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  • #207,541
  • Mar 6, 2010 8:40am Mar 6, 2010 8:40am
http://www.dormantrading.com/TraderT...nsity=H&size=L
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #207,542
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:32am Mar 6, 2010 9:32am
What can we get from the Greek German issue?
No aid for greece?
EURO IS going to drop//
  • #207,543
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:00am Mar 6, 2010 10:00am
Quoting tradedragon
What can we get from the Greek German issue?
No aid for greece?
EURO IS going to drop//

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle7052224.ece

"Viewed from here in Athens, Merkel's attack on the speculators seemed a hollow attempt to give PM Papandreou the support he needs. The advice from some of Merkel's closest advisors that Greece should sell off some of her islands - islands which British and Commonwealth soldiers gave their lives for against Germany in WW2 - has angered the British expat community here in Greece, some of whom are former British soldiers. Such comments have all the hallmarks of an economic Fourth Reich. Germany already owns the Greek telephone company OTE, a TV channel (Alpha), the main Greek shipyard which has just built two submarines with a 40 degree list(!)and a German manager of the national football team, not to mention property on most of the Greek islands. Yesterday, in both Athens and Thessalonica, the demonstrations turned ugly with the head of the Greek Trade Union Congress - and colleague of John Monks, formerly of the British TUC -being attacked on three separate occasions. Eventually he ended up in hospital. Another general strike has been called for next Thursday (11 March)and I fear the rioting will become more intense and widespread. The Greek prime minister has been valiant in his attempt to calm the financial markets but he needs to do even more, eg at least a 45% tax on the rich and to cap all pensions to 2,000 euro per month for 12 months not 14. He also needs to tax more of the assets and land of the Greek national church, which conceals much undeclared wealth, and to reduce the salaries of MPs by at least 20%. (Currently Greek MPs, former MPs and the inheritors of MPs pay no taxes at all.) As far as the middle and lower classes are concerned, they have suffered enough. The pain is palpable and the very fabric of Greek society is now at risk."


....read the comments below the article. It is interesting to note how much of Greece Germany actually owns. I don't think there is a cure for what ails Greece - which is a widespread, entrenched and practically institutionalized corruption. Its probably the same in Spain and Portugal. There will be blood in the streets of these countries when the backlash against the prescribed austerity measures kicks in, and the euro will feel it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #207,544
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:03am Mar 6, 2010 10:03am
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This is my first post and I am new to this so show mercy.

Two graphs both pointing to downward triangle with support at the 1.345 level. Fib 50% at 1.3742 has held in euros recent push higher last week. Both trend lines intersect on Tuesday suggesting our final pivot point before we head down and break the 1.345 barrier.

Long term fundamentals further support this notion.

Position: Short in full.

Thoughts?
  • #207,545
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:10am Mar 6, 2010 10:10am
Quoting jsspmk
http://www.dormantrading.com/TraderT...nsity=H&size=L

Based on that chart I'm waiting on USDx to break 70 on index eventually

in (1-2 years TF)
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #207,546
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:13am Mar 6, 2010 10:13am
Quoting tradedragon
What can we get from the Greek German issue?
No aid for greece?
EURO IS going to drop//
No aid for Greece, will force Greece to resolve the problems they created themselves.
The greatest danger for the Euro is helping Greece to much resulting in uncontrolable urge from the PIGS to "demand" the same.
Imho, policy from Germany (and others) will restore confidence towards Euro and Euro is going to recover.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #207,547
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:16am Mar 6, 2010 10:16am
Quoting redroadking
Yep.......or worse
DOW will continue to go higher and make new highs.. Not just because

Economy performance, but inflation.. In reality DOW not going

any higher if compared to GOLD (DOW:GOLD ratio), but will make new highs

in therms of $USD.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #207,548
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:18am Mar 6, 2010 10:18am
Quoting The Fool
What perfect world do the "professionals" inhabit in which all "professionals" trade the same direction, in which the massive homogeneous block of "professional" traders can not all be completely wrong?
the world in general .

Think massive moves are caused by one bank out trading another ?

did you ever see my dx posts at 75 saying gu and eu droppage and all were screaming long long long long
NO way is gu ever going back to 1.5300 .... no way will eu drop 1500 pip ?

well look at the bottom of dx weekly and now look at last 3 weeks ...these volume are real volumes. Do pros love buying once price has moved $5 on dx . I doubt it. What I am looking for now in the longer term market is some kind of down move dx , may be into 78 to 77 . I will be looking for low volume down bars on the weekly indicating seller do not have any interest or high volume doji indicating buyers at around 78 to 77. This will take eu into 1.400 to 1.4200

also look at the 2nd charts ... just another way of thinking about it. IS this tankage of eu or some form of retrace of the up move 1.2500 to 1.5500. For those ew traders here it look to me like eu just eneded wave 4 on weekly .... wave 5 could be truncated uinto as high as 1.5000

for now forget news .. forgte Greece riots blah blah blah . I mean wasnt there suppsoed to be martial law in US if things got worse and look .. people still spend money like mad , borrow at low interest rates to buy shit they cannopt afford... yet they talk about high unemployment. In vancouver here they LINE up to buy 600 k houses and they bid them up over asking ..... the joke is if this is recession I cannot wait for the good time to come.

all i know right now is
1) 4 dojis on weekly
2) massive volumes on dx at 80 on 4 weekly dojis
3) 61.8 reatrcement weekly of 2008 up move
4) rounded bottom on daily.

