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  • #207,581
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:46pm Mar 6, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
Down? Up? If this was a 15M TF would you be selling?

no, id be waiting to sell at these levels for a long term trade


If you look at a daily chart from the GFC, this smaller crisis has followed almost the exact same pattern, one big selloff, only one small retrace, then one massive push down, seller exit and big spike. OK times are different yada yada yada whatever, probability says that patterns repeat. Ive said this a while ago since jan. Its pretty obvious sellers are exiting, i dunno how one cant see this.
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  • #207,582
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:46pm Mar 6, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting tano
very easy, look at stock market, djia rallied almost 800 points since dip on feb 5, oil rallied $12 since dip on feb 5. and in these favorable conditions EU managed to do 300 pip correction even not reaching the high of the channel? this last friday all the markets were rallying and EU on NFP day managed only 100 pip rally. what does it tell you? no market goes in straight direction, what do you think will happen when DJIA and other markets reverse or stall? for me it's a sign that down we go from here. 1.34-1.35 area held only because other markets...
all valid points BUT remember this ... the anticipated meeting of Greece and Germany was on Friday with the media meeting at 12:30 est . Guess what by 12:30 est MOST currency traders are on their yachts for the weekend.

also NFP did move dj up considerably only another 200 points and we are at 2009 high ... imagine if pros want this higher they will mark it up rapidly thru resistance , possibly triggering stops and we could well see a 300 plus point day in dj next week .....

in fact es is way easy to trade last 2 weeks off 1068 . so far has given 70 points , like 700 pip , in a trend by the time it is done I may have 1200 or more
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,583
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:47pm Mar 6, 2010 5:47pm
yeah..... I don't know how to pick "tops/bottoms"....but my chart tells me there's gonna be lots of opportunities to get long...or to short the (bull) failures....
  • #207,584
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:51pm Mar 6, 2010 5:51pm
no no it is clearly bearish ...lmof ( being sarcastic of course)

this is for short term traders

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Quoting mfoste1
no, id be waiting to sell at these levels for a long term trade


If you look at a daily chart from the GFC, this smaller crisis has followed almost the exact same pattern, one big selloff, only one small retrace, then one massive push down, seller exit and big spike. OK times are different yada yada yada whatever, probability says that patterns repeat. Ive said this a while ago since jan. Its pretty obvious sellers are exiting, i dunno how one cant see this.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,585
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:56pm Mar 6, 2010 5:56pm
Quoting mfoste1
no, id be waiting to sell at these levels for a long term trade


If you look at a daily chart from the GFC, this smaller crisis has followed almost the exact same pattern, one big selloff, only one small retrace, then one massive push down, seller exit and big spike. OK times are different yada yada yada whatever, probability says that patterns repeat. Ive said this a while ago since jan. Its pretty obvious sellers are exiting, i dunno how one cant see this.
So, why not buying right now and sell at those levels?
  • #207,586
  • Mar 6, 2010 6:00pm Mar 6, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting TheLastCoke
So, why not buying right now and sell at those levels?

thats precisely what ill be doing next week starting sunday evening....i closed out all my eu shorts from 3729 and uj longs from 89, had 2 lot buy order at 35 that never got triggered, went short uj at 90.50
  • #207,587
  • Mar 6, 2010 6:08pm Mar 6, 2010 6:08pm
Quoting jsspmk
1. Trend's down
2. Euro is selling off because of rebalancing rather than Greece
3. On your weekly chart there is nothing bullish, apart from 1.34s holding support.

I understand what your saying and your right. The question shouldn't be "witch way is it going?", but "what are you going to do about it?".

Until it breaks the range, I'll play the range. When it breaks the range I'll go with it. I'm often wrong-----(I don't get to decide where the market moves)----so I've learned to play the hand I'm dealt. Now I would never suggest anyone play against the trend, but if you take a closer look at the monthly chart you'll see that we are no where near trending. At this point it's shaping up to be a range, and the next leg down may just start at 1.43, or this could just be a retrace before a retest of 1.6.

Play it the way you see it. I don't have any doubt that half of the people speculating on direction are right. I also have no doubt that at least half of the right ones will hold there positions until they turn to $hit. Trading has less to do with being right than it dose with quitting a victor.

