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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #57,701
  • Mar 9, 2010 6:56pm Mar 9, 2010 6:56pm
Quoting joelcf
That isnt really how probability works. I cant remember exactly, but I think it was Elder pushing this line (maybe Van Tharp though - my brain is jumping around today like Tom Cruise on a couch), and it's erroneous at best.

Basically, assuming you have an 'edge' (ie, a positive expectancy), then in the long term your results will approach that value. The usual examples are flipping a coin or rolling a die - for every roll, we have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 6, about 16.7%. Roll it a million times and you will end up pretty close to...

We have a winner!!!! For me I know if I change it up if it is good or not in a few weeks because I have a few 100 trades, the 4hr / daily guys may get a nice 6 month run then 2 years of crap before they even know if they can trade or not Feet to the fire!
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #57,702
  • Mar 9, 2010 7:00pm Mar 9, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
This one popped up on my radar as a potential 1% risk live account trade....


Reasons it's not a 2%-3% trade:
1. not a swing low
2. lots of traffic (as seen by green horizontal lines)
3. not touching any very big round number

Reasons I like it:
1. not heading toward any very big round number/EMA
2. no Fibonacci levels blocking it's path
3. bouncing off a very proven PPZ @ .9064


I am very hesitant here.... maybe I'm overconfident to even consider it because of the last U/J trade I took....

Last trade is in the past and make it that way.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #57,703
  • Mar 9, 2010 7:02pm Mar 9, 2010 7:02pm
Quoting joelcf
That's why I need to learn it. There always seems to be lots of yelling, a bunch of hotties standing around cheering, people getting really into it and saying/doing crazy things for luck and it just seems like alot of fun. At a low house edge.



Unless you find a roulette wheel with no zeros, playing house way in Pai Gow is about the only one I can think of. But Pai Gow is confusing, I was way too drunk when I played it and didnt know what I was doing, and the people who play it are weird. Crazy drunk HK businessmen who start singing when they...

Be like my brother and pay people to find a machine that pays incorrectly LOL
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #57,704
  • Mar 9, 2010 7:35pm Mar 9, 2010 7:35pm
I doubt that anybody is surprised why this PB failed or did it fail at all. the price went where it was supposed to.

This is why it failed from pure technical point of view.
1. it was against the trend.
2. it bounced from the air, can anyone see any interesting zone near the top of the PB?
3. the strength of the bounce was nothing compared to the previous bars and at last the first trouble area is clearly seen even on daily TF. it was right under the bottom of the PB there's a strong confluence on 4H time frame.

Everything comes to the location, if the location is poor its much more profitable to be on the other side of the trade, It's a great edge for me.
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  • #57,705
  • Mar 9, 2010 8:15pm Mar 9, 2010 8:15pm
This market died or is scared to hell at least lol
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  • #57,706
  • Edited 9:24pm Mar 9, 2010 9:22pm | Edited 9:24pm
Quoting joelcf
If you hit the 'quote' button (at the bottom right of the posts) to reply to someone's post, it should do it automagically.

Otherwise, the format is [q.uote=triger88990;3534153] textextext
, without the "." between the q and u (just needed those so the actual code showed up). Your quotes seem to be missing the closing tag (the [/quote] bit at the end)[/quote]

Thanks but I thought that is what I am doing
Obviously you fixed it with mental magic.
  • #57,707
  • Mar 9, 2010 9:23pm Mar 9, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting joelcf
Unless you find a roulette wheel with no zeros, playing house way in Pai Gow is about the only one I can think of. But Pai Gow is confusing, I was way too drunk when I played it and didnt know what I was doing, and the people who play it are weird. Crazy drunk HK businessmen who start singing when they win.

I think there are a few weird blackjack variations that come close too, especially with basic strategy - singledeck with 2:1 for suited naturals maybe? Assuming you can find it.

(technically, poker has no house edge on the cards, but then...
Ryan was on the right track, the only other casino game to offer true odds is video poker....the bet: double or nothing, only some machines do it though.
  • #57,708
  • Mar 9, 2010 9:25pm Mar 9, 2010 9:25pm
Quoting datogio
I doubt that anybody is surprised why this PB failed or did it fail at all. the price went where it was supposed to.

This is why it failed from pure technical point of view.
1. it was against the trend.
2. it bounced from the air, can anyone see any interesting zone near the top of the PB?
3. the strength of the bounce was nothing compared to the previous bars and at last the first trouble area is clearly seen even on daily TF. it was right under the bottom of the PB there's a strong confluence on 4H time frame.

Everything comes to the location,...

Nice datogio.

And if the other side happens to be with the trend all the better. Notice how the PB (or pinish BEOB) had to fullfill itself at its 1st trouble area which is a strong level noted by your 4 hour confluences. PA setups tend to do that even if not at the most ideal location.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #57,709
  • Edited 9:32pm Mar 9, 2010 9:28pm | Edited 9:32pm
[quote=joelcf;3536038]
To wrap up this dicey (see what I did there?!) analogy,

Have you no shame ?
Hey I learned two things today
No only one.
I thought it would put a partial post in the box also.
O no two things it's the closing tag. I know I know you already told me that.
  • #57,710
  • Mar 9, 2010 9:42pm Mar 9, 2010 9:42pm
Quoting jarroo
Nice datogio.

