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  • #209,941
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:41pm Mar 11, 2010 2:41pm
piphunter: my belief is that price going in unlogical way during news may be because of:

1stop hunting
2 intervention
3 assymetric information, where people digest(indecision) at you described, but alls also because people have different views on news impact, however, finally, equillibrium will be met with all the different views on price impact. Thats the process.
  • #209,942
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:43pm Mar 11, 2010 2:43pm
How about Greece never had an issue ? Maybe it was all made up . I mean money , debt and all that stuff is just words on paper. Who were they defaulting to ?

What if you were large world money pools.... Illuminati , IMF etc etc and you wanted to make BILLIONS . How would you do this ?

One easy way is to create some bs news story to drop the markets so you can make money on the way down fast. Then you can load up on the dip for a long term hold.

I mean look at the DJ it is a classic example. I thought we had the worst recession since the Great Depression. We did not even have a rounded bottom just a straight V shape on the indexes and looking at weekly we could even see 12500 or higher . The US is in a mess .. still is and will be for a while. BUT tradres / investors and large money pools ( i use this term loosely as I ma not 100% sure who they are .. Rockafellas and the likes maybe) will use whatever means they can to move the markets they want to make billions every year .

I spotted that high volume on the weekly dx about 3 weeks back .... the highest volume ever.... looked odd to me and since then EU has been moving sideways. Sometimes the volumes can be hidden in dark pools and sometime they are right there if you know what you are looking for.

Quoting realjumper
Both really Malcolm.....we all know what we are told....which is about the state of the PIIGS. There are few countries in the EZ that have weathered the economic crisis reasonably well.....you can count them on one hand.....and the rest are in varying depths of shit. Looking at the EZ as one, as an investor wouldn't you have to conclude that the EZ is a high risk investment? Moreso when you compare it to the alternatives......USA, Aussie etc etc. EZ would most certainly be very near the bottom of my list of places in which to invest.

Greece is...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #209,943
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:44pm Mar 11, 2010 2:44pm
We are going to break any momment probably after US close
  • #209,944
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:46pm Mar 11, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting vinesh2
We are going to break any momment probably after US close
break where?
  • #209,945
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:51pm Mar 11, 2010 2:51pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aYI_3n1Zc13s

“It’s going to take a very long time -- half a generation -- for them to fix the structural issues they have,” Jooste said. “Rather than a spectacular short-term blow up, a more likely outcome is a death-by-a-thousand-cuts-type scenario.”

Guess what... he ain't talking about Greece... although he does later.

If I had to choose 1 guy to listen to at this point in time...

It's El-Erian.

m

“Countries will thus be forced to make difficult decisions relating to higher taxation and lower spending,” El-Erian said. “If these do not materialize on a timely basis, the universe of likely outcomes will expand to include inflating out of excessive debt and, in the extreme, default and confiscation.”
  • #209,946
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:51pm Mar 11, 2010 2:51pm
everything seems to be perfectly lined up.
Stocks. Bonds, Index. FX.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #209,947
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:52pm Mar 11, 2010 2:52pm
Also Real...

what was the outcome of the Greece fiasco ... rasied taxes.

What better way to raise taxes than to declare you have a financial crisis and need extra taxes to help repay the countries debts ?

Quoting malcolmb14
How about Greece never had an issue ? Maybe it was all made up . I mean money , debt and all that stuff is just words on paper. Who were they defaulting to ?

What if you were large world money pools.... Illuminati , IMF etc etc and you wanted to make BILLIONS . How would you do this ?

One easy way is to create some bs news story to drop the markets so you can make money on the way down fast. Then you can load up on the dip for a long term hold.

I mean look at the DJ it is a classic example. I thought we had the worst recession since the...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #209,948
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:53pm Mar 11, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting malcolmb14
How about Greece never had an issue ? Maybe it was all made up . I mean money , debt and all that stuff is just words on paper. Who were they defaulting to ?

What if you were large world money pools.... Illuminati , IMF etc etc and you wanted to make BILLIONS . How would you do this ?

One easy way is to create some bs news story to drop the markets so you can make money on the way down fast. Then you can load up on the dip for a long term hold. <snip>
Well that's possible I suppose, but a very dangerous game to play.....we know how 'passionate' (for want of a different word!), some the EZ people are. Look at the protests in Greece already, and they will ramp up the action if they feel like it......anarchy and wars begin like this!

I take your point regarding that huge volume spike that you spotted....I don't understand the volume indicator too well, but I would have thought that a record volume like you spotted should have done more that merely arrest the eur/usd decline?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #209,949
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:54pm Mar 11, 2010 2:54pm
Weeekly charts

I have posted this before .. and they got scoffed at

I wonder if this will play out ...1.4xxxx ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euweekly .jpg Size: 128 KB
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  • #209,950
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:54pm Mar 11, 2010 2:54pm
Just to remind everyone Futures contract expiry is monday!

hedge funds are heavily short, they will HAVE to buy back all contracts before end of play Monday otherwise they will take delivery of said currency.

The big question is how many will be buying back and then selling Junes contract, or just buying back and cutting losses/taking profits??
  • #209,951
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:56pm Mar 11, 2010 2:56pm
Quoting realjumper
Well that's possible I suppose, but a very dangerous game to play.....we know how 'passionate' (for want of a different word!), some the EZ people are. Look at the protests in Greece already, and they will ramp up the action if they feel like it......anarchy and wars begin like this!

