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  • #207,621
  • Mar 7, 2010 11:38am Mar 7, 2010 11:38am
Quoting Leche Mocha
Do you have link to that COT info?
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/co...ders/index.htm

found the GBP data really interesting massive changing of shorts to longs last 2 weeks.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,622
  • Mar 7, 2010 11:40am Mar 7, 2010 11:40am
Quoting manojsai
FXE is the symbol for CurrencyShares Euro Trust

The chart shows that for the last many days it has been in a upward trend.MACD has also given a buy signal
interesting volume action there ... 3x volume sent market sideways

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  • #207,623
  • Mar 7, 2010 11:45am Mar 7, 2010 11:45am
Tony on those COT reports I assume non commercials will be average Joe and their trading accounts or do you know the definition of this .

There is huge disparity between non commercial ratios and commercial ratios on euro. Commercials are 2:1 long , non commercials 1:3 long.... one of the groups is way off base and about to be hammered . Imagine the commercials put a short squeeze on the markets .. we could see my 500 pip in a week


Quoting malcolmb14
Tony

found the historical reports

looking at ONLY commerical here are the figures

9th feb long 120006 short 56636
16th feb long 119236 short 55730
23 feb long 135,199 short 56953
2nd march 135267 short 66,049

2nd march report there was a jump of 10,000 in the short positions on commercials. I will be interested to see what this week report looks like. However over all the trend is there is a 2:1 ratio of longs to shorts on commercials right now.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,624
  • Mar 7, 2010 11:56am Mar 7, 2010 11:56am
Quoting malcolmb14
There is huge disparity between non commercial ratios and commercial ratios on euro. Commercials are 2:1 long , non commercials 1:3 long.... one of the groups is way off base and about to be hammered . Imagine the commercials put a short squeeze on the markets .. we could see my 500 pip in a week
isn't the traditional interpretation of Commercial positions that the Commercials are primarily hedging, so Commercial positions are considered a contrarian indicator...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #207,625
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:03pm Mar 7, 2010 12:03pm
Tony got me doing some more investigating. Never thought to use COT reports before

Here are the total net longs of both commercials and non commercials ( it seems that under the definitions and rules non commercials can be big profession players )

list is 1st number long , 2nd short

Feb 2 44,671 47,477
Feb 9 41,888 48,104
Feb 16 41,551 45,635
Feb 23 38,824 45,447
March 2 45,897 48,367

The March 2 net longs jumped 7 k , also attached is a chart . Net longs now are as high as they were Feb 2

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  • #207,626
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:05pm Mar 7, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting The Fool
isn't the traditional interpretation of Commercial positions that the Commercials are primarily hedging, so Commercial positions are considered a contrarian indicator...?
here is the definition .. not that clear cut , some can be commerical non hedged , some commerical hedged .

Commercial and Non-commercial Traders. When an individual reportable trader is identified to the Commission, the trader is classified either as "commercial" or "non-commercial." All of a trader's reported futures positions in a commodity are classified as commercial if the trader uses futures contracts in that particular commodity for hedging as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.3(z), 17 CFR 1.3(z). A trading entity generally gets classified as a "commercial" trader by filing a statement with the Commission, on CFTC Form 40: Statement of Reporting Trader, that it is commercially "...engaged in business activities hedged by the use of the futures or option markets." To ensure that traders are classified with accuracy and consistency, Commission staff may exercise judgment in re-classifying a trader if it has additional information about the trader’s use of the markets.

A trader may be classified as a commercial trader in some commodities and as a non-commercial trader in other commodities. A single trading entity cannot be classified as both a commercial and non-commercial trader in the same commodity. Nonetheless, a multi-functional organization that has more than one trading entity may have each trading entity classified separately in a commodity. For example, a financial organization trading in financial futures may have a banking entity whose positions are classified as commercial and have a separate money-management entity whose positions are classified as non-commercial.
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  • #207,627
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:09pm Mar 7, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting Purple
Haha, relax, take it easy, he knows Euro got to go up sometime.. and than he will say 'LOOK I SAID SO!!!'... lol
yup just like i said

I said so when gu failed 1.7000 and went to 1.5300
and when I said dx accumulated usd will crush gu and eu


patterns on weekly take time to emerge .... I am even surprised Tony is beating on me being a senior trader. He must know this.

tell you what instead of being a smart arse why not post a few charts and ideas. At least I lay my ideas out there , right or wrong
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,628
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:15pm Mar 7, 2010 12:15pm
Quoting Purple
Haha, relax, take it easy, he knows Euro got to go up sometime.. and than he will say 'LOOK I SAID SO!!!'... lol
ah I see how you trade from your blog ... nice return on account of 500 % but looks like you just take a trade and hold it no matter what 72 % draw down IF this was a real account you would have breathed a sigh of relief when that trade went your way.

