EURUSD

I went back in the charts to look for a time when we had weekly dojo x three
on the charts and we has a continuation of the downtrend . This has never happened . So on this note I am aiming for 1.4000 to 1.4100 over the next 4 weeks . Next week is deciding week for Greece so the move could be rapid

I have updated my USD Index analysis: USD Index – Market Analysis and Trading Plan (27 Feb 2010)

Please comment as I am still improving my technical analysis

Thanks

update 1 : German official denies report on aid for Greece

The senior German official, who declined to be named, said there was no such agreement. "No, this report is nonsense," the official said.
However, a German parliamentary source told Reuters that the government was quietly preparing emergency budget provisions for possible aid to Greece. The finance ministry denied this.

reuters 27 feb. 2009

Thanks , I wanted to buy this trade too but it may be too late when I will start to check charts after the market open next day night.at least 2 h4 candle will form by that time. And also did not place pendings last min friday.Anyway lets see what actually happen , lower tf also can do any thing against H4 .
fontu

We should watch CHINA's PMI tonight for clues whether manufacturing went up in February.

Then we would be able to guess USA ISM on Monday. Most probably, ISM is going to be green.

If ISM is good, USD will weaken.

very good analysis on the usdollar and the techanical is good may be as good as any professional but how could you trade with the analysis is not very well represented .

[quote=malcolmb14;3504623] Couldnt agree more with the accumulation!

Thank you, answered a question I had earlier

not one mention of this on any news channel

surely a bank failure that cost the broke FDIC (mainly being supported by the feds which in turn are being supported by the tax payers) 100 mill would be worthy of a mention

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rai...0-02-27/quotes

in top of this aig losses and the fact that AIG ' only ' lost 6.4 billion

I cracked up when I read the headline that ONLY lost in it.... and then 6,4 billion this quarter

Please say a prayer and hope that all of our friends in South America and Chile in particular are all of after the devestating 8.8 earthquake they have suffered. The centre of the quake in Concepcion is devasted and their is much damage in Santiago.

We have a Tsunami warning here in NZ and the water levels on te East Coast have dropped significantly.....all the ports have put as many ships to sea as possible. There will be nothing much happening here, but it's amazing how many idiots have gone down to the beach to watch

My hopes and prayers go to all those who are in this mess, and I hope all our friends here at FF are safe.....

then most on FF here. Looking at the weekly and the monthly, we have broke through major areas of previous support. On the monthly and the weekly, 3560 area was a major resistance that when hit, sent the pair nose diving. Fundamentally we are in a very similar boat as in 2008. Wall street is now finally coming to realise that the reccession is not over, and that we are still in very bad shape. That is according to the last few weeks of data reports. There is no such thing as a jobless recovery. America relies on spending to flourish. No jobs, no spending. In addition, Europe's problems are coming into light more and more each day, and Britian is just as bad. China will be next with it's asset bubble, and whola, back were we started in 2008. Added to the fact that a new monthly bar will be opening below the middle bollinger band which is realy just a simple moving average. I still see the 1.28ish area before we see 1.5 for the simple reason of the conditions present are the same as when we had the flight to dollar safety back in 2008. Have a good trading week.

To sum it up. The faster Wall street comes back to the real world of main street, the faster we can begin a real recovery for everyone, and not just the bank executives.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...010521126.html

right on time.

Its too late

"A secretive group of Wall Street hedge fund bosses are said to be behind a plot to cash in on the decline of the euro".

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worl...-hit-euro.html

yikes. Soros looks like a crazed Elmer Fudd. I bet he gets dat wascally wabbit this time. I mean yoowow.

A Foolish reply to a serious post.

Thanks for your feedback.

This has been common knowledge by pros for 2 weeks now ...look ow euro has been accumulated heavy . I mentioned it last weekend in a bunch of posts and now mention it again this weekend. Volumes never lie...

In fact this could go all the way back to 1.5000 before any other issues surface. Sure all other euro countries have issues .. ut so does the us and look DJ holding 10000 pretty nicely.

Recent article on Euro:
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/2010022...e-972e412.html


WASHINGTON (AFP) - – Several hedge funds have placed big bearish bets against the euro, with some speculating the single European unit will fall to parity with the dollar, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
The euro, which traded at 1.51 dollars in December, was hovering at 1.3596 dollars in early London trade Friday with sentiment for it recently dampened largely by the debt crisis centering around Greece.
The Journal said the large bets against the euro emerged following an exclusive "idea dinner" earlier this month that included hedge-fund titans SAC Capital Advisors LP and Soros Fund Management LLC.
During the dinner, hosted by a boutique investment bank at a private townhouse in Manhattan, a small group of all-star hedge fund managers argued that the euro is likely to fall to equal on an exchange basis with the dollar, the newspaper quoted people close to the situation as saying.
The paper said the elite traders' bearish bets, reminiscent of the trading action at the height of the US financial crisis, had added to the selling pressure on the currency, and to the pressure on the European Union to stem the Greek debt crisis.
The US crisis, which shook the foundation of the financial industry and plunged the world's largest economy into its worst recession in decades, hit peak levels in late 2008 with the collapse of giant investment bank Lehman Brothers.
At that time major hedge fund managers, such as Greenlight Capital chief David Einhorn, who also was at this month's euro-dominated dinner, determined that the fortunes of Lehman and other firms were dim and bet heavily against their securities, accelerating their fall, the Journal said.
"This is an opportunity... to make a lot of money," the Journal quoted Hans Hufschmid, a former senior Salomon Brothers executive who now runs GlobeOp Financial Services SA, as saying.
GlobeOp is a hedge fund administrator in London and New York.
An SAC manager, Aaron Cowen, who pitched the group on the bearish bet, said he viewed all possible outcomes relating to the Greek debt crisis as negative for the euro, people familiar with the matter said, according to the Journal.
SAC's trading position on the euro is unclear.
George Soros, head of his 27 billion dollar asset fund, warned last weekend that if the EU did not fix its finances, "the euro may fall apart."

I think they are going to make a wrong bet.

It's time for the rest of the world to make money from these hedgefunds who may just lose their bets.

For one.

EURO is going to outperform the USD in the long run.

The greece bail out is more or less stable, now that the Germans agree to buy some of the bonds.

The Bond yield should be high enough to attract buyers.

The US Stock market is going to rally, and this will weaken the USD.
The EURO is going upwards from here. It is now forming an inverse head and shoulder pattern.

1.38 is in sight, and we shall see if it goes to 1.5

Monday, EURO should rally as the greece bail out issue will help it alot.