Charts don't tell the future, but they do suggest when to take profit.
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  • #207,588
  • Mar 6, 2010 6:09pm Mar 6, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting malcolmb14

if no other bs come out of euro zone as in Ireland failing this chart is VERY clear accumulation ....interesting . wait for pull back to 1.3500 / 1.3550 and buy

1.3500 is taken out and daily close under 1.3440 then my whole argument is blown out the water
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Early-...n&asset=&ccode=

Ireland ... or Iceland....? No matter, if the act of thumbing the nose at the European banks becomes fashionable, easy to see it spreading to Greece, Spain, Portugal... etc etc. Big hurtling balls of shit start out as small shitballs. Sure, maybe the "professional" german traders bid up the Greek bonds. I wouldn't touch them with a 10' pole...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #207,589
  • Edited 6:24pm Mar 6, 2010 6:11pm | Edited 6:24pm
Malcolmb,

According to your volume analysis and the fact that there is big accumulation going on in 1.34-1.35 area, is it possible that EU first goes to 1.33xx and then to 1.40?

Quoting malcolmb14
very possible. This is called a shake out and if I see this I will load up really heavy

look at gu last week that is excatly what happened. I am long term bullish gu based on last week price action 400 down one day for no apparent reason and almost retraced 100 $
in my poor analysis ...:
POSSIBLE if fundamentals notice comes. fundamentals notice are what really move the market.
TECHNICALLY NOT LIKELY (NOT PROBABLE) because
in technical analysis you see @ DAILY chart Triple Bottom (at 1.345 - not 1,33) AND they predict the reversal of a prolonged downtrend.

welcome comments... pros and cons
  • #207,590
  • Mar 6, 2010 7:09pm Mar 6, 2010 7:09pm
So, a possible bottom somewhere around here? I think so as the the stock markets seem to be heading fo a rally. Quite obviously the buyers are in command right now, talking bout stocks that is.. I think this will send the dollar index down. Tho I don't really see what pair I want to go long on, euro has problems and pound even worse.
For next week I foresee indexes down a little and dollar up some beginning of week, then I'll prolly be looking to go short on dollar in some pairs.. And long indexes.
  • #207,591
  • Edited 8:03pm Mar 6, 2010 7:40pm | Edited 8:03pm
Quoting The Fool
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Early-...n&asset=&ccode=

Ireland ... or Iceland....? No matter, if the act of thumbing the nose at the European banks becomes fashionable, easy to see it spreading to Greece, Spain, Portugal... etc etc. Big hurtling balls of shit start out as small shitballs. Sure, maybe the "professional" german traders bid up the Greek bonds. I wouldn't touch them with a 10' pole...
Old news on Iceland.Iceland should have all economic ties broken (trade embargo) to it and let them stew in their own shit economy for what their Government allowed to happen to Brits and Dutch and now they are arguing about the terms of repayment. What a bunch of thieves.

Look DJ at 2009 highs already and may even test 12500 .. who gives a shit about Iceland(population 10 and 2 million seals) and really who gives a shit about Greece. Best thing EU community can do is sell them one of their own islands and let them all live on it .. oh hold on they do .

The powerhouse of the eu is Germany and France .... Greece can be snubbed by euro zone, asked to leave euro community or be bailed out by IMF. I know this one thing Greece will NOT be allowed to fail as long as it is part of the EC. Come on get real this Greece is broke shit is just like the Dubai is broke shit at dj 8000. Just another way to manipulate the market down so that pros can buy lower. Will the euro fail due to Greece not likely .. look at last paragraph.

in addition go back and look at 2008 and that volatility we had .. we had 2000 pip retraces in 4 weeks ..... does that mean we could see 1.5000 or even higher if suddenly IMF help out Greece , before Italy , Spain or Ireland goes down ... hell of course it could. If the IMF come to Greece's aid we might see 1000 pip vertical rise in a week .

Just as the FEDS weill never let bank of america or any other to big to fail broke arse banks ( they have already all failed as business models ...I say bring back mark to market) ... The european Bank will NOT allow Greece to fail . This is why the Germans oversubscribed to the bonds .. pretty easy

The zone that concerns me more than any other is the emerging markets and the speed at which they grew and the amount of lending the Chinese banks have given out. They are the ones that will fail if any zone fails. Not the financial system as China is hedged by gold up to their yin yang , but the stock and housing markets.

professional; money is not going to start selling eu here .

