Trade what you see NOT what you expect

BK,

I'm short at 5109. not a great entry. I'm targeting the 200ma (10 pips shy of). May I ask what is your SL? Mine was at the recent high then moved down bit by bit. Right now I'm negative. Ugh. gotta go back to work soon.

Sorry I did not get back to you but I got stopped out at 1.5135

Hey EO you had said earlier in the week we needed to go down to 1.4990 to continue north, well we touched it today and the close of the weekly certainly shows a move north for next week I think(ooops sorry there is that word again ).I will be looking to catch it down the wick for a nice ride up!!

I hope you caught the ride up! IT WAS FREAKING AWESOME!!!!

Now, I'm looking for last weeks gap to get filled then short back down the week of the weekly. We'll see how it plays out.

Have a great weekend!

Hello everyone, hope you’re enjoying the week-end. I’d like to ask a question cause there’s something I don’t understand.

How come that GU went up this strong yesterday despite the “not as bad as expected” news from the US ? Is there any rational explanation to this behavior? Does it mean that one more time technical analysis was stronger than fundamental analysis and that the PA was inevitably magnetized by the 50MA on the H4 (or the 200MA on the H1) ?

For the people quite new in the business, as I am, I would like to say that it is important to see the big picture here, because when it broke the 62MA and the 50 MA on H1, I didn’t quite understand where it was going so freaking fast before I stepped out and saw it was trying to reach next mobile resistance.
Not only didn’t I took profit when I got 50 pips down after the news, but I was stopped upward and even didn’t get in for the ride up.

So what now? Can we assume that we are in a trendy configuration, where the pair should now get down again after it scratched the 50MA of the H4 downtrend? Or should we expect to see more upward momentum? The bulls have been bullied for a long time now, they must feel quite bitter.

Sorry EO, you might have been addressing this matter here :

But I don’t really understand.

I hope I’m not irritating anyone by telling my personal view of yesterday’s events, maybe I should write a journal haha. I thought (it’s getting contagious) I might share my hard learned lesson so that other can prevent future losses.

Keep up the good pipping, and take care guys

Technical analysis is always stronger than fundamental, especially as far as this thread goes, and as EO always says, the news may have an initial spike if the news is different to that expected, but it generally continues afterwards in the direction it was already going mainly because the large volume traders you can be sure are not waiting for the figures from Forex Factory to know them and so is usually built into the price. The moment the news was released we had an initial spike down showing for a brief moment the USD strengthening agains the GBP. If you look at the USD/JPY chart you will see that the USD strengthened against the JPY which in turn took up E/J and G/J.

None of that really matters though apart from the spike, because you would have known it was going up by looking at the charts. Price had tried and failed a few times yesterday to get through the 1.5005 level, NFP caused it to spike down through it and then straight back up again.

Eo did touch on what he expects in that last post. If you pull up a chart, you will see a gap last week between Friday closing and Sunday opening, which hasn't been visited since, his analysis is, that price may go up to fill that gap before coming back down the weekly pin (which you will see on the chart), BUT as always he will wait for PA to show him where its going. Sorry I can't post a chart at the moment.

Thank you very much for your detailed answer. Help much appreciated. I will be going throught the thread from the start this week-end, quite heavy program, but I'm sure to learn a lot.

EO or anyone that may want to answer, on the monthly chart I have my next major support pretty much around 1.4060 which is not to far off the low as far back as my charts go back, Any thoughts on that?

check it out...
for those not paying attention, in the last month we have broken through two major areas of support.
The first being 5800, the second being the 4900. That's pretty amazing. The truth of it is over a 1000 pips in a few weeks.

So the big question as always is where is it going next. Well i'm not Miss Chloe but here is what i see for who gives a ratts ass.

we have a severe wick on 1W chart. Same things on the Daily.
Something else that hasn't happened much on the 4H is the breaking through of the 20 EMA since mid Jan 2010. We just broke though that as well.

Those three things alone are great indicators of a strong reversal. How long? Of course i don't know the answer to that but I can take a look and see what is going on with my charts.

Drawing a fib on my Daily shows that we are now just a hair below the 23.6 after this long drop.

I find something interesting when i draw that fib. I see two things major things happening which technically is pretty awesome.

I have my own SR levels at
4975 (which it pierced and bounced on) next is...
5365 (just below the 38.2 fib at 5420)...
5570 (just below the 50 fib at 5615) and ...
5810 (right at the 61.8 fib at 5815).
( two things being my SR's being so close the the fibs which i drew the SR's over the last couple weeks. I just drew the fibs today)

Along with EO i'm looking to fill the big gap from a couple weeks ago which on the 4H will be just above the 62EMA. NICE!!! That is my first view is..after that I could tell you what i THINK but that's not what we do so does anybody else care to tell me what they see? Am i missing something? Am i on target? Help a brotha out here.

What you see on my charts are 200SMA (red) 20EMA (white) 62EMA (turquoise) 50EMA (blue) 50SMA (green). you can ignore all my parabolic SR's. That's something that i look at. Not something that is standard on EO's sys.

