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  • #1,601
  • Mar 7, 2010 4:46pm Mar 7, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting engcu90
After doing a lot of analysis:
eur/jpy is going down but 124 is on my chart
then it will go to 118.60 @ least
so i will use my favorite startegy: Hedging
tp for buy order will be 124
tp for sell orders will be 118.70

reason to hit 124: break of down trend on 4hr
reason to go down: main trend is down
and 124 is strong resistance and i think it will hold
if it is broken, we go to 125.50 then bear continue to 118.70
break of 125.50 will change the trend and i will lose my money!
but i don't think at all that this will happen as not some news can change...
there will be a gap
strongly possible retest to 121.90 then go to 124 then some little correction down then go to 125.50 then BIG DROP to 114
if 125.50 was broken and this seem impossible to me, we go to 130
this is my trade for this week in addition to long GBP/USD with tp 1.5350
happy earnings
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  • #1,602
  • Mar 7, 2010 4:54pm Mar 7, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting engcu90
there will be a gap
strongly possible retest to 121.90 then go to 124 then some little correction down then go to 125.50 then BIG DROP to 114
if 125.50 was broken and this seem impossible to me, we go to 130
this is my trade for this week in addition to long GBP/USD with tp 1.5350
happy earnings
why trying to predict such an uncertain future? so much movement you say will happen...
  • #1,603
  • Mar 7, 2010 5:00pm Mar 7, 2010 5:00pm
"break of 125.50 will change the trend and i will lose my money!
but i don't think at all that this will happen as not some news can change..."

awesome way of trading. look at a chart and wish for a scenario. try to flip a coin, you might have a better chance of being a successful trader that way. if your scenario doesnt work out, you can easily say it wasnt your fault cause news changed it... but it is your fault because you didnt have that scenario in mind.
  • #1,604
  • Mar 7, 2010 5:06pm Mar 7, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting Mathias83
"break of 125.50 will change the trend and i will lose my money!
but i don't think at all that this will happen as not some news can change..."

awesome way of trading. look at a chart and wish for a scenario. try to flip a coin, you might have a better chance of being a successful trader that way. if your scenario doesnt work out, you can easily say it wasnt your fault cause news changed it... but it is your fault because you didnt have that scenario in mind.
And you are talking to.....
I trade what I see on my charts. Do Not listen to the Muppets.
  • #1,605
  • Mar 7, 2010 5:10pm Mar 7, 2010 5:10pm
Possible place for a retrace?
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #1,606
  • Mar 7, 2010 5:16pm Mar 7, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting Vanhook2
And you are talking to.....
was directed to engcu, as before...
  • #1,607
  • Mar 7, 2010 7:16pm Mar 7, 2010 7:16pm
Well, so far it seems Tokyo is not nearly as exuberant with the NFP as New York was.
  • #1,608
  • Mar 7, 2010 7:24pm Mar 7, 2010 7:24pm
Hello all


I still dont have any eurjpy trade i will wait tomorow to see good setups but this is one i created daily based...


We can go up to the 125,127 on this week but we will see...I will trade just setups based on h1 or h4 this week,for me no trade now..

Wish you many pips


Cheers
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #1,609
  • Mar 7, 2010 7:31pm Mar 7, 2010 7:31pm
Inserted Video
  • #1,610
  • Mar 8, 2010 12:39am Mar 8, 2010 12:39am
the video of that, it shows he only takes short trades... like 304 shorts and 3 longs hmmm
  • #1,611
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:45am Mar 8, 2010 3:45am
Hi all,

I was just flipping through the charts and it appears another jpy cross the AJ may give a good long trade.

On the dailies the lower 61.8 could not be broken which suggested an upmove which happened and now the 61.8 on the upside is broken. We have a gap up open continuation which suggests a rising window as strong support

On the 4H several pin bars to the upside and the uptrend line appears to have been broken to the upside with good support coz of the rising window just below. indicators also show strong bullish momentum.

Should be a good buy on pull back at around 82.00 ~82.10

Comments welcome
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  • #1,612
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:45am Mar 8, 2010 3:45am
it was a 78% fib retrace up
now lets se if we get a nice retrace down to 122 or 121.50 area
before it go up to 125-126-127 area
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  • #1,613
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:53am Mar 8, 2010 3:53am
Thinking that the BoJ may be blowing smoke with their news last week, and ni intervention will occur anytime soon. This isn't the first time they have been playing along with the angry public that wants a weaker Yen, but have issued words rather than actions.
Hey, if they can weaken the Yen with words, more power to them.

In any event, with the early move higher in the Euro fading, the EURJPY looks like a possible short at these levels with a stop at day highs of 123.90. Also, IMOnot much holding it if we trade below 122.80.
  • #1,614
  • Mar 8, 2010 6:39am Mar 8, 2010 6:39am
Since EURJPY broke through its previous minimum level at forex market - 120.6, it finished by now downtrand @ right 100 pips lower -- 119.6 level. Analyzing the latter downside move, starting from 125.2, Feb.22, it seems that it has only 3 waves. It explains the possibility of the final downside part of wave.

The described scenario is actual until breaking 124.5 level to the upside. We should keep in mind, that this variant is also possible. The current wave scenario means, that the bearish impulse is at it's finishing stage, and the latter move could be cut to only 3 waves. Another argument to this pattern is the fact, than wave [3] is much longer comparing to wave [1].

Nevertheless, we keep the priority of downside scenario, as it accords forex elliott analysis system more. Risk ratio for sell orders is attractive, with stops above 124.5 and targets below 119.6

1 Hour chart is attached in the signature link.
  • #1,615
  • Edited 10:34am Mar 8, 2010 9:25am | Edited 10:34am
short yen @ 123.53...

closed for +67
  • #1,616
  • Edited 1:19pm Mar 8, 2010 1:16pm | Edited 1:19pm
head and shoulders forming on 1hr chart? 122.90 might be the neck line? please advise
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  • #1,617
  • Mar 9, 2010 5:57am Mar 9, 2010 5:57am
out for now with 200+
it could maybe go down to 120.60
but lets see a little pullback first
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  • #1,618
  • Mar 9, 2010 11:18am Mar 9, 2010 11:18am
stopped just on daily average ... what a good indicator ...
  • #1,619
  • Mar 9, 2010 1:26pm Mar 9, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting Fxamaze
stopped just on daily average ... what a good indicator ...
Are you referring to the ADR (Average Daily Range)?
I trade what I see on my charts. Do Not listen to the Muppets.
  • #1,620
  • Mar 9, 2010 1:36pm Mar 9, 2010 1:36pm
i think my scenario is very good till now
closed my 2 short positions from 123, 121 on 121.90 on 5 pips profit d:
it is supposed that ej go to 124,125.50 before drop down
but i will observe eu and uj first before go long/short
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