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  • #207,561
  • Mar 6, 2010 4:31pm Mar 6, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
DOW will continue to go higher and make new highs.. Not just because

Economy performance, but inflation.. In reality DOW not going

any higher if compared to GOLD (DOW:GOLD ratio), but will make new highs

in therms of $USD.
now that flag break out on daily is playing out gold could go to 1450

if that flag on gold does play out to the full potential of the $350 flag pole and dj goes up ... forget 1.4000 eu .. think 1.5000
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,562
  • Mar 6, 2010 4:34pm Mar 6, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting knuckledrag
Please elaborate--on the "IMO"
I'm not disputing that it may head south, but 1.4 or even 1.43 is just as likely as 1.23. I try not to trade with a bias, and it really is funny to see so many people around here investing all their energy in predicting the future. I should make just as much whether it heads north, south,or continues to range.

Based on the last few weeks, I'm expecting north. If it heads south I'll sell. If it heads north I'll buy. I would like to know just why you think 1.4 is less likely than 1.23.

Attachment ...
1. Trend's down
2. Euro is selling off because of rebalancing rather than Greece
3. On your weekly chart there is nothing bullish, apart from 1.34s holding support.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #207,563
  • Mar 6, 2010 4:37pm Mar 6, 2010 4:37pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=224535

(read the comments after the article)

...ok, I could buy this: risk trade comes roaring back, asset reflation, maybe even Greece swept under the rug, etc....

But that does not necessarily mean "risk on" - e/u positive correlation must needs remain intact. Or does it? Can we have a strong dollar-stock market growth-commodity asset reflation scenario? Probably not. Man, this next bubble is gonna be a mutha.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #207,564
  • Mar 6, 2010 4:47pm Mar 6, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting jsspmk
1.4 is not impossible, yet unlikely IMO.

nothing moves in straight lines ...

elliot wave is based on this with down moves having 5 waves and wave 2 and 4 being retracements

here is weekly. For those that believe in indicators rsx is as oversold as it was in 1997 . It has not been this low in 13 years ... stop and think about the implications of that . It came close at 2008 lows at 15

maybe Ireland or Spain fials next week . But why would Greece bond auction be over subscribed 300 % , mainly by Germany , if they thought they would fail .

now lest just say 1.3450 does hold . The implications ( my fav word of the day) for the bulls are hughe .. for sure a 1.4000 to 1.4100 retrace and when looking at weekly we now have a bullish wedge based on the up trend channel since 1990 lows

this is 90% of the time a continuation pattern .

so is a retrace to 1.4000 liekly .... chance are right now it is very high

the 2nd chance below on the futures show we had an AVERAGE 600 pip month , down candle , with 20 % more volume than prior month . This is possible hidden buyers and fairly bullish long term

mostly i trade session by session but recently also trying to get into these large moves. called top 1.7000 gu pretty nice.. in fact within 10 pip

we can see form both long term and short term charts we have to keep our minds open .

If i see a break of 1.3440 and no buying meeting the down move then I will review long term outlook

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #207,565
  • Mar 6, 2010 4:48pm Mar 6, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting jsspmk
1. Trend's down
2. Euro is selling off because of rebalancing rather than Greece
3. On your weekly chart there is nothing bullish, apart from 1.34s holding support.
nothing bullish ? 4 dojis are bearish then ?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,566
  • Mar 6, 2010 4:54pm Mar 6, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting jsspmk
1. Trend's down
Trend is down.. Trend is down.. Trend is down... I'd question that!

When shorts will say: "trend is up, - it's going to be time to take profits

off LONG position already"

What if trend is bottomed already and going up as of now?

For trend to be "down" new lows must be made, and EU didn't made one

(except little slippage on 03.02 few pips)

since 02.17 soon will be almost a month.. So for now NO, trend is NOT

DOWN, but rather FLAT at least.
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  • #207,567
  • Mar 6, 2010 4:58pm Mar 6, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting malcolmb14
nothing bullish ? 4 dojis are bearish then ?
I didn't say 4 of them were bearish, I said in a downtrend you need at least a strong hammer or engulfing formation to consider a contrarian approach.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #207,568
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:00pm Mar 6, 2010 5:00pm
trend is down form 1.5100

BUT 1.3800 taken out than trend is broken

I expect that will happen this week barring spain or someone going down

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Quoting SkyzerFX
Trend is down.. Trend is down.. Trend is down... I'd question that!

When shorts will say: "trend is up, - it's going to be time to take profits

off LONG position already"

What if trend is bottomed already and going up as of now?

