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HA T3-1 System

  • #1,021
  • Mar 3, 2010 10:16am Mar 3, 2010 10:16am
Hey everyone,

I've been following this thread for a while and I figured that I would finally get my feet wet. Here is my first screen shot. I realize that the Trend Lord bars are small but hey, you've got to start somewhere right??!! I placed my stop @ 1.4120 because a 30 pip stop would have been right at the figure.

Michael
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad m30 03 03 2010.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #1,022
  • Mar 3, 2010 10:56am Mar 3, 2010 10:56am
I guess I should have paid more attention to the small Trend Lord bars. Stopped out LoL!!!
  • #1,023
  • Mar 3, 2010 10:57am Mar 3, 2010 10:57am
Quoting MichaelLee_8
Hey everyone,

I've been following this thread for a while and I figured that I would finally get my feet wet. Here is my first screen shot. I realize that the Trend Lord bars are small but hey, you've got to start somewhere right??!! I placed my stop @ 1.4120 because a 30 pip stop would have been right at the figure.

Michael
It's not a strict rule but most uf us prefer enter a trade when the 4h candle is closed and there is still the signal .
  • #1,024
  • Edited 12:42pm Mar 3, 2010 12:09pm | Edited 12:42pm
Quoting Xhandal
It's not a strict rule but most uf us prefer enter a trade when the 4h candle is closed and there is still the signal .
The matter is that if we try to trade the first retracement after the first signal then it usually ends at the next H4 candle or even later.
The main thing is patience. Like with staying in the trade - there are so many temptations to close trades too early. When trading from H4 chart, it is very dangerous because potential wins have to cover the inevitable losses. And this could be done only with good trade management.
I have not mastered it yet myself. At least not satisfied with my behaviour in many cases.
  • #1,025
  • Mar 3, 2010 12:21pm Mar 3, 2010 12:21pm
Looking back at it now I really think I should have passed on the trade. The Trend Lord bars were still red but really small. I have been avoiding the all of the Yen pairs because of that very fact but for some reason I felt an obligation to trade. Sitting on my hands now. I think we will see something break with the ECB and NFP coming out. The current market is slow enough to make you go insane!!!

Michael
  • #1,026
  • Mar 3, 2010 6:47pm Mar 3, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting MichaelLee_8
[...] but for some reason I felt an obligation to trade. Sitting on my hands now. [...]

Michael
Hi Michael,

I totally understand that urge to jump in, especially when wanting to try a new system/setup that looks promising. Being trigger-happy has left me with many poor positions myself.



It is important to understand what -- beyond a reliable system and trading plan -- your edge as an individual speculator is. In my view, it is timing.

  1. Large corporations that participate in the forex market do so when they need to get foreign currency for their transactions. That could be airlines locking in the price of fuel, ex-/importers hedging against fluctuations to lock in their bottom line profits, a company conducting an M&A outside their own country (think Prudential UK acquiring AIG Asia as a recent example), and many more scenarios. They are bound by the business cycle and have minimal control about timing. Because of the very nature and purpose of their hedging, they cannot avoid fluctuations that go against them.
  2. Banks processing transactions for their clients (above) must trade when the order comes in, and are bound to the trading session for where they conduct business.
  3. Banks and hedge funds trading for their own speculation are moving huge funds and place orders big enough to influence rates. They must look for times with high volume to absorb their order smoothly, or -- if they are hunting stops etc. -- wait for a lull in volume to surprise a dormant market (that apparently happens a lot towards the end of the New York session, before Tokyo opens).

As an individual you are of course limited by where you live and when you sleep, plus whether or not you can afford to watch your screens constantly through the day or not. All of those, however, are known in advance an can be incorporated into your trading strategy.

So an important edge of the individual trader is the liberty to decide when to trade and when to stay out. That is true for deciding whether or not to trade today, which session to pick, which pair to watch, and whether or not to take a signal. And, that ability to be selective of course applies not only to entries but also to exits.

In business school you are guaranteed to hear this Peter Drucker quote when taking a class on strategy: "Strategy is foremost about deciding what not to do."

Well said.

Jesper

  • #1,027
  • Mar 3, 2010 6:52pm Mar 3, 2010 6:52pm
Thank you for the info about explorer.
  • #1,028
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:33am Mar 4, 2010 3:33am
Hi! Tony, how you treat to automated trading (or semi-automated)?

