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  • #207,941
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:24am Mar 8, 2010 6:24am
At the moment the price have not could break the control zone 1.3685-95

If breaking the control zone is probably goes to look for 1.3835-50

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/5094/dibujouvz.jpg
  • #207,942
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:26am Mar 8, 2010 6:26am
Quoting kuroro001
Yeh wonder what happened....maybe some kind of position taking pre-US opening
Grr mondays suck
I think news on CAD had impact also at US open for starting direction, hour later, we got the right direction imho, charts are leaning more to the long side. I see first ressistance at around 3690 which we must break, next at 3735. I think bulls will remain this week
  • #207,943
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:29am Mar 8, 2010 6:29am
Mostly the NG is owned by the same people as own the oil. The difference is that the oil needs to be refined, adding another layer of exclusivity and also of profit. Therefore, I don't think there is any incentive for those in decision making positions to promote NG or any competing energy source.

I don't know if you are aware, but, just to make sure that things stay the same, under Cap n Trade, there is a provision to mandate that all vehicles be equiped with a GPS based monitor to track their location and distances traveled. The owner would be taxed on that rather than fuel consumption. In other words, "We don't give a Rat's Ass about the environment or polution." The government wants to collect the taxes and maintain the status quo for their buddies. We wouldn't want those sneaky electric cars usin our roads for free would we??...

Quoting redroadking
The only problem with that is that there is no economically viable replacement for oil right now, if there was we would be using it, and someone else would be getting rich. If an energy form can't make it without subsidies, it just ain't gonna happen. (without FORCE) The only other viable alternative as I see it right now is natural gas.
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #207,944
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:30am Mar 8, 2010 6:30am
Quoting BlueGas
I think news on CAD had impact also at US open for starting direction, hour later, we got the right direction imho, charts are leaning more to the long side. I see first ressistance at around 3690 which we must break, next at 3735. I think bulls will remain this week
You are right
Well the overall trend is bearish so we have to take care...but indeed this week could be bullish...
I'd like it to go lower first to take long positions... i don't want to take long position above 1.3700...let's wait & see
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #207,945
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:31am Mar 8, 2010 6:31am
The upward motion of the EUR along the more solid trendline should not fool anybody into thinking that the probability of the downward motion is still diminishing. There is 3 possible scenarios where 2 of the scenarios can point to more downward action and one to a break of the 3800 region.

Scenario1: Reverse Alternation Contracting Triangle. (Count in RED)
In this type, Wave C is larger than Wave A and Wave D is larger than Wave B, the triangle has the form of a expanding environement but the difference between it and a expanding triangle is that, in a expanding triangle Wave E will break the A-C trendline, but in the reverse alternation case it doesnt. The thrust out of the triangle should reach the B-D trendline in equal to or less time that it has taken for wave e to finish. So if this is our scenario, we will be looking for the 3800 region to be reached soon.

Scenario2: Expanding triangle. (Count in Blue) In this case we should be pretty much limited by the 3734 high and experience a motion downwards. toward the A-C trendline. This does not look like the case at the moment, but market is full of surprises.

Scenario#: The Bow Tie Formation: (Shown along the Green Trendlines) This is a very deceiving formation too, having motion congested in the center piece followed by expansions at both end. A strong reversal happens after the bow tie is done

As you can observe from the different scenarios presented, going long in any empty space that is not a buy region or a buy trendline can be extremely dangerous at the moment. If a up motion persists upwards at around 3800 things can become very gray and strong reversals can happen. For this reason proceed with caution on your buys. If you go for sells at higher up, you have a better chance and probability of getting out of a bad trade than buys.

The only possible buy scenario that I see at the moment is a touch down to the 3600 area followed by a reversal, any buy position around the 3700 area can be very unstable and risky.

Good Luck With This Information
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  • #207,946
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:33am Mar 8, 2010 6:33am
Exactly , a wise person once told me that gold is a good standard of vale. He went on to say 100 years ago a ounce of good would buy you a very nice suit and today it's the same. I think oil is much under priced it need to get up to $150 a barrel it's only then when people will wake up and have no choice but to go with other energy sources. We have the technology to do so now however we never been know to be proactive.
Check out the Bloom Box a little cube that will power you whole house.
Google uses them, FedEX and Walmart for now they are little more than ideas that work however with a little common sense they could replace our need for oil by 25% IMO.

Back to trading my charts is showing a very strong push on the upside..
I would be careful putting in a short now.
Dean




Quoting gatorinla
the richest man that ever lived got this way from oil and never sold oil for over 3$ a barrel. this one guy had a worth of the u.s. yearly gdp. when he lived an ounce of gold could buy 7 barrels of oil. (sometimes more). value is perception. it depends what you compare it to. you can separate water much cheaper. oil has better uses then to burn it. if little money is to be made on water. we will continue to trade blood for oil. lots of big industrys depend on it. they have enough money to tell us this each and every day.
  • #207,947
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:34am Mar 8, 2010 6:34am
With the anxiety caused by the Greece situation alleviated for the time being, attention may turn elsewhere ahead of Greece's mid-March status report, says Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "Portugal is the likely candidate and although the IMF's Strauss-Kahn says that the Greek crisis will not spread to other euro zone countries, at least Portuguese officials are not as convinced," Chandler says. Portugal has announced more plans for fiscal consolidation, and plans to cut its deficit in '10 to 8.3% from 9.3% last year, he says. (DBC)
  • #207,948
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:34am Mar 8, 2010 6:34am
right now that is what this chart tells me