For trend to be "down" new lows must be made, and EU didn't made one

(except little slippage on 03.02 few pips)

since 02.17 soon will be almost a month.. So for now NO, trend is NOT

DOWN, but rather FLAT at least.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,569
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:04pm Mar 6, 2010 5:04pm
the trend is down on eur/usd the corrections may be over to the upside and we should look to sell any rally we look at dji and gold and though they are up but its very near to end
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  • #207,570
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:08pm Mar 6, 2010 5:08pm
Down? Up? If this was a 15M TF would you be selling?
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  • #207,571
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:12pm Mar 6, 2010 5:12pm
Quoting malcolmb14
trend is down form 1.5100

BUT 1.3800 taken out than trend is broken

I expect that will happen this week barring spain or someone going down

Attachment

Malc, look at your chart and compare to some of mine Example: GJ H4 TF

before it shoot up.. See that FLAT consolidation area.. You have the

same FLAT base on your chart as well
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  • #207,572
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:18pm Mar 6, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting jsspmk
I didn't say 4 of them were bearish, I said in a downtrend you need at least a strong hammer or engulfing formation to consider a contrarian approach.
well .... 1.3450 on 4 hour getting bought every dip and not breaking
rounded bottom daily
4 dojis on weekly
down bar last month 600 pip average range with 1.25 x ave volume that knocked market sideways

also go look at the daily .. combined with the rounded bottom lookj at how many daily candles in this range have large wick on the bottom

now tell me what is bearish ? other than we are in a downtrend

I am expecting a move up to 1.3900 to 1.4100 and want to see reaction to that move .. it is not unlikely at all ... in fact at this point it is needed to entice new sellers into the market at a better price.

check out this 4 hour

note how ALL the high volume candles have been on down moves in to 1.3550 support ... why is easy each one of these down candles have been buyers .... the reason for the low volume down moves is pros are NOT selling this they are just not supporting price letting it drop to the sweet spot ready to buy.


if no other bs come out of euro zone as in Ireland failing this chart is VERY clear accumulation ....interesting . wait for pull back to 1.3500 / 1.3550 and buy

1.3500 is taken out and daily close under 1.3440 then my whole argument is blown out the water

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  • #207,573
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:19pm Mar 6, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting malcolmb14
trend is down form 1.5100

BUT 1.3800 taken out than trend is broken

I expect that will happen this week barring spain or someone going down
Malcolmb,

According to your volume analysis and the fact that there is big accumulation going on in 1.34-1.35 area, is it possible that EU first goes to 1.33xx and then to 1.40?
  • #207,574
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:26pm Mar 6, 2010 5:26pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Malc, look at your chart and compare to some of mine Example: GJ H4 TF

before it shoot up.. See that FLAT consolidation area.. You have the

same FLAT base on your chart as well
Sky I am in the bullish camp for now , buying all dips... target 1.3900 to 1.4100

i agree rounded bottom .. not even flat . These are mega bullish

wow check this out...

chart 1 = 15 min , 80 pip move out 30 pip range .... 1 to 2.7 ratio
chart 2 = 4 hour same pattern yet to complete 250 pip range ....2.7 ratio take us +810 pips = 1.4300 !!!! oh wow ..... that happens to be a MAJOR breakdown level that has not been tested

OK revised targets 1.4300 ...lol this should get some interesting comment

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  • #207,575
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:27pm Mar 6, 2010 5:27pm
Quoting tano
is it possible that EU first goes to 1.33xx and then to 1.40?
Trend is turning here ok on H4 EMA 100 been taking out and it's about

to turn to uptrend from here, look:
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  • #207,576
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:28pm Mar 6, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting tano
Malcolmb,

According to your volume analysis and the fact that there is big accumulation going on in 1.34-1.35 area, is it possible that EU first goes to 1.33xx and then to 1.40?
very possible. This is called a shake out and if I see this I will load up really heavy

look at gu last week that is excatly what happened. I am long term bullish gu based on last week price action 400 down one day for no apparent reason and almost retraced 100 $
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  • #207,577
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:38pm Mar 6, 2010 5:38pm
I'm a short term position trader.....but longer term its hard for me to get too booolish....yet.
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  • #207,578
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:39pm Mar 6, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting malcolmb14

now tell me what is bearish ? other than we are in a downtrend
very easy, look at stock market, djia rallied almost 800 points since dip on feb 5, oil rallied $12 since dip on feb 5. and in these favorable conditions EU managed to do 300 pip correction even not reaching the high of the channel? this last friday all the markets were rallying and EU on NFP day managed only 100 pip rally. what does it tell you? no market goes in straight direction, what do you think will happen when DJIA and other markets reverse or stall? for me it's a sign that down we go from here. 1.34-1.35 area held only because other markets were rallying. other point, AUDUSD is up 500 pips from dip on 02.05, if EUR so strong, it should have rallied 800 points in the meantime. Why didn't it? And look at GU, how often do you see bottoms like that on mar 01 (although they happen rarely), usually bottoms like that always get retested.
  • #207,579
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:42pm Mar 6, 2010 5:42pm
Quoting sum_1
I'm a short term position trader.....but longer term its hard for me to get too booolish....yet.
Nice, by that chart you going to turn bullish in 1.4260 area
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  • #207,580
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:44pm Mar 6, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
very possible. This is called a shake out and if I see this I will load up really heavy

look at gu last week that is excatly what happened. I am long term bullish gu based on last week price action 400 down one day for no apparent reason and almost retraced 100 $
Now that's big plus to your volume analysis. I know one thing: before trend changes, there is always big shakeout and no way they are going to leave that area without stop lossing all those people who bought up and waiting for 1.40 now.
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