Other than the fact that we have been on down trend since 1.5000 I see NOTHING bearish about daily or weekly charts and in fact could be argues we are forming a very wide uptrending channel with channel top 1.6000 .. sounds insane I know

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,549
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:22am Mar 6, 2010 10:22am
Quoting The Fool
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle7052224.ece

"Viewed from here in Athens, Merkel's attack on the speculators seemed a hollow attempt to give PM Papandreou the support he needs. The advice from some of Merkel's closest advisors that Greece should sell off some of her islands - islands which British and Commonwealth soldiers gave their lives for against Germany in WW2 - has angered the British expat community here in Greece, some of whom are former British soldiers. Such comments have all the hallmarks...
45 % tax cut on the rich .... and what is wrong with that ? Canada's upper tax bracket is that and we have NO issues here. I paid 48 k in taxes last year .. insane bUt happy to do so . Healthcare , schools etc are great In fact Vancouver is rated one of the best places in world to live. Just wish houses here were not so expensive.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,550
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:27am Mar 6, 2010 10:27am
I would not discount the value of VSA. But there is plenty of room for equivocation there - there is no perfect world - not in reality, not in trading. "Professional" money has been, can be, will be wrong. World events can and will upstage the best-laid plans. So watch your back.

I'm still just a scalper, though, so what do I care? Up, down, wtf, I just need movement. Should be good times ahead.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #207,551
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:34am Mar 6, 2010 10:34am
Quoting malcolmb14
45 % tax cut on the rich .... and what is wrong with that ? Canada's upper tax bracket is that and we have NO issues here. I paid 48 k in taxes last year .. insane bUt happy to do so . Healthcare , schools etc are great In fact Vancouver is rated one of the best places in world to live. Just wish houses here were not so expensive.
Yep. If you want to see places where things work well - there is efficient transportation system, health care for everybody, etc - look at places where the rich get taxed. Then look at the USA, where "tax" is a bad word, where the infrastructure is crumbling. oh fuck don't get me started....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #207,552
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:39am Mar 6, 2010 10:39am
Quoting CaShIsKiNg

This is my first post and I am new to this so show mercy.
Ok , can you please post the pic one below the other instead side by side ?
thanks,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #207,553
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:40am Mar 6, 2010 10:40am
Quoting SkyzerFX
DOW will continue to go higher and make new highs.. Not just because

Economy performance, but inflation.. In reality DOW not going

any higher if compared to GOLD (DOW:GOLD ratio), but will make new highs

in therms of $USD.
I agree longer term (such as your USDX to 70) that big time dollar devaluation and inflation are coming......but shorter term I think the USD is higher and a dump in the DOW. As far as Dow/Gold it is headed for 2.5:1 or even 2:1, which certainly doesn't bode well for the DOW, since I don't see gold $5k quite yet. I could see Dow $6k - Gold $2500
  • #207,554
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:55am Mar 6, 2010 10:55am
Quoting fontu
Ok , can you please post the pic one below the other instead side by side ?
thanks,
fontu
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Thoughts?
  • #207,555
  • Mar 6, 2010 11:50am Mar 6, 2010 11:50am
Quoting fontu
Ok , can you please post the pic one below the other instead side by side ?
thanks,
fontu
If I remember right, you were the one who said that if EU could not break 1.5140 level, it was going straight to 1.34. How did you pulled that off? Really impressed.
  • #207,556
  • Mar 6, 2010 11:51am Mar 6, 2010 11:51am
Latest by the ECB president :


ECB's Trichet Fears Systemic Instability Is Underestimated




BERLIN -(Dow Jones)- The systemic instability associated with the dramatic increase in the use of derivative instruments on financial markets may be underestimated, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Saturday in Berlin.
"What I fear is that we are underestimating systemic instability that is associated with those structural transformations," Trichet said, referring to the growth of speculative trading practices, such as derivatives and credit default swaps, over the past decade.
Trichet spoke Saturday at the German president's palace in Berlin, where he sat on a panel with former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.
-By Patrick McGroarty, Dow Jones Newswires; +49 171 97 4803; [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires 03-06-101417ET Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #207,557
  • Mar 6, 2010 11:53am Mar 6, 2010 11:53am
Quoting The Fool
Yep. If you want to see places where things work well - there is efficient transportation system, health care for everybody, etc - look at places where the rich get taxed. Then look at the USA, where "tax" is a bad word, where the infrastructure is crumbling. oh fuck don't get me started....
That is because if you want less of something, you tax it, and if you more of something you subsidize it. So what you end up with is less well off people, and more slugs willing to sit on their ass and let the government do everything for them, which is where we are headed right now. "Spread the wealth".
Infrastructure is crumbling because of total mismanagement of the tax dollars that are collected now, as well as rules and regulations that all public projects must follow........ prevailing wage for example.
  • #207,558
  • Mar 6, 2010 1:03pm Mar 6, 2010 1:03pm
Hello. I think it is possible.

http://img693.imageshack.us/img693/1281/dibujowp.jpg
  • #207,559
  • Mar 6, 2010 1:57pm Mar 6, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting jsspmk
1.4 is not impossible, yet unlikely IMO.
Please elaborate--on the "IMO"
I'm not disputing that it may head south, but 1.4 or even 1.43 is just as likely as 1.23. I try not to trade with a bias, and it really is funny to see so many people around here investing all their energy in predicting the future. I should make just as much whether it heads north, south,or continues to range.

Based on the last few weeks, I'm expecting north. If it heads south I'll sell. If it heads north I'll buy. I would like to know just why you think 1.4 is less likely than 1.23.

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  • #207,560
  • Mar 6, 2010 2:28pm Mar 6, 2010 2:28pm
I wish It was this easy = #118
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