EURUSD | Page 10377 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #207,521
  • Mar 5, 2010 11:23pm Mar 5, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting tano
My view was that DJIA is about to find its top (right now probably it's coming to make double top), oil on dailies possible triple top and all this made perfect sense for EU downtrend continuation with break of 2008 lows, But now I'm confused...

i thought dj was toast for sure ... in Dec / Jan

but look how the down dip has recovered again .

It could be that big shit is coming down the pipe ... but may not be till 2011 before all the lies catch up with them

You know what i find odd .... wow 38 k nfp..a little but better than expected rocketed the market 10 points, BUT the -7.5 % pending home sales , 5 times worse than expected was drop 4 points on es only and that move got eaten up by the buyers. This just goes to show that sometime news is just ignored and we have to follow our charts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #207,522
  • Mar 5, 2010 11:32pm Mar 5, 2010 11:32pm
Quoting malcolmb14
i thought dj was toast for sure ... in Dec...
What I find odd is today's EU behavior. Its daily range is about 120-150 pips even on no-news days, and today on NFP with a surprise number is only 100 pips. Also take into account 120 pts rally in DJIA, c'mon if EU wanted to rally, today was the day. Really something's going on, either massive accumulation is taking place as you say or bulls losing their power.
  • #207,523
  • Mar 6, 2010 12:25am Mar 6, 2010 12:25am
I think EURO is still confused whether to head upwards or downwards.

The BULLISH NFP should be really good for USD, however, the STOCK MARKET gains made it bearish..

EURO should go long now.
  • #207,524
  • Mar 6, 2010 12:30am Mar 6, 2010 12:30am
Quoting PriceVolume
Hey mal - is there any typical pattern from a VSA perspective to distinguish between speculative accumulation and intervention? Just curious....
i personally dont know. but i do know they try to hide whos doing what. many times news reports this one did this or that. but i doubt they really know whos doing what. a few billion dollars by a few hedge funds is not enough to move a 3 trillian dollar a day market with most being on eu. it would take many banks in a conspiracy to truly move the market at the same time. very unlikley. at some point a disgruntel employee would spill the beans. . central banks on the other hand can move markets easily. they can tap the brakes and create a trend. but maybe not forever.

either way ez needs at least 1 of three things for a strong currency. banking like japan or manufacturing or commodities. they dont have much commodities. banking is weak and with recent developments such as dubia greece ect. banking is shaky.. now add in asian competition with loss of market share. look at s korea they gained market share as europe lost in the u.s. .the asian facture is just recently come into the picture for domestic consumption. an aging population and with high social cost will strain euro.
greece is just a small micro-picture of the future. many banks are tied to euro including banks in the u.s. and all over the world. greece has shown a crack in the dam. govs. are tapping the brakes all over the world to prevent a bigger crises then 2008.. they are keeping it quiet so the masses dont panic. if greek citizens storm the banks the snowball starts. those volumes are govs tapping. the ones who keep saying dont bet against greece. the ones who want to investigate the new york "short the euro dinners". you have seen in the last few weeks about goldmen selling greece crap. the same crap they are shorting now.

govs are are tapping on the breaks to prevent a crises. to allow things to happen slowly or maybe stop them or even turn trend around. but they cant stop asia. they only got so many fingers to plug the dam. tick tock
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #207,525
  • Edited 12:54am Mar 6, 2010 12:30am | Edited 12:54am
Strikes are not going to help the Greek economy...raising VAT slows the economy....they raise VAT 2% and how much does the GDP suffer from less spending? How are retired people going to survive with their pension frozen? This is a mess that is far from over.
http://english.cctv.com/program/worl...6/101087.shtml
  • #207,526
  • Mar 6, 2010 12:35am Mar 6, 2010 12:35am
Quoting gatorinla
3622 close. imagine that
it changed i got 3616 now. 3 weeks close below
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #207,527
  • Mar 6, 2010 12:53am Mar 6, 2010 12:53am
Quoting malcolmb14
I do not get it either ..

from a fundies stand points this makes no sense .. none at all.

oil .. well weekly says it all ... massive accumulation at 70 ... this is all starting to make sense on charts ... yet not when thinking about state of economy
What perfect world do the "professionals" inhabit in which all "professionals" trade the same direction, in which the massive homogeneous block of "professional" traders can not all be completely wrong?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #207,528
  • Edited 2:34am Mar 6, 2010 1:35am | Edited 2:34am
Quoting tradedragon
I think EURO is still confused whether to head upwards or downwards.