I guess you may one of those guys that loves going into a car dealer ship and offering 40 k for a 25 k car . I am sure pros do not like that. Price should go higher in fact before and if the bear trend we have seen the last 2 months is to continue ..that is how the markets work and that is why patterns like bull and bear flags work. Pros selling higher up at a 'better ' price than 1.3500.

This is not the same climate as 2008 ...we may never see moves like that again where something just drops 3000 or 4000 pip with no retrace.

talk to the average Joe .. they do not even know what is going on behind the scenes in the US , the bank failures each , the lack of accountability for the TARP. Is this even being paid back does anyone know ?

There was not one mentioned of a bank that went down week before last that cost fdic 95 million . A few months ago they got 5 years of advance insurance premiums from banks and raised 45 million .... they blew thru that along time ago SO WHERE DID THE 95 MILLION COME FROM .... THE FEDS. The tarp was ONLY 700 million . Look this week pending home sale -7.5% , 5 times worse than expected and what happened .. the 4 point dip on the es got bought heavy . All bad news is being ignored / bought.

Investors do not care about this any more ... they do not know about the bad stuff going on behind the scenes nor do they care about it. The stock market is a pure buying frenzy till it is not. Look at the weekly charts ... 2 little retraces ... other than that straight up . This is not normal action. A bull market cycle could be here as investing in bonds at no rate of return is crap , when investing in stocks , etfs , etc is much more rewarded . i cannot believe i am saying this as I am the biggest bear out there but I could not believe what I saw going on this week in the ES.

Note on Greece

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...y_GDP_(nominal)

Greece is 27th largest economy with GDP of 386 billion , eurozone as a whole has gdp 13.5 trillion . Greece could drop of the face of the earth and the eurozone would barely miss it. It would be like me losing $10 . So what is all the fuss about ???? Iceland is 99th ....wow .. not even showing up as a dot on the world economy radar.. they could go the way of Atlantis and no one would miss them ( sorry to any Icelandic folk no offense intended) , Ireland 281 billion.... even if Greece and Ireland and went tits up ( which I doubt they will ever be allowed to do without massive aid packages being thrown at them ) eurozone would lose only 5% of GDP ... really nothing
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,592
  • Mar 6, 2010 8:15pm Mar 6, 2010 8:15pm
one last chart before i head out for a few drinks

euro with vol histogram last 20 days.... think pros sell at support ?? Likely not.

1.3664 is upper value area , daily close above that is bullish

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,593
  • Mar 6, 2010 8:33pm Mar 6, 2010 8:33pm
It pays to be conservative, sell weakness in bear phases and buy strength in bull markets. To me Euro both fundamentally & technically is in a classic bear trend, therefore to me a possibility of a bounce is not as lucrative of a proposal as selling weakening price action. Hence to say not impossible, yet unlikely 1.4. Will it be allowed to retrace to almost February high? I don't know, just think it is unlikely.




Quoting knuckledrag
I understand what your saying and your right. The question shouldn't be "witch way is it going?", but "what are you going to do about it?".

Until it breaks the range, I'll play the range. When it breaks the range I'll go with it. I'm often wrong-----(I don't get to decide where the market moves)----so I've learned to play the hand I'm dealt. Now I would never suggest anyone play against the trend, but if you take a closer look at the monthly chart you'll see that we are no where near trending. At this point it's shaping up to be a range,...
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #207,594
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:02pm Mar 6, 2010 9:02pm
Quoting malcolmb14
one last chart before i head out for a few drinks

euro with vol histogram last 20 days.... think pros sell at support ?? Likely not.

1.3664 is upper value area , daily close above that is bullish
Good job today, M. - it was fun playing Devil's advocate. Careful with that alcohol.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #207,595
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:32pm Mar 6, 2010 9:32pm
hi malcolmb would appreciate if you can explain this.

i dun get it. you said dx got accumulated at 75 and now it's being sold off at 81? and you said pros dun do this for just 5 bucks?

but we got the highest vol on dx at 80, followed by a few dojis. so is the dollar strengthing further up or was that accumulation at the bottom fake?



Quoting malcolmb14
the world in general .