I somehow do not think you would trade real money like that.
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  • #207,629
  • Edited 12:41pm Mar 7, 2010 12:25pm | Edited 12:41pm
im curious with the fed saying they will no longer were gonna make shady deals in the middle of the night. if or not those volume spikes are central banks braking. i still c a lower move on my charts. but with all this talk from respected people i wont ignore this eu stronger advice. ray charles can c the weekly dojis. but other things dont agree. i dont claim to be anything more then a novice to volumes. i got some levels on charts that have to be conquerd for me to take a position against trend other then scalping. 3622 is still important to me. dojis can be explained as indecision. not breaking charted (light blue poc levels) levels higher is importent to me. not breaking those trendlines is also. im not anti going long. im just waiting for comfirmation. if long is the way to go. there will be plenty of meat left on the bones for me. untill comfirmation ill sell peaks..

charts wont post.. ill try later.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #207,630
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:31pm Mar 7, 2010 12:31pm
charts
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #207,631
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:32pm Mar 7, 2010 12:32pm
as gu was mentioned by some traders its actually confirm what will happen to eur/usd . just by looking at the chart you ll know that the move down will start we look for prices to go hugher to sell . gj and ej will be best sellers this week
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  • #207,632
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:35pm Mar 7, 2010 12:35pm
im not ready to bet my best hunting dog on a eu long.. im still on the other side.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #207,633
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:38pm Mar 7, 2010 12:38pm
here is the chart I said i would post

also vsa thread I am in has alot of resource on 1st page including better volume indicator for mt4

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  • #207,634
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:39pm Mar 7, 2010 12:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
im not ready to bet my best hunting dog on a eu long.. im still on the other side.
I'm with you. I'm still short and will probably remain so for a while, unless conditions dictate otherwise.
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #207,635
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:40pm Mar 7, 2010 12:40pm
A lot of contrarian people here, real money is in trends though.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #207,636
  • Mar 7, 2010 12:43pm Mar 7, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
im not ready to bet my best hunting dog on a eu long.. im still on the other side.

I think alot of this week will depend on what DJ does

we are fast approaching the level that we saw sell off from 10750. This is a major s/r line on weekly. A break above that will have gj and ej ripping up another 500 pip this week.

If pros expect high prices they may push it up thru that level quickly.

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  • #207,637
  • Edited 1:30pm Mar 7, 2010 1:09pm | Edited 1:30pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I think alot of this week will depend on what DJ does

we are fast approaching the level that we saw sell off from 10750. This is a major s/r line on weekly. A break above that will have gj and ej ripping up another 500 pip this week.

If pros expect high prices they may push it up thru that level quickly.

Attachment
Take a look @ the monthly DJ
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I trade what I see on my charts. Do Not listen to the Muppets.
  • #207,638
  • Edited 1:30pm Mar 7, 2010 1:14pm | Edited 1:30pm
The S&P looks a little better, but.....
lets wait and see what happens.
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I trade what I see on my charts. Do Not listen to the Muppets.
  • #207,639
  • Mar 7, 2010 1:16pm Mar 7, 2010 1:16pm
Its good to see loads of different views on where we go this week.

For me, i will continue to be long until Wednesday. ~The low that came in on the 2nd march was bang on time with the blue 3. We now rally to the blue 4 which is due on Friday 12th March, but as we are in a bigger down trend then it can come earlier.

The fib time hits for Wednesday 10th will provide a high, so on tuesday evening my stops will be trailing closely. I will then start selling. I have two target prices. 1.3814 and 1.3863.

If the market pans out then we drop until the 2nd week of April.

The fib hits 8cd,13cd,21cd produce a fib trainagle, and the market will definately turn from there.

Only a view, but could be a bloody interesting week. Gold will also rally into this timeframe then have a pullback.
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  • #207,640
  • Mar 7, 2010 1:16pm Mar 7, 2010 1:16pm
Hey Malc,

I just want to say thanks real quick for giving all of the reasoning for your thinking on the trades this week. I'm not long and currently flat on EU but it has really helped me reading through these last couple of pages. Just a different angle by looking at the COT reports(thx Tony) and the Euro currency shares etc...

I'm still reading on VSA but it's really tough for me to remember all of the different "possibilities" when looking at volume...buying climax, selling " ", up thrust, shake out etc...hard for me to pick what is what.

But, it helps when you put it in black and white on your charts and explain it. So sorry for rambling on but thank you.

Donnie
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