded bottom. This pattern is very bullish ... and it has been forming for 4 weeks,

Not to say in this crazy market things could not go south in a heart beat or even spike up for 500 pip in one session .
Good to see that someone here shared my pov.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=206232

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=206234

"The Side that Knows When to Fight and When Not to, Will Take the Victory"
  • #210,658
  • Mar 12, 2010 1:59pm Mar 12, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting kuroro001
Yeh it looks like it's ready to rise...
But i'll wait 1.5050 before loading longs
And i'll wait the retracement towards 1.3630 for EU to go long

For EU the high vol on the last 4h red candle right below 1.3800 might suggest we are not ready to move higher ....yet
We need to find more buyers lower first i'd say
Bro, i don't think can EU can retrace to 1.3630...My view is the max can [email protected] only...Weekly is making turn into bull trend soon, but need to see next week close above this week or not? anyway good luck
  • #210,659
  • Mar 12, 2010 2:06pm Mar 12, 2010 2:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
me 2... i will change with some proff. 1600 hundred down. then 300 hundred up. does not change a trend. but im watching the ladder on the diving board. the best trend i found in the last 2 months was go the opposite of sky..

ill go long when i see it..

lol, hey gator. you didn't take ANY longs on that move? I agree 1600 down and 300 up is fine but still a breakout and a reason to close shorts imo opinion and reload or better to wait? what do you think?

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  • #210,660
  • Mar 12, 2010 2:10pm Mar 12, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting special0nefx
Bro, i don't think can EU can retrace to 1.3630...My view is the max can [email protected] only...Weekly is making turn into bull trend soon, but need to see next week close above this week or not? anyway good luck
I agree that 1.3695 might be a support to break....but i'm expecting it to break to go back toward 1.3620-30 area in order to grab a load of buyers

We'll see next week...another interesting one


good luck to you too mate
COT: The precious data ignored
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