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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #32,721
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:25am Mar 11, 2010 4:25am
Hello occam and welcome
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #32,722
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:31am Mar 11, 2010 4:31am
Short again with 1H 200 SMA - I love when Major MA just crossing pivot point ( it makes nice touch trade- no PA lower tf confirmation needed) .
  • #32,723
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:36am Mar 11, 2010 4:36am
Quoting Gladis Night
Hello occam and welcome
Thanks GN. Glad to have finally arrived at the party
  • #32,724
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:39am Mar 11, 2010 4:39am
Quoting occamsrazors
Thanks GN. Glad to have finally arrived at the party
Good to have you on board i hope that one of our experienced traders will be able to answer your questions when they visit thread
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #32,725
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:48am Mar 11, 2010 4:48am
Quoting Gladis Night
Good to have you on board i hope that one of our experienced traders will be able to answer your questions when they visit thread
Cool, no probs. So 770 posts doesn't make you experienced yet lol?
  • #32,726
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:54am Mar 11, 2010 4:54am
[quote=occamsrazors;3541774]Hi All. I've been lurking in this thread for a week or so, slowly absorbing the PDF and older posts, and figured it was time to say hello. Thanks to EOhater and everyone who kept the thread alive so I could stumble across it!

Hoo Wee great first post occam,very impressive.your probably going to need Eo or one of the senior members to give a good analysis of your questions.All I can add is trade with the trend,so yes your yellow elipse would've been good enough for me.the shooting star was just one of those that did'nt work out (nothing's perfect eh).Regarding your stop then the name of the game is to hang on to your cash,so either above the next ema or maybe 2 ema's up,just personal choice i suppose.It still came up and took you out though,like I said unlucky on that one,although if you notice the first white candle in the run up to your shooting star it was a DBLHC,so perhaps a long would have been the better choice and that might have kept you from taking a short on the shooting star (red elipse) in the first place.Hope some of that helps,if not ignore it hahaha.
  • #32,727
  • Mar 11, 2010 4:57am Mar 11, 2010 4:57am
Quoting occamsrazors
Cool, no probs. So 770 posts doesn't make you experienced yet lol?
LOL I like the company on this thread thus 770 posts . But still learning this way of trading
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #32,728
  • Mar 11, 2010 5:21am Mar 11, 2010 5:21am
[quote=Deputy Dawg;3541883]
Quoting occamsrazors
Hi All. I've been lurking in this thread for a week or so, slowly absorbing the PDF and older posts, and figured it was time to say hello. Thanks to EOhater and everyone who kept the thread alive so I could stumble across it!

Hoo Wee great first post occam,very impressive.your probably going to need Eo or one of the senior members to give a good analysis of your questions.All I can add is trade with the trend,so yes your yellow elipse would've been good enough for me.the shooting star was just one of those that did'nt...
Thanks DD! OK, like the idea of SL just behind the 1st or 2nd EMA. Certainly tightens the stop and then if no success wait try again at the 35/50 MAs.

Not sure I understand why the white DBLHC candle would affect the shooting star candle 3 candles later? Are you saying it was too soon to enter short again with the DBLHC? I wasn't sure how strong the DBLHC was as the white candle wasn't engulfing and had a longer a longer wick (but I'll be the first to admit I'm not an expert on candlesticks...only started looking at them seriously after reading this thread!)
  • #32,729
  • Mar 11, 2010 5:51am Mar 11, 2010 5:51am
[quote=occamsrazors;3541978]
Quoting Deputy Dawg


Not sure I understand why the white DBLHC candle would affect the shooting star candle 3 candles later? Are you saying it was too soon to enter short again with the DBLHC? I wasn't sure how strong the DBLHC was as the white candle wasn't engulfing and had a longer a longer wick (but I'll be the first to admit I'm not an expert on candlesticks...only started looking at them seriously after reading this thread!)
Sorry,what I meant was that you might have taken a long at the DBLHC and therefore already been in a long trade for about an hour before the shooting star appeared,and once that Sstar appeared you would have to make your own call whether to hold the long and manage the trade,close out and take your pips or take the Sstar and reverse to a short trade.
  • #32,730
  • Mar 11, 2010 5:58am Mar 11, 2010 5:58am
[quote=Deputy Dawg;3542060]
Quoting occamsrazors

Sorry,what I meant was that you might have taken a long at the DBLHC and therefore already been in a long trade for about an hour before the shooting star appeared,and once that Sstar appeared you would have to make your own call whether to hold the long and manage the trade,close out and take your pips or take the Sstar and reverse to a short trade.
Lol ok yep, now I understand. I was thinking there must be something really mystical about the DBLHC that I don't know about!

