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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #15,101
  • Mar 4, 2010 6:49pm Mar 4, 2010 6:49pm
I'm shorting it. My projection tells me it's gonna start falling sometime tonight (EST) and through to early Monday. I'm considering the signal valid as long as the price action is contained within the immediate resistance level of 89.77.

My support targets are: 88.83, 88.29.


-Marko
  • #15,102
  • Mar 4, 2010 7:44pm Mar 4, 2010 7:44pm
If we break above 89.40, rsi will rise and likley invalidate my RSI trade. If so, I will cut it loose. Will look to a higher place to short, probably 89.60-89.70 range if possible.
  • #15,103
  • Mar 4, 2010 7:50pm Mar 4, 2010 7:50pm
Does anyone know where all this up pressure is comming from on UJ? All the other majors are just puttering around, waiting on NFP i guess. Seems this pair has a mind of it's own.
  • #15,104
  • Mar 4, 2010 8:00pm Mar 4, 2010 8:00pm
move was quick this morning. And I closed out for 65 pips. It is close to weekend and now I just wanna relax and stay out. Atleat try stay out I love this pair.

Quoting 5abi
I entered long this pair at 8846. This is a small position- mainly took it because there is huge divergence on the H4 timeframe- no stop and target around 8950.
Its all in the mind.
  • #15,105
  • Mar 4, 2010 8:02pm Mar 4, 2010 8:02pm
I was just browsing web and read somewhere that there are JPY sell off due to increased QE by BOJ.

Quoting FX-Petra
Does anyone know where all this up pressure is comming from on UJ? All the other majors are just puttering around, waiting on NFP i guess. Seems this pair has a mind of it's own.
Its all in the mind.
  • #15,106
  • Mar 4, 2010 8:37pm Mar 4, 2010 8:37pm
RSI scalp trade short @ 89.28... only going to hold for 89.10 instead of 89.00. Stop now moved to BE + 1. I'll wake up in the morning and see what happend! Perhaps there will be a good setup an hour or so after NFP. Good night and good trades.

Regards,
  • #15,107
  • Mar 4, 2010 8:38pm Mar 4, 2010 8:38pm
No. BOJ is merely considering easing...and if there is one thing that BOJ loves, it's rumous to get Yen dropping again. Japans needs its exports - badly.

-Marko

Quoting 5abi
I was just browsing web and read somewhere that there are JPY sell off due to increased QE by BOJ.
  • #15,108
  • Mar 4, 2010 8:39pm Mar 4, 2010 8:39pm
Key Outside Reversal Day, wait for the pullback and long off a smaller timeframe reversal pattern.

fwiw
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  • #15,109
  • Mar 4, 2010 10:32pm Mar 4, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting auxesis
Key Outside Reversal Day, wait for the pullback and long off a smaller timeframe reversal pattern.
same thoughts here.

also , as ichimoku novice, ... the price had moved out of the cloud in the ichimoku chart .. indicates bullishness ... need confirmation from ichimoku experts ...
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  • #15,110
  • Mar 4, 2010 10:41pm Mar 4, 2010 10:41pm
on the daily , the potential is till it meets resistance at the cloud .. about 100-150 pips ... by ichimoku novice
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  • #15,111
  • Mar 4, 2010 10:53pm Mar 4, 2010 10:53pm
ichimoku slapped on mainstream TA
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  • #15,112
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:19am Mar 5, 2010 12:19am
Strong bounce off inverted head and shoulders today.
Strong price action - NFP on the horizon.
  • #15,113
  • Mar 5, 2010 8:12am Mar 5, 2010 8:12am
Considering taking a week or so off. Every trade on this pair is 1 step forward and 1 step back. I still believe we will go down, but the route we take to get there is really just a guess at this point. I am already using pretty low risk... but I guess it should be even lower. Good trades to all.
  • #15,114
  • Mar 5, 2010 8:25am Mar 5, 2010 8:25am
the unemployment rate for US is in a green number, and the USD/JPY is moving like my prediction. hopefully it will move more further.
  • #15,115
  • Mar 5, 2010 9:00am Mar 5, 2010 9:00am
Short on USDJPY before and after NFP news...let's wait & see
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #15,116
  • Mar 5, 2010 9:50am Mar 5, 2010 9:50am
just logged in ... missed the scalp !

looks like it has met its resistance .... drift down .... ?

chart looks like its ranging between fibo 76.4 and 38.2 ..
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  • #15,117
  • Edited 10:45am Mar 5, 2010 9:59am | Edited 10:45am
if tenkan(red) and kijun(blue) cross , we might have a downtrend ... if they never meet then the bullishness might continue ...or play range

bear in mind the heavy cloud resistance in the daily chart ...

(by a ichimoku novice)
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  • #15,118
  • Mar 5, 2010 10:49am Mar 5, 2010 10:49am
Quoting TheArcher
if tenkan(red) and kijun(blue) cross , we might have a downtrend ... if they never meet the bullishness might continue ...or play range

bear in mind the heavy cloud resistance in the daily chart ...

(by a ichimoku novice)
4H chart shows it will be uptrend for next week as I play it safely with 4h chart. Correct me if I am wrong. Ichimoku is new to me. I am going to study it somewhere.
  • #15,119
  • Mar 5, 2010 8:44pm Mar 5, 2010 8:44pm
nice week end i got 112 pips profit. next week i do believe that the US still unpredictable, many trader predict the US unemployment rate is going to close near to 10% again. and when the time is come the number is 9.7 a green number for me. but next week. i dont know if the economic parameter of US wiil be good or bad. so i was very carefull about this pair. but i do believe for long term trading this pair will goes up 93.00 or 95.00.
  • #15,120
  • Edited 11:24pm Mar 5, 2010 11:10pm | Edited 11:24pm
Quoting DeafPipster
4H chart shows it will be uptrend for next week as I play it safely with 4h chart. Correct me if I am wrong. Ichimoku is new to me. I am going to study it somewhere.
ichimoku is new to me too.

in the 4hr chart ....the price is in the cloud .. hence in the trendless mode

tenkan(red) and kijun(blue) crossed below the cloud ... hence a weak crossing

hence don't think it will be uptrend yet as per current 4hr chart ...

the price needs to clear out of the cloud upwards with the crossing of the red and blue outside the cloud upwards ...

take note of also the daily chart where there is a huge cloud offering resistance ...

at best ... if it decides to play trendless within the cloud .. the cloud might act like the bollinger band if the resistance is met and price bounces back and forth within the cloud

.. good luck with ur Ichimoku study

but first u must develop/have a strong grounding with the basic TA ... ichimoku will supplement and complement and enhance ur analysis ...

case in point , what if the price chart turns into a bull flag ... ?
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