EURUSD

This not only displays intelligence, more importantly, it is a display of wisdom..

At this particular point in time, I cannot see how the Euro has a fundimental advantage over the dollar. If reckless deficit spending hasn't brought about 1.6 during the last wave, it won't.. It's going down..

Short term trading, we may see another push to 1.37.. The last one was pretty strong.. Somebody wanted it badly..

Perhaps we can't judge their bets if actually are.They if short then equal amounts in long too to make it hedge and if weight changes anyside they can take extra bet to cash only profits & perhaps never to loose. their equity may not fall to stopout virtually ever.No idea though how these big money being played.

Anyway if eu even fall to 1.2680 break to 1.1638 it will still bullish in nature & very big up movements will start but if fall below this last level perhaps near zero.
One thing I believe , all those bailout will never work for a solution , if countries or a community is actually enjoying a freedom status it to do maintain by itself,no zone,no friends,no allies but if make such things no freedom can a warrenty soon.
again who will bailout the whole world,or even each & every person ?

fontu

It seems that everybody agrees on the long term bearish trend (D1 200 SMA dropping, hedge funds selling EURO, economic differential in favor of US, bearish Elliot Wave started on Nov 26 2009, several detailed analysis, such as clc4x above).

The question is about next week's kick off: will the bears have their Stop Losses executed? Will the market retrace in order to short from higher prices, thus making even larger gains with next dip?

Friday 26 was the last day of a profitable stock market and world's passive funds sold dollars in order to cash the gains, larger than in the European exchanges. Also gains from pure shorting EURUSD needed to be cashed. This gives a one day bias, not indicative. The strong resistance 1.3693 was not broken, and the closing buys had thight stops at 1.3700.

The correlation with GBPUSD, usually very close to +1 has dropped on all time frames on Thursday and Friday, with Cable oversold and EURUSD overbought with respect to the long run relation. If the error must be corrected, and since it is very unlikely that the Cable will recover at the beginning of the week, it shall be the EURUSD to step down (of a great amount, since the deviation from the relation is large).

The leg 3 of the Elliot Wave is usually longer and their riders do not look satisfied yet, a condition required for the leg 4 correction. At the beginning of February we already saw several resistances broken, but there was no real interest in following the momentum.

What would thus be the real reason to retrace next week? The US's consumer spending release is not a strong factor. Only a good news on Eurostat's European unemployment could give a boost to the Euro. Most probably depends on the reaction of markets to the plan to help Greece. Is the wording of the news strong enough? It seems clarity is missing on timing and effectiveness. It seems only a "you will not be left alone" message. The size of the bailout is unknown. Is the announced Greek austerity credible? Concerns remain on all other weak Euro countries. Thus, it is too early to assess whether fundamentals of Euro will be strong.

Up to know the hypothesis of a stronger Euro on Dollar seems rejected, unless specific institution build momentum which is followed by market partecipants. The 4H bullish breakout is not uncommon in bearish trends, well justified by the last day of the month's activity and does not seem supported by any other fundamentals. The resistance at 1.3872 is far away and needs strong reasons to be reached. Pure speculation in a strongly bearish trend seems very risky, against many institutions' position and without push. Can the only reason for an upside be the lack of recent drops?

from my very simple perspective...

1. supposedly hedge funds are as short as they have ever been....
2. every second-rate analyst this week-end and last week-end has written an article about their long-term "bearish" stance on the euro

We are probably near a bottom.
Just my opinion, be gentle.

Don't need to be an investor to know that. The days of profiting from selling the USD are over. 9 years of this crap. Getting out of this crisis will be painful, but worth it.

Thanks malcolmb for great information.just checking weekly chart after seeing this post.

There is possible a Bullish Tri Star
• Direction: Bullish
• Type: Reversal
• Reliability: Moderate

4th candle can a big up , seeing next support weekly 1.3896 , am afraid it.

As per TD counts , already waiting for the last buy countdown 13# & to accomplish this confirm buy signal next weekly or so to complete successfully at or below 1.3594 close , one singlemost key level may be not for next week but may 3 or more weeks to come.because if the next candle is bullish big may not close below the keylevel within this week ( very likely as lower tf analysis ) & by this time actually an another buy set up developing now most important #6. so if there is no quick weekly close below 1.3594 & resume bull there chances that price will hover around this keylevel & below within this 6 candle low ,1.3450 for at least 3 more weeks & must break below this low & close.,that is the bear to nourish enough before even thinking it kill .
so result is wherever it can go, will back to test 1.3594 to low as far as 1.3450 within & ultimately more down for all bullish scenerio to continue.Just analysis with not any future teller though. we will follow the market as it move any.
fontu

It's in your 1 hour and 4 hr charts.

do you have a chart to see how it set for the low this week ,please!eu should correlate to it .
thanks,
fontu

I posted my forecast on the wrong forum

Here we go:

Looking at the time spread for the main waves there are 2 groups of time which for now can be used for our analysis. First group is the 80-83 range and the second group is 100-110 range.