Thanks DD
  • #32,731
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:02am Mar 11, 2010 6:02am
Quoting Gladis Night
LOL I like the company on this thread thus 770 posts . But still learning this way of trading
Chuckle, I had noticed that when going thru the recent posts (like the company in the thread that is, not that you're still learning...think I'll just shut up now before I say something else that gets me into trouble!)
  • #32,732
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:13am Mar 11, 2010 6:13am
Quoting occamsrazors
Chuckle, I had noticed that when going thru the recent posts (like the company in the thread that is, not that you're still learning...think I'll just shut up now before I say something else that gets me into trouble!)
always feel free to ask questions or just have a rant if you need to, trading can be a lonely business
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #32,733
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:16am Mar 11, 2010 6:16am
Good MAE Everyone
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #32,734
  • Mar 11, 2010 6:23am Mar 11, 2010 6:23am
Good morning Chris. i hope you are well today
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #32,735
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:39am Mar 11, 2010 7:39am
Good morning dudes and dudettes!!
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #32,736
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:43am Mar 11, 2010 7:43am
Good morning bkg. I hope you are well today
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #32,737
  • Mar 11, 2010 7:55am Mar 11, 2010 7:55am
Good morning GN, bkg et al
  • #32,738
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:00am Mar 11, 2010 8:00am
Good morning Denny, i hope you are well today
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #32,739
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:27am Mar 11, 2010 8:27am
Are there any of my buddies out there that can design an EA that alerts when a candle closes thru the 35 ma and moves beyond that close 35 pips? I would like to have an EA for that and see how it works out.
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #32,740
  • Mar 11, 2010 8:35am Mar 11, 2010 8:35am
Quoting occamsrazors
Hi All. I've been lurking in this thread for a week or so, slowly absorbing the PDF and older posts, and figured it was time to say hello. Thanks to EOhater and everyone who kept the thread alive so I could stumble across it!

I came across the following comment by EOhater on one of Macc's posts and figured I better make sure I understand the 35 pip zone concept.



Could someone please have a look at the chart below to see if I have got the concept of the 35 pip zone below the last candle to close across the 35 EMA correct. The blue ellipse...
Hi Occam and welcome to the thread.

In the absence of EO's input I'll chip in with my 2 pence (although Deputy Dawg's gave an excellent take on things)

Looks like you've got the 35 pip zone concept correct although I would just clarify that it's the 35 S MA (simple ma not exponential).

Regarding your questions:

1. The yellow ellipse trade you highlighted is a valid trade in my opinion. When she's ranging either side of the 15m ma's any PA at the range extremes doesn't necessarily send her back "across" the ma's. She could stop and reverse at the 35 &/or 50 ma's as per the example you show. Other factors would help make the call in that situation. I personally had some minor s/r at 14980 at the area you're referring to so I saw it as a retrace to the underside of that s/r for a short opportunity.

2. I know EO considers the 15m 50ema a significant ma and there is the option to trade a reversal away from it (either on touch or with confirming 15m PA). There was UK news released at the time that candle reached the ma (9.30GMT) which turned out to be bad news.

3. As Deputy Dawg said, the driving PA at the time of the shooting star was the DBLHC so "ideally" you would have already been long at that point. I would add that the DBLHC occurred at some reasonably significant s/r I had at 14886 & 14897 so that would reinforce (for me) a move back to at least the 35/50 ma's once that s/r had held.
When she's moving back through the 5/10/21 ma's like that she can often throw up candle signals which can be read either way (long or short). Never easy. As DD said, nothing is 100% guaranteed, hence the need for good money/trade management.

I personally picked up the 35sma +/- 35 pip zone "concept" quite quickly but then took the time in front of the charts to watch how price behaved in parallel with it under various conditions. Reading of PA and where it's occurring, along with what's happening on the higher time frames always adds clarity (for me).

One thing I picked up from the seniors on here is that there's not much to beat time in front of the charts (though that's not always easy for everyone's circumstances)

Macc

Macc
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