I have some programmer skills and i think i can create a exp.advisor by this system.. What do u say about that?

By the way, thx for sharing

Best regards, Noisee.
  • #1,029
  • Mar 4, 2010 7:22am Mar 4, 2010 7:22am
Quoting jesperweber
Hi Michael,

I totally understand that urge to jump in, especially when wanting to try a new system/setup that looks promising. Being trigger-happy has left me with many poor positions myself........
Thanks for the kind words Jesper! I totally agree with everything you said. I believe one of the most difficult attributes traders have to face is the ability to be critical on ones self. I've always tried to look back at my most recent trades and ask myself what I did right, and more importantly, what I did wrong. I like to write my comments down because I can go back to them later down the road and see what I had to say about my own trading. Hence, my recent post (#1025). If you can't be critical of your self, who can you be critical of??

Michael
  • #1,030
  • Mar 4, 2010 7:30am Mar 4, 2010 7:30am
Quoting Xhandal
It's not a strict rule but most uf us prefer enter a trade when the 4h candle is closed and there is still the signal .
How many people trading this system prefer to wait? I can see the logic behind it. Just wondering. Doesn't Tony mark the alert price on the chart and then use discretion based on price action, indicators, etc?

Michael
  • #1,031
  • Mar 4, 2010 8:13am Mar 4, 2010 8:13am
Quoting MichaelLee_8
How many people trading this system prefer to wait? I can see the logic behind it. Just wondering. Doesn't Tony mark the alert price on the chart and then use discretion based on price action, indicators, etc?

Michael
I do not wait for the 4h candle close (neither does Tony). I do however wait for the 30min candle close and buy or sell one pip above/below that one. It filters out some bad trades and this way I only check out my pc every half hour.
  • #1,032
  • Mar 4, 2010 11:21am Mar 4, 2010 11:21am
I already asked once, and will ask once again, because this is not discussed and it should be for a good strategy. My question is how many bad trades do you normally get, how often, etc.?
  • #1,033
  • Mar 4, 2010 12:50pm Mar 4, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting Noisee
Hi! Tony, how you treat to automated trading (or semi-automated)?

I have some programmer skills and i think i can create a exp.advisor by this system.. What do u say about that?

By the way, thx for sharing

Best regards, Noisee.

Sounds like a great idea for us newbies who are easily confused with checking out more than a single TF. Also having 2 different Rules for each of them.
Thanks for the thought.
  • #1,034
  • Mar 4, 2010 3:26pm Mar 4, 2010 3:26pm
I came across this discussion of price action that helped me organize some of the thought streams in my head. It was useful for me and i hope it can be to others too. I apologize if the OP does not want this here and will be happy to remove it should he choose so.

http://www.forextraders.com/forex-an...he-market.html

Edit: the idea of "flags" he discusses was one of the higher ranking points i took away from his.
Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.
  • #1,035
  • Mar 4, 2010 5:14pm Mar 4, 2010 5:14pm
I closed the majority of the AUD trade above (#1014). Still have a small position open from the original entry. I never really loved the entry.

Here is a new entry in the NZD. Like the AUD, I plan to have a short leash as the signal off the 4H is not optimal from my perspective.

Here is also the CADJPY. I have been watching this pair for awhile now, and it took a long time for the entry signals to line up.
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  • #1,036
  • Mar 4, 2010 9:53pm Mar 4, 2010 9:53pm
Quoting wickar
Sounds like a great idea for us newbies who are easily confused with checking out more than a single TF. Also having 2 different Rules for each of them.
Thanks for the thought.
With respect, I disagree with you. Automated trading with expert advisors is not for newbies, but for experienced traders.

When you leave trade decisions to an expert advisor, you should fully understand the logic behind it -- understand and endorse it. If you are insecure about it, there is a high risk of fiddling with trades the EA took, just as with manual trades, because of fear and greed kicking in: locking in profits manually out of fear to give them back, which takes out trades before they reach their full potential and thus skewing the risk-reward ratio against you by only letting the losses run, etc. etc.

