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  • #210,401
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:29am Mar 12, 2010 5:29am
Quoting wannaberich
would like to see it at 85 to short it to 30 but it seems i lost my opportunity...

volume wise retrace is not very convincing...

hapipipin
look at the 30 min doji
  • #210,402
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:31am Mar 12, 2010 5:31am
This looks promising. Nice channel and dropping into a 6.18 retrace from a previous cycle point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdchannel.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #210,403
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:32am Mar 12, 2010 5:32am
Hi all,

- March 2009 say four marginal new lows at the end of the move down with the final low being posted in the first week of March.

- This year we have seen the same with the final low in the first week of March.

- The key short term resistance area is 1.3735-85 where the channel top converges with good resistance from The March 2009 high and the high of the initial bounce off the low last week.

- A rally through and close above there would add to the bullish bias already in place.
  • #210,404
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:32am Mar 12, 2010 5:32am
Can someone comment on my analysis:

Perfect short position now at 1.3780, as these are previous high on daily chart.

I think it will resume the main down trend. There are not enough fundamentals for it to change direction.

Attractive price level for sellers to enter now at 80.

However, watch upcoming news. Some breakout traders may enter. Negative news, will be needed.
  • #210,405
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:32am Mar 12, 2010 5:32am
I see now 1,50 in long term. i'm long with TP 1,45 sl1,35 started yesterday 1,3622
  • #210,406
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:36am Mar 12, 2010 5:36am
So I guess the rounded bottom is a confirmation. Im new at this and dont know a lot about technicals but is a cup and handle possible?
  • #210,407
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:37am Mar 12, 2010 5:37am
Quoting gatorinla
jury is out still. but euro is much higher comparible to aud versus usd tonight... i took the ea long last night.. its up a few now.. maybe its time for it to retrace some. euro has crossed back above its all time 50% mark on eurx. aud at .9191H and cad at .0205L.
while euro climbs is showing pairs are equalising. each finding a new level comparible before a major move. its friday this may not be the move or direction.
E/A It went to the top

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=206
  • #210,408
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:42am Mar 12, 2010 5:42am
we r almost close to the end of up move...my point view ,here is the 15min chart ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURO ELWAVE TAHA 15 MIN.png Size: 72 KB
  • #210,409
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:43am Mar 12, 2010 5:43am
Quoting TheLastCoke
E/A It went to the top

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=206
im at be...but math said 5082.. im curious to see.. if it goes too it are much higher like 5456 or 6063

cad news could be brutal.. spreads may go crazy
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #210,410
  • Edited 5:51am Mar 12, 2010 5:45am | Edited 5:51am
There is a channel from march 3 and feb 26 on the upside and march 2 and march 10 on the downside with a high of about 1,3850 today. Corresponds with a channel on usd chf from march 2 and 9/10 and downside feb 26 march 3 with about 1,0530 at conjunction with up channelline at about 1,0520.
  • #210,411
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:46am Mar 12, 2010 5:46am
Quoting dbfusion
IMO its a good place to short @3780 +
30min chart gives a sell signal
target 3730 or so .

Might go back to 1.3640-70

closed my longs and took small short at 1.3775

The range appears to be still intact for now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4.GIF Size: 49 KB
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #210,412
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:48am Mar 12, 2010 5:48am
Quoting gatorinla
im at be...but math said 5082.. im curious to see.. if it goes too it are much higher like 5456 or 6063

cad news could be brutal.. spreads may go crazy
I just wanna see what's gonna happend if it goes to .5200
  • #210,413
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:49am Mar 12, 2010 5:49am
Quoting kingfisher
I am a long term euro short..this present one day green candle does not change the trend.

Also the market mindset repeats and do the same thing again and again:

From june 2009- august 2009, there was a pause in an uptrend and markets range and created the same moves- 300-400 pips up and down.

These are same range movements- 300-400 pips up and down before market resume its downtrend.

Range movements neutralises RSI and attract fresh sellers at higher levels (if the main trend /theme is down).

Anyone can open a daily chart in E/U and see...
Thank you for taking the time to explain highly appreciated.
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #210,414
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:50am Mar 12, 2010 5:50am
Quoting Driver55
well.

closed long from 1,3664 at 3762
closed short usdchf from 714-606

PS: dedicated to those who did not believe in 3664
congrats Driver
i am still long (eurusd) and short usdchf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lt_eurusd_20100309.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #210,415
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:51am Mar 12, 2010 5:51am
Quoting plan-b
Might go back to 1.3640-70

closed my longs and took small short at 1.3775

The range appears to be still intact for now

Attachment
do you think the news release will effect this?
  • #210,416
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:52am Mar 12, 2010 5:52am
1.4200 Here I come!

We'll see a retrace first though
In Charts We Trust!
  • #210,417
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:53am Mar 12, 2010 5:53am
Quoting simao
mon ami ça c'est la galere, this is bullshit, this euro moving up like that with any reason :s
there is a reason daily tl had been broken rise up was expected. Also positive news EU and negative rumours US all makes sense to me.
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #210,418
  • Mar 12, 2010 5:57am Mar 12, 2010 5:57am
Quoting X.Oden
1.4200 Here I come!

We'll see a retrace first though
1.24
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #210,419
  • Mar 12, 2010 6:04am Mar 12, 2010 6:04am
A EURO bear market rally in the making

Posted by Dean Popplewell at 5:49 am EST, 03/12/2010

The EUR has fallen 10% vs. the dollar in 4-month’s and is now contained in this narrow monthly range. Is this the fair value of the EUR?

It’s lost 5% this year over European sovereign debt problems and the possibility that Trichet will fall behind Bernanke in hiking rates. The contagion scenario, referring to Spain and Portugal, has traders leaning left of center in their EUR positions.

However, the record ‘short’ bets are in danger of feeling a ‘whiplash effect’. A natural healthy cleansing of the ‘weaker shorts’ is on the horizon.

A G7 ‘bear market’ rally will force these weak dollar longs to exit their positions and provide an opportunity to add to the stronger healthy shorts.

Something has to give and this morning’s surprising European industrial numbers with its healthy revisions coupled with some risk appetite should see us test some EUR technical resistance levels.

Will the US retail sales headline be a ‘friend or foe’ to the EUR?
  • #210,420
  • Mar 12, 2010 6:06am Mar 12, 2010 6:06am
Quoting kingfisher
A EURO bear market rally in the making

Posted by Dean Popplewell at 5:49 am EST, 03/12/2010

The EUR has fallen 10% vs. the dollar in 4-month’s and is now contained in this narrow monthly range. Is this the fair value of the EUR?

It’s lost 5% this year over European sovereign debt problems and the possibility that Trichet will fall behind Bernanke in hiking rates. The contagion scenario, referring to Spain and Portugal, has traders leaning left of center in their...
hmmm, not too sure to be honest.
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Yaruki