The BULLISH NFP should be really good for USD, however, the STOCK MARKET gains made it bearish..

EURO should go long now.
No doubt of total confusion last week , breakthrough candle in the south,tristar candle in the south all failed it bring to bull side or a good retracement resulting in only ranges & perfect doji again having big wicks without any decision last week.But market was prevented close decisively below previous weekly close 1.3594 as it will pave the path of confirm buy signal in weekly ahead min 2 weeks of play around the 6th candle where also 1.3594 to 1.3434 range is very important & ultimately to break down for next weekly candle of 8 & 9 , 9 to close below 1.3434 fot the new bull setup if and move around that level to complete 13 countdown ,that is may remain lower side for many weeks to months or next week may close below 1.3434 to have that #13 countdown & cancell new setup & ready to go buy.

Anyway having the bear signal overhead in daily level price can't go/so ready much up , if any will be back again . lower tf all trying hard to bull one after the other can build anything up if favourable though.

I think next week will be most important for the decision making.
fontu
Attached Images
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #207,529
  • Mar 6, 2010 2:12am Mar 6, 2010 2:12am
Quote
I did say one last chart on last post but then I spotted this
1) drop stopped dead on 61.8% of up move
2) wedge in uptrend ....now all i am figuring is does this mean dj moves back to 14400 ? that would be nuts ... but what else would cause the usd to tank ?

wedge in up trends are bullish 90% of the time and continuation patterns

based on 4 doji on weekly , possible wave 4 reatrcement on weekly .... to 1.3500 rsx being them most oversold it has been since 1997 ( this did move up 500 pip then form 4 dojid at top of range beflroe large drop) and...

Superb analysis malcolmb14. You understand and analyse the professional market maker behaviour and thats a leading technical indicator.

E/U 2009 low was aroun 1.24 and high was 1.51. As you rightly said, the move had stopped at 61.8% retracement at 1.34.

Are we looking at continued US dollar bearishness after this retracement?

In that case, our views will be totally changed as E/U will restore its previous uptrend after this retracement and will target new highs of 1.60 in the coming months.

I was thinking to build shorts at 1.39/1.40 but i have to be careful as the present retracement had stopped at exactly at 61.8% in both G/U and E/U.

E/U to 1.60, G/U to 1.70, A/U to 1.00- Could that be the case after this retracement?
  • #207,530
  • Mar 6, 2010 3:46am Mar 6, 2010 3:46am
Quoting malcolmb14

It could be that big shit is coming down the pipe ...

  • #207,531
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:14am Mar 6, 2010 5:14am
hello guys, i think the next week will reach again 3550 and after 3690 and from that the big down move, what do you think malcomb14 and kuroro and other guys. thnx
High risk High return!
  • #207,532
  • Mar 6, 2010 6:11am Mar 6, 2010 6:11am
Quoting simao
hello guys, i think the next week will reach again 3550 and after 3690 and from that the big down move, what do you think malcomb14 and kuroro and other guys. thnx
i`m agree with you buddy
Attached Image
  • #207,533
  • Mar 6, 2010 6:11am Mar 6, 2010 6:11am
Well, I'm short from 136200 ,I placed a limit on 13500, hope to see that fall during next week.

May the force be with us all...
  • #207,534
  • Mar 6, 2010 6:41am Mar 6, 2010 6:41am
Quoting kuroro001
The way i'd like to see it...
After bouncing the buying zone...it'll reach the selling area for a move down to 1.3470...then it'll either bounce or go down towards 1.3400
Or directyl down without any bounce...

Attachment
2 days ago....still in place so we'd better take care
All the vol was only decreasing as we went up....

And we are in the sell zone...i'll close my long monday unless i see a potential of going up toward 1,3680
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #207,535
  • Mar 6, 2010 7:13am Mar 6, 2010 7:13am
Quoting tano
Hey Knuckle
Most likely we are all wrong lol.
I don't know other method to play this market than the trend following. And this puppy now showing all the signs that it wants to reverse big time, hence the most dangerous situation for my kind of trading with potentially big big losses.
As I understand from your post, you play ranges?
GL and happy weekend.