Automated trading should be attempted only when you have sufficient understanding of the underlying logic to configure the EA parameters for entry, stops and targets; in other words, you make the trade decision, the EA only takes over the execution. Based on your own market insight you should also be able to decide whether to have the EA trade in both directions, or long or short only (or at all, if the pair seems to be ranging).

If checking two timeframes per pair with slightly different indicators seems confusing to you, then I dare to say you are not ready for automated trading. It will be a short-cut, but only to quicker losses.

Think about it: multiple-timeframe trading is actually super-conservative. You are not jumping into a new trend right-away (as you would have to when trading only one timeframe), but actually wait for the first retrace/pullback to shake out positions that had been on the wrong side, then enter when the trend is confirmed and ready to run with no old positions holding it back. Entering on the faster timeframe may appear aggressive, but you are actually just looking for high-probability entries into and conservative exits out of the higher-timeframe trend.

Everybody call me a snob if you like to, but the above paragraph to me is the essence and edge of MTF trading, as close to the Holy Grail as I ever hope to get. Master that first, then move on to the next step where you can leave execution to a machine.

With proper experience and knowledge an EA can be a fine tool; without it, it is just a black box.

The above is my personal opinion only and meant as a constructive contribution (please boo me silently ). You may have guessed, I have burned my fingers with EAs before, so I am veeerrry cautious about them.

Jesper
  • #1,037
  • Mar 4, 2010 10:50pm Mar 4, 2010 10:50pm
Hi Tony-
If you don't have any reservations, can you please post the mq4 files for TrendLord and W-LNX.

Thank you very much and best regards

- Sean
  • #1,038
  • Mar 5, 2010 2:11am Mar 5, 2010 2:11am
Quoting krly
Living on the West coast (CALIF) and working for a living makes for some really terrible trading hours.....Any tips as to how this system could be traded on an "end-of-day" basis. I.e. looking at the market between 2pm-6pm PST (GMT 10pm-2am) and not having to get up in the middle of the night ?
Thanks.........krly
I feel your pain. As a west coast trader your(we) limited to the Sydney/Tokyo session which normally just ranges. I've been stuck in these trades for hours only to be stopped out when London opens.

Its not feasible to be up all night trading the London nor be up at 5am half asleep trying to trade the NY session before work. You make a lot of mistakes cause your tired and stressed on making a trade before you leave to the office.

Your solution in my opinion is to trade the daily charts of commodities like grains, meats, metals, currency. You could intra-day trade; bonds, ES, Russel 2k, but again its up at 5am minim.

I found only one way to trade forex and it has the worst Risk/Reward ratio: the breakout of the Asia/Au session. You get up at 11:45 draw your box's or lines place trades go to bed. Get up to pee go check chart and see if your up or down money. Sometimes I'm down 40 pips and I go back to bed only to get up at 6am for work and I've got 20pips locked in.
This works well in trending markets trading in that trend but not sideways.

Using Toney's system you could set up the alerts on a 4h chart and have it text your phone. But again your getting up, your tired, not thinking clear and looking for an entry. This is where mistakes happen.

If any west coast trader out there has an answer to this problem that does not involve moving to NY I'd love to hear it.
Good luck
  • #1,039
  • Mar 5, 2010 2:12am Mar 5, 2010 2:12am
Quoting jesperweber
With respect, I disagree with you. Automated trading with expert advisors is not for newbies, but for experienced traders.

When you leave trade decisions to an expert advisor, you should fully understand the logic behind it -- understand and endorse it. If you are insecure about it, there is a high risk of fiddling with trades the EA took, just as with manual trades, because of fear and greed kicking in: locking in profits manually out of fear to give them back, which takes out trades before they reach their full potential and thus skewing the...
no boo's, I TOTALLY confirm and agree, based on personal, painful, experience.
  • #1,040
  • Mar 5, 2010 11:17am Mar 5, 2010 11:17am
Quick update on the charts posted in #1035.

NZDUSD -- price moved against and the trade was stopped out. Fortunately price moved far enough initially to allow the stop to be moved down which mitigated the damage.

CADJPY -- turned into a nice trade. I closed it out because its Friday.

One additional note -- the 30m charts can often produce good signals by themselves, especially in the areas where price hits a low on the TLord, then switches color, around the time the AO flips up (for longs). See boxes on charts. No guarantees of course, but these areas are frequently the start of a new trend.

Have a good weekend all.
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