Miss that ride, was in class.

I know you rode her well.

Mid terms on Monday, school break Tues/Wed......yeah buddy, brother will be watching some charts.

About a year ago it made a nice move up until May....can history repeat itself?

Would love to see a pullback to the 5070ish area.....with at least a ride to fill that gap.

But Euro could possibly cause a premature takeoff.

Back to Bob.

HOLLA

OK!

Why did price do what it did on Friday. I made this post #32329 and only 1 person asked what I meant. This post was made after the first candle in the circled area closed. You can see on the 2nd candle, that price did go back down the towards the openin price of the hammer. Didn't get there, so buyers were still sitting there for the 3rd candle. Price went into strong consolidation on the 3rd candle. I personally had the scenario in my playbook for the long still from the levels I posted in #32329, but I was also looking for the short from the opening price of the 2nd candle should price have headed there first. We did have competing PA on the daily. It is our responsiblity to be ready to take her whereever she tells us she's ready to go. With the strong consolidation, when she finally broke, she was doomed to break hard. When the noise came out for the US NFP, price dropped down into the 499x area and picked up major buyers and never looked back.

Guys, when your sitting around looking at your charts, do you look at the past? Do you analyze candles and price action and how the following candles responded? PA on anytime frame paints the same following candles. The pattern of candles on the daily are seen on any time frame. HTF charts rule our movement as intraday traders. Think of this work INTRADAY. Meaning, we are trading the movements of the day based off of the DAILY candle and using the m15 for our enty along with the h4 and h1 to confirm our direction for the INTRADAY time being. After ever daily candle closes, everyone should be taking the time to address what PA is telling us and get their trading plan for the next day writen out on paper. If you take the time to write it down, when price hits certain levels and PA on the m15 supports your entry, you'll feel more confident on taking the trade. I posted a trading worksheet a while back. Does anyone use it? My bet would be NO.

I don't expect that many people got in long around the 499x area. I didn't even get in long at that price. I was long from 5020 after the noise. I was also short prior to the noise into the low and I was long prior to the short. None the less. When the 499x area was touched and price kept above, I was looking for the long seat.

So my challenge, I'd like to see what everyone thoughts are for the next daily candle based upon the PA that you see? I have my game plan, do you?

Here's my monthly. I've added some support and I've adjusted one prior support to be resistance. Your 4060 area is further down than what I see as our next level of support. Remember, this working candle is still just that, WORKING. I can go up just as easy as it can go down. To see the 537x area would not surprise me. Even the 570x area could come into play. I would love to see your 406x area. If we break the trendline were heading towards, then I would say we'll go lower than 406x. Look at how far price has moved since she broke the last trendline on my chart. There are plenty of buying and selling opportunities for us.

Brother Dak, I always appreciate your insight. I'm in line with your levels. I don't run fibs, but that nice to know they fall in line with us as well. I'm going to say one more thing, does anyone see the beginning of something that we have just seen on the daily?

From what I can see on my daily, price went down to the trendline and was rejected and headed back up, Friday's candle printed as a bullish engulfing. That, along with the pin on the weekly would suggest we are going up - how far is the question. I would think it could go up far enough to at least fill the gap as pointed out by EO.

I haven't used fibs before but its fascinating to plot them on the 4hr and see that since this latest down move started in January, every single retracement has finished at the 50% and headed back down again, at the moment we are just below the 50% fib of the latest downmove which is at around 1.517x if this time we can go above it and stay there that also would suggest a reversal.

I have a support line on my daily at around the 1.525x going back to 2008 and will look for signs of rejection there if we get up that far, if rejected I can see us going down to at least half way down the wick of the weekly, if its not rejected there I can see us going up to the next line of support at around 535x.

EO, you and I spoke Friday about what I was looking for.Like Turtle I would love to see price down around 1.5070 and PA show a long and I would be on it like white on rice!! I see 1.5260 area 1.5350, and lets not forget that last time it touched 1.5570 she went south hard so I will definetly be looking there again.It also looks like you have a trend line sitting right at 1.5570 on your daily chart.As far as your question about what we see on the daily my eyes are not trained well enough to see what you are talking about.

Hmmm. I'll give it a try. Let's see...

gu +

[quote=dakrusha;3527945]check it out...
for those not paying attention, in the last month we have broken through two major areas of support.
The first being 5800, the second being the 4900. That's pretty amazing. The truth of it is over a 1000 pips in a few weeks.

So the big question as always is where is it going next. Well i'm not Miss Chloe but here is what i see for who gives a ratts ass ........
quote]


Thank you for sharing this, Dak. Analysis much appreciated.

Hi EO.... would u mind post again the trading worksheet... or maybe put it in the first page? i tried to look for it.. but after 20 pages or so it gets a bit frustrating..... thanks.

By the way.. from the daily charts.. it seems maybe we are starting a long way north, as there was in march 2009. the last sets of weekly candle we had really look like those previous ones, right before the big bounce.

let's wait and see....

It's about 6 pages into the manual.

Lee