http://www.fxwords.com/b/bullish-tri...ndlestick.html
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  • #207,949
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:35am Mar 8, 2010 6:35am
On H4 EMA 50 will soon (maybe today) cross over EMA 100
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #207,950
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:37am Mar 8, 2010 6:37am
god bless euro i am going to get 50 pips if it crosses 1.3700
  • #207,951
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:39am Mar 8, 2010 6:39am
upside still looks gd, gonna hold order long @3639. However, aint really sure if it can breaks 3730. If this breaks up, yes at min 38 is a possibility. But well, im expecting price rejection @3830-3870 by then.

I'm still a bear. Waiting for possible short orders while price heads to 38+
  • #207,952
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:39am Mar 8, 2010 6:39am
Quoting Artcritique
Mostly the NG is owned by the same people as own the oil. The difference is that the oil needs to be refined, adding another layer of exclusivity and also of profit. Therefore, I don't think there is any incentive for those in decision making positions to promote NG or any competing energy source.

I don't know if you are aware, but, just to make sure that things stay the same, under Cap n Trade, there is a provision to mandate that all vehicles be equiped with a GPS based monitor to track their location and distances traveled. [b]The owner would...
That's because all of this is about money, nothing else. To call CO2 a "pollutant" is just a way to get where they want to go with this.

Speaking of electric cars, a couple of weeks ago I saw one of those "smart cars" going down the road. Temp was about 15 degrees F and he was all bundled up with his parka, gloves and wool cap. My immediate thought was, "smart car, dumb person." Tell people in Minnesota that they need to be driving electric cars, or ask them how well those windmills are working.
  • #207,953
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:44am Mar 8, 2010 6:44am
Quoting $maker
EU sucks for me ... last 2 weeks... i have been on the wrong side.. waitinggggggggggggggggggggggggg and then closing thankfully around BE

its driving me mad
i need to stop trading EU for a bit i think!
I had the same feeling last week...what did I do?? I did'nt trade since wednesday of last week. How are things? Almost as they were then. If you don't feel comfortable, take a few days off, it'll help you a lot man.
My humble piece of advice.
  • #207,954
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:49am Mar 8, 2010 6:49am
As long as 1.3690-1.3700 keeps getting rejected, it's a good point for shorts to reach 1.3600 area
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #207,955
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:50am Mar 8, 2010 6:50am
Quoting kuroro001
As long as 1.3690-1.3700 keeps getting rejected, it's a good point for shorts to reach 1.3600 area
Totally agree ...
  • #207,956
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:52am Mar 8, 2010 6:52am
Quoting Nomi1
gator,

do you see euro coming down any time. im holdin my short from 3580. any idea sir.
short term the bulls have made a push. look at your charts. this push is no bigger then the others have been. just a range to me so far. bears are running the bigger charts still. 3690.5 is a bear number. i dont know if we will or how high we will go next on bear list is 3718 another bear path 3737 37845 3832. i had math taking us to 3651.. we did get through some tough resistance to get here.. new math puts 3844 on the list (possible double top if not bulls have it. till they dont) . smaller chart put s/r at 3704 3765 3826. im selling small shorts on the way up. i will stop at 3844 ish.. sl above.. i will sell on the way down larger positions.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #207,957
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:58am Mar 8, 2010 6:58am
I think SP500 will drive the pair today.

If SP500 up -> EURUSD up
If SP500 down -> EURUSD down

My take is that SP500 will be negative today to take some air after last week uptrend.
  • #207,958
  • Mar 8, 2010 7:00am Mar 8, 2010 7:00am
Quoting redroadking
The only problem with that is that there is no economically viable replacement for oil right now, if there was we would be using it, and someone else would be getting rich. If an energy form can't make it without subsidies, it just ain't gonna happen. (without FORCE) The only other viable alternative as I see it right now is natural gas.
there is a verry economically viable replacement... for some of the oil uses... its water... H2O (H,H,O)... but we need to burn oil first...
  • #207,959
  • Mar 8, 2010 7:00am Mar 8, 2010 7:00am
Quoting redroadking
The only problem with that is that there is no economically viable replacement for oil right now, if there was we would be using it, and someone else would be getting rich. If an energy form can't make it without subsidies, it just ain't gonna happen. (without FORCE) The only other viable alternative as I see it right now is natural gas.
*L* really? you can separate water in easily. dont believe the hype. make a hydrogen genarator. it will take less then an hour. then imagine what someone with a factory could do. then think about what the fuel is. nobody makes money. viable? it took us to the moon. it launches the space shuttle. a barrel of water has more energy then a truckload of fuel. there is no pollution with burning hydrogen
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #207,960
  • Mar 8, 2010 7:00am Mar 8, 2010 7:00am
Gold & gj doing well before a possible up but eu showing now all tf below h1 confirm buy & h1 &4 cd for the same .price need there again to go below 1.3662 for buy confirmation there too. so short accumulation still ok for me.it will need 4 or more hrs.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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