Wave 4/X has to fall within one of the time groups for now. The location where the drop from 4026 has finished in terms of its elliot wave count is not clear at the moment (either 3577 or 3559).

For now a high probability is 3577, and for fibonacci reasons mentioned later I am picking that spot. but I have included 3535 as a place to measure time too.

The time from either red lines to present does not fall within either groups of time measured (80 & 100). If we extend the time to the blue line which is around March 2nd 00:00 GMT then wave 4/X is done and the time from either of the red lines will group nicely with the other waves. In this case we probably will have a major thrust starting at that time.

Now whether a new high is going to be made or just range bound motion between 3680 and 3580, its still questionable. But even if a new high is going to be made its just going to be a better setup for a sell.

Looking at the resistance levels, we see that the 3680-3690 levels have held pretty solid. Interestingly enough we have 2 fiboancci levels that are worth paying attention:

23.6 of 4525-3585 = 3685
AND
23.6 of 4578-3443 = 3711

Very very close levels to each other. Double fibonacci overlap combined with a behaviour showing the resistance of the EUR to penetrate this level, is a good reason to consider this area a high probability sell zone and also be very very carefull on thinking that EUR will slice these level and go higher up.

So now we know that there is a little bit more time that has to pass before we see a considerable thrust downwards. So what will the EUR do on Monday March 1st?

There are 2 scenarios here, personally I believe the first scenario will happen.

Scenraio 1:

A contracting triangle will form between 3540 and 3680. This contracting triangle will finish by the end of the japaneese session and on Tuesday at the beginning of the EUR session we will start to see a thrust downwards that will be very powerfull and huge. In a contracting triangles retracements are usually around the 80-95% zone, 38.2 and 61.8 as mentioned in the books dont work. In this case look for 3670 to go short, and set your stoploss at 3715. Choose your lot size appropriately, but its a good idea to go with minimum lot at 3670 and then add more lots at 3660-3650 when the triangle is close to its ending.

Scenario 2:

A new high of 3711 will be made and after that a thrust downwards will start. What kind of formation is suitable for 3711? I am not quite sure of that, because there are too many possibilities

The reason that I am choosing scenario 1 is that when a contracting triangle forms Wave A is the most violent move, and the thrust of the triangle is opposite to wave A. If you have a mediocare move as Wave A and you think you have a contracting triangle with your wave counts, then you are wrong and your wave A is probably part of a flat formation.

Another point to note is this:

The retracement level of the drop from 5145-4213 was a 38.2 retracement, usually wave 4 will retrace:
1-(the level of retracement of wave 2). So that would be 1-0.382=0.618.
So lets say roughly speaking anywhere in between 0.5-0.618 we should have seen the top of retracement from 3544. That means that we should have seen 3690 be broken very easily by now. It didnt got broken very easily.

As a matter of fact the level of retracement was around 23.6.
The lower a fibonacci retracement, the more desire is in the market to continue with the given trend. The 23.6 fibonacci retracement can only mean the market is more eager than when it was at 4578 to continue and accelerate downwards.

Anything higher than 3711 stay out of the market, because 3711 is the limit for the above scenario. I dont recommend a buy, and my strategy is to wait for a sell, thats the main trend on the daily chart.

Good Luck With This Information.

"Anything higher than 3711 stay out of the market"

Can you explain why?

Because we might go higher, and I dont know how high yet, but would not be a suitable sell scenario. In that case 3750-3780 zone might be reached.

..bear take a rest next week

but anythings higher than 1.37...welcome back 1.4..simple...

this reversal candle cluster at 62% retrace support suggests to me 1.40 is next target. What happens to the bulls from there will determine the fate of the EURO

yup noticed that...

I did mentioned in my last 2 week post in Friday b4 market close with small argument during that session..

Only gold & UJ have not reach my TP4 where show some weakness in USD last week.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=199431
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=199458

The rest..em em ..

Let c what happen next..

g

Great calls, you were really ahead of the curve, I take my hat off to you

..my magic s/r dotted line vs volume always help me to be more flexible and smell some PA movement/reversal trend...but i missed on GY be honest.

anyway catch u later mate...am going to have shopping afterward..

Happy Weekend and take care ya



g

But doesn't it make you wonder why they are putting this information out there in the public domain?

George Soros said a few weeks ago in an interview in Davos that gold was in a bubble yet it has been reported that he has actually doubled his gold holdings.

does anyone know what euro is trading @now ?

3618 on my esignal feed.

They going to lose big, unless stop losses are SET above 1.43. You think

they going to risk 10 billion $ with 700 pips stop loss? Who knows, if they

are crazy enough, but if SL going to be hit, then we might see lots of

"happy" hedge fund manager jumpers off skyscrapers without the parachute.