Think massive moves are caused by one bank out trading another ?

did you ever see my dx posts at 75 saying gu and eu droppage and all were screaming long long long long
NO way is gu ever going back to 1.5300 .... no way will eu drop 1500 pip ?

well look at the bottom of dx weekly and now look at last 3 weeks ...these volume are real volumes. Do pros love buying once price has moved $5 on dx . I doubt it. What I am looking for now in the longer term market is some kind of down move dx , may be into 78...
  • #207,596
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:35pm Mar 6, 2010 9:35pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Banks-...5&asset=&ccode=

More US banks going out of business. Notice that these are all your mom-and-pop variety, small community banks. Well, tough titty, right? That's the way "free market capitalism" is supposed to work. The market is a tough place - and only the strong survive. Or sure you can survive if you're "too big to fail" and have cronies in the government who can engineer gigantic theft I mean loans at the public expense to get you through a rough spell. Yep, long live capitalism.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #207,597
  • Edited Mar 7, 2010 8:21am Mar 6, 2010 9:48pm | Edited Mar 7, 2010 8:21am
my trading channel for next week with a first target of 3751.

for monday i am short with a target of 3585
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  • #207,598
  • Edited 11:23pm Mar 6, 2010 10:31pm | Edited 11:23pm
start of the day.....

John Smith started the day early having set his alarm clock (MADE IN CHINA) for 6 a.m.
While his coffeepot (MADE IN GERMANY) was perking, he shaved with his electric razor (MADE IN JAPPAN) .
He put on a dress shirt (MADE IN INDIA), designer jeans (MADE IN SINGAPORE)
and tennis shoes (MADE IN VIETNAM).
After cooking his breakfast in his new electric skillet (MADE IN FRANCE),
then he sat down with his calculator (MADE IN JAPPAN) to see how much he could spend today.
After setting his watch (MADE IN TAIWAN)
to the radio (MADE IN MALAYSIA),
he got in his car (MADE IN GERMANY)
filled it with GAS (from Saudi Arabia) and continued his search for a good paying
AMERICAN JOB.
At the end of yet another discouraging and fruitless day checking his
computer (MADE INMALAYSIA), John decided to relax for a while.
He put on his sandals (MADE IN BRAZIL) poured
himself a glass of wine (MADE IN FRANCE)
and turned on his TV (MADE IN KOREA),
and then wondered why he can't find a good paying job in AMERICA .
AND NOW HE'S HOPING HE CAN GET HELP FROM HIS PRESIDENT (MADE IN KENYA]


--
USE LESS PAPER, SAVE TREES........
------------------------------------------------------
Just reading one news about Greece , whats going on there ? Not knew what the actual cause behind the present condition , govt. corruption,wastefull spending or from faulty eurozone solidarity? but it is the land of the Greek & when their sons start taking action will ultimately do everything till the mother is save.best wishes for them.

http://arabia.msn.com/News/economy/AFP/2010/March/1276293.aspx

morning to all .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #207,599
  • Mar 7, 2010 1:06am Mar 7, 2010 1:06am
Quoting hwsv07
hi malcolmb would appreciate if you can explain this.

i dun get it. you said dx got accumulated at 75 and now it's being sold off at 81? and you said pros dun do this for just 5 bucks?

but we got the highest vol on dx at 80, followed by a few dojis. so is the dollar strengthing further up or was that accumulation at the bottom fake?
this is a very good question .....and one I do not have an answer for.

I thought for sure eu was toast 0.8 and lower .... but now i see dx weekly and eu futures weekly and all i can say is that the tide is turning once more.Maybe this is just a retrace coming , maybe a whole bunch of seller will turn up in 1,4000 area for the 1.2500 run .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,600
  • Mar 7, 2010 1:20am Mar 7, 2010 1:20am
while having many glasses of wine and lovely food with awesome company this evening I pondered Greece.

what better way to hike taxes than to say they have a debt crisis and blame it on this ?.... awesome smoke screen if you ask me , very smart way for the government to hike taxes.

45 % taxing the rich , pretty much in line with most other countries that have no issues. Aussie http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/co...tent/12333.htm ...180 k you pay 58 k more than 45% ... did the credit crunch even touch them NO. Did the credit crisis touch Canada where marginal tax rate is 43 % ...not at all .

This whole fiasco was likely designed to raise Greek taxes in line with other countries. Hell even Uk marginal tax is high .



Quoting fontu
start of the day.....

John Smith started the day early having set his alarm clock (MADE IN CHINA) for 6 a.m.
While his coffeepot (MADE IN [size=3]GERMANY[color=#bf0000][color=#bf0000])...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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