I take your point regarding that huge volume spike that you spotted....I don't understand the volume indicator too well, but I would have thought that a record volume like you spotted should have done more that merely arrest the eur/usd decline?
there was a simialr one on GU futures in July of last year. IT took several months of distribution for GU to drop

Looking back in eu's charts it seems that these consolidation periods take about 7 weeks and it seems more responsive than GU. So with in the next 2 weeks we MAY see some strong up move
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #209,952
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:56pm Mar 11, 2010 2:56pm
SP 500 1150
Gold 1108

who is lying ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #209,953
  • Mar 11, 2010 2:56pm Mar 11, 2010 2:56pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Also Real...

what was the outcome of the Greece fiasco ... rasied taxes.

What better way to raise taxes than to declare you have a financial crisis and need extra taxes to help repay the countries debts ?
Raising taxes with no tangible benefit to the poor wage and salary earner is another dangerous game to play.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #209,954
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:00pm Mar 11, 2010 3:00pm
Quoting realjumper
Raising taxes with no tangible benefit to the poor wage and salary earner is another dangerous game to play.....

They were only raising rates to 45% on high earners .. and that is lieklt marginal ( upper tax rates) . I thought wow .. no different from Canada what r they bitching about ?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #209,955
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:00pm Mar 11, 2010 3:00pm
I'm not sure I agree with this.. but I found it interesting nonetheless.

GOLD SITS ON A COILED SPRING
The gold price has an eerie sense of stabilty about it, a false stability in my view. Absolutely nothing has changed in the global pursuit of ruinous monetary inflation, as all Western currencies are fatally damaged. The monetary growth is at full throttle. Estimates for USGovt deficits are periodically being revised upward. The USDollar continues to benefit from the structurally damaged alternative pseudo-reserve in the Euro currency. Look for short covering to blast a hole in the FOREX market soon, as the Euro will begin to race higher when either kind of resolution comes. If Greece is expelled as in my forecast, the Euro will look trim, especially upon instant expectation of expulsion quickly of Italy and Spain. If Greece is rescued, then a new wave of profligate bond rescue will indeed occur. But the cloak of uncertainty will work to lift the defective Euro currency and lead to a short cover rally. Either way, the USDollar will resume its decline, the tail on the Euro dog. Mentioned before, my best sources indicate without any equivocation that German leaders will talk of solidarity, say all the right things, but offer no aid to Greece as it suffers the desired default and removal from the European Monetary Union that shares Euro currency usage. The end to German sponsored welfare has been planned and sealed.
  • #209,956
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:06pm Mar 11, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting malcolmb14
They were only raising rates to 45% on high earners .. and that is lieklt marginal ( upper tax rates) . I thought wow .. no different from Canada what r they bitching about ?
The high earners are also the big spenders.....a country has to have cash flow, just the same as a business does.

Here in NZ, at the upcoming budget they are talking about raising GST to 15% from 12.5%. The govt is also talking about a reduction in personal taxes to compensate. The reality though is that the high earners will get the greatest personal tax cut.....and they will be the least affected by the GST rise. Us Kiwi's are not like the EU people who will protest to the max.....we are pussy cats and will let them get away with it.....but, the people are not stupid, and if the govt doesn't get this right.....they will be out on the ear come next election.

Raising taxes pisses off the majority, every time.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #209,957
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:11pm Mar 11, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting malcolmb14
They were only raising rates to 45% on high earners .. and that is lieklt marginal ( upper tax rates) . I thought wow .. no different from Canada what r they bitching about ?
lol

in Brazil it's 27,5% and believe me, it's already too much

lots of other "hidden" taxes and voilá, almost 50% here
  • #209,958
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:13pm Mar 11, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting DMA Trader
everything seems to be perfectly lined up.
Stocks. Bonds, Index. FX.
.........and majors at resistance #190
  • #209,959
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:25pm Mar 11, 2010 3:25pm
Just got text on Iphone form CNBC ...

s&p closed at highest level since october 1 , 2008. Recession is over ...

talk about market manipulation !!!!

did anyone stop to consdier that a bank went down 2 weeks ago that cost the FDIC 95 million ... 1/7th of the TARP that rescued America .....yet the FDIC is broke and about 6 months back they raised 45 million in 5 year advanced fees

And as for foreclosures I saw something about the least foreclosures in months this month , which is great considering Novemeber was the highest on record at 325,000 .... about 32 billion in value and I bet half that was write downs to banks that we shal never see due to mark to market rules being thrown out the window as of 18 months ago.

oh well lets all enjoy anyway and make hay while the sun shines

This is why fundies are a bunch of rubbish and charts rule.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #209,960
  • Mar 11, 2010 3:27pm Mar 11, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Just got text on Iphone form CNBC ...

s&p closed at highest level since october 1 , 2008. Recession is over ...

talk about market manipulation !!!!

did anyone stop to consdier that a bank went down 2 weeks ago that cost the FDIC 95 million ... 1/7th of the TARP...
I sold all my BOFA stock today. Bought one year ago exactly.
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