Trend following is best. Sooner or later you need to take profit------So yes when the market ranges I play the range. When it breaks the range I go back to trend following (buying/selling pullbacks). The point to the last post was simple. If anyone is unsure of the market direction "get out" you can always get back in when the market breaks up or down. The only advantage we have over the large market movers is our ability to quit a position. If you can see a range-- trend--- support/resistance, You win. "Take what you can and give nothing back."---Ayyy matey, we be thieve in the night.

You can't be right or profitable all the time. A little paint on the previous chart. Its not a prediction. Its just what I'm watching.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic.1.PNG Size: 40 KB
  • #207,536
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:19am Mar 6, 2010 9:19am
Quoting tano
oil on dailies possible triple top and all this made perfect sense for EU downtrend continuation with break of 2008 lows, But now I'm confused...
"Break of 2008 lows" based on what? Some dreams? Simple answer is this.

NOBODY needs Dollar, when Markets are booming. Dollar= 0% interest

safe haven, when things are totally wrong investors running into Dollar

wait till storm is over. Commodities are booming, Markets are going up,

dollar is toast in those conditions, simple as that. If you betting on EU to

break 2007 lows, I guess you assuming that DOW will go back below 7000.

Sorry, ain't gonna happened. 1.34+ the best you can get, unless markets are

crashed.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #207,537
  • Mar 6, 2010 9:50am Mar 6, 2010 9:50am
Quoting knuckledrag
Trend following is best. Sooner or later you need to take profit------So yes when the market ranges I play the range. When it breaks the range I go back to trend following (buying/selling pullbacks). The point to the last post was simple. If anyone is unsure of the market direction "get out" you can always get back in when the market breaks up or down. The only advantage we have over the large market movers is our ability to quit a position. If you can see a range-- trend--- support/resistance, You win. "Take what you can and give nothing back."---Ayyy...

1.4 is not impossible, yet unlikely IMO.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #207,538
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:05am Mar 6, 2010 10:05am
Quoting SkyzerFX
"Break of 2008 lows" based on what? Some dreams? Simple answer is this.

NOBODY needs Dollar, when Markets are booming. Dollar= 0% interest

safe haven, when things are totally wrong investors running into Dollar

wait till storm is over. Commodities are booming, Markets are going up,

dollar is toast in those conditions, simple as that. If you betting on EU to

break 2007 lows, I guess you assuming that DOW will go back below 7000.

Sorry, ain't gonna happened. 1.34+ the best you can get, unless markets are

crashed.
Nobody can predict future with certainty. Neither you nor I...
Break of 2008 lows is based on the fact that EU is in downtrend, isn't it? Fall from 1.51 to 1.34 can't be considered correction on daily timeframe, isn't it? And objective of any trend is to break any previous lows/highs.

On other hand, you are saying nobody needs dollar when markets are booming, commodities are booming. So you assume that they will continue booming in the near future (6mos-1 yr) so Euro bull can go to 1.5 and higher? Based on what?
  • #207,539
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:17am Mar 6, 2010 10:17am
Quoting SkyzerFX
"Break of 2008 lows" based on what? Some dreams? Simple answer is this.

NOBODY needs Dollar, when Markets are booming. Dollar= 0% interest

safe haven, when things are totally wrong investors running into Dollar

wait till storm is over. Commodities are booming, Markets are going up,

dollar is toast in those conditions, simple as that. If you betting on EU to

break 2007 lows, I guess you assuming that DOW will go back below 7000.

Sorry, ain't gonna happened. 1.34+ the best you can get, unless markets are

crashed.

Yep.......or worse
  • #207,540
  • Mar 6, 2010 10:22am Mar 6, 2010 10:22am
Stock markets need low USD was headline for a while. But USD can rally alongside stock markets, check out USD performance alongside S&P500. In fact USD has put in a higher low on its monthly chart. MACD has also been steadily rising on the monthly chart. US has already upped the discount rate, maybe higher interest rates are on the horizon for USD. To say Euro has bottomed can be relevant to perhaps a daily chart & below, main trend is down and pullbacks will be sold.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
520 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
aaa88