And if the other side happens to be with the trend all the better. Notice how the PB (or pinish BEOB) had to fullfill itself at its 1st trouble area which is a strong level noted by your 4 hour confluences. PA setups tend to do that even if not at the most ideal location.
Yes nice point Jarroo. The confluences are some kind of gravity and PAs are just pushing the price to them, well if the PA is of high quality it can push the price strongly enough to break that confluence. but in this case it was clear that the purpose of that daily PB and 4H BEOB was just to push the price to that zone.
  • #57,711
  • Mar 9, 2010 9:48pm Mar 9, 2010 9:48pm
Quoting bapxyz
Thanks but I thought that is what I am doing
Obviously you fixed it with mental magic.
I think you might be accidently deleting the closing tag when you post.

Quoting Icehocey77
Ryan was on the right track, the only other casino game to offer true odds is video poker....the bet: double or nothing, only some machines do it though.
ah. Video poker machines are a little different here - they arent allowed in casinos (yay, protectionism) but they are packed in every pub/club... with a legislated 13% edge.

Australia is kinda dumb like that.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #57,712
  • Mar 9, 2010 9:50pm Mar 9, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting datogio
Yes nice point Jarroo. The confluences are some kind of gravity and PAs are just pushing the price to them, well if the PA is of high quality it can push the price strongly enough to break that confluence. but in this case it was clear that the purpose of that daily PB and 4H BEOB was just to push the price to that zone.
Yeah. Push Price to that zone and then continue on with the upward trend. I'm sure the Rac-man would agree with this approach, if not, you can teach him. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #57,713
  • Mar 9, 2010 9:50pm Mar 9, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting joelcf
...
The issue is variance. Over the short term, our results can vary considerably from what they 'should' be.....

 Also, all this dice talk makes me wish I knew how to play craps

* this isnt to say that it is 'better' to trade the 5m chart. at all.
Allow me to throw in an interesting story while we're @ this topic.

I was @ my buddy's office one day.
He asks me to come over and I was like "eh wtf?"
He says, lets see u trade this.
He covers up 90% of these random dots on a chart and slowly pulls it back.
I was like, "what is this crap?"
"tell you when we're done. 5mins. promise"
"ok fine"

So I trade is like a like chart. Consolidation breakout, go with the trend, add on, take off, cut loss, yada yada.
Ended up "up" after the 5mins.

It turns out that it's a P&L distribution chart of 2 people flipping a coin.
In the LONG RUN, according to the law of large numbers, they should both have the same amount of money.
(It is also a "I win you lose" situation of course..)
But somehow, I (and he too) managed to "trade" (the derivative) of their zero sum game (zero sum game... sounds like the market huh?).
If they hand slotted it into 5min intervals or 15min intervals, I swear there would have been pin bars and PPZ. LOL.
(and it does sound similar to a 2000 tick chart...if they did that many goes)
Book was The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets by Mandlebrot, the 'father' of fractal geometry btw. Good good book. =)
--
I don't like craps, but i'd settle for the chicks around the table.yeeaah
One Mind, Any Market
  • #57,714
  • Mar 9, 2010 9:52pm Mar 9, 2010 9:52pm
Quoting datogio
This market died or is scared to hell at least lol

The big boys and the SNB have left the house on this one for the moment.

They will be back though. This pair is not even worth looking at though imo.
  • #57,715
  • Mar 9, 2010 9:54pm Mar 9, 2010 9:54pm
Quoting jarroo
Yeah. Push Price to that zone and then continue on with the upward trend. I'm sure the Rac-man would agree with this approach, if not, you can teach him. lol
lol, don't want to go against the market wizards not ready yet.
  • #57,716
  • Edited 10:13pm Mar 9, 2010 10:01pm | Edited 10:13pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
The big boys and the SNB have left the house on this one for the moment.

They will be back though. This pair is not even worth looking at though imo.
It's stuck there because of the SNB.

(and a massive raft of options the big players are writing below their bid)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #57,717
  • Edited 11:57pm Mar 9, 2010 10:10pm | Edited 11:57pm
Quoting Cyrus
It turns out that it's a P&L distribution chart of 2 people flipping a coin.
In the LONG RUN, according to the law of large numbers, they should both have the same amount of money.
(It is also a "I win you lose" situation of course..)
But somehow, I (and he too) managed to "trade" (the derivative) of their zero sum game (zero sum game... sounds like the market huh?).
If they hand slotted it into 5min intervals or 15min intervals, I swear there would have been pin bars and PPZ. LOL.
(and it does sound similar to a 2000 tick chart...if they...
Larry Williams' old book does the same thing with coins and temperatures.

http://books.google.com.au/books?id=...age&q=&f=false

The temperature graph on p13 has some killer setups. I'd so be compounding a huge % of degrees celsius on it.

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When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #57,718
  • Mar 9, 2010 10:17pm Mar 9, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting joelcf
It's stuck there because of the SNB.

(and a massive raft of options the big players are writing below their bid)

I know nothing about options writing but my point was that by what price is telling us there isn't much of anything going on with this pair at the moment.
  • #57,719
  • Edited 11:05pm Mar 9, 2010 10:39pm | Edited 11:05pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
I know nothing about options writing but my point was that by what price is telling us there isn't much of anything going on with this pair at the moment.
Completely agree, I wouldnt touch it. I just meant that it has been the SNB supporting the 4630-4620ish level, so they havent really left the market...and there are some big options positions under it (100msih 1.4600 expire monday, and about 300m u/ch in the next week), so short orders are just going to be absorbed at the current bid by either the SNB or the big instos.

...didnt mean to sound abrupt, one of the problems with trying to use the dodgy iphone browser



This is what happens when I have a slow day and explore FF a bit too much: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=108462

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It's hard to tell who is being a clown and who is just a complete crackpot.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #57,720
  • Mar 9, 2010 10:46pm Mar 9, 2010 10:46pm
Quoting datogio
This market died or is scared to hell at least lol
that huge bar removed all the orders.
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