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AUD/USD

  • #17,841
  • Feb 26, 2010 10:44pm Feb 26, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting Clouds
I swear -Sinner, I think u want the dollar to fall, u have hidden agenda
Just not willing to discount the possibility that all this current fear is manufactured before the "inflation" leg up. The Fed doesn't want a stronger dollar, basically the only way bears will make money in this environment is to bet that events will move beyond the Feds control again. That is a big bet right now. The current declines in EUR and GBP have nothing to do with the USD aside from monetary aggregates that take months to play out.

Let's face it. The DX chart is no longer bullish on any timeframe, and it won't be without a test of support - which is a lot lower right now.

But frankly, I don't care whether the dollar falls or rises. I just need the price to keep moving strongly intraday, as that is how I make money.

Spent the week buying SPX 990 puts (April expiry) and chasing intraday momentum on GBPUSD. No complaints from me in the P/L department.
  • #17,842
  • Edited 10:44am Feb 27, 2010 5:21am | Edited 10:44am
Quoting doblece
http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm

Here's what I see in H4:

Attachment

A closer view:

Attachment

Note to Clouds: this is a "short term" of about 1 month scope outlook.

Note to all: but... I would be very cautious about a heavy bull trap deliberately being built (last friday and today PA showed me a series of very precise and well calculated moves). Until this week, everyone and his dog was bearish (even myself!). Now the sentiment seems to be slowly turning... and as soon as...
Hi. On 3rd chart, look at when it was at .93 and the consolidation area, when it broke support, it went down and came up and tested this area before going down. Right now, I see .8970 as that same area. I would be a little confused if .8970 didn't hold. I don't really think in % , and I while having some trades in long-term position trades helps me sleep at night, I also like trading for 100-150 pip TP on other pairs,, like eur/aud. Regarding risk, stops just above resistance/support or even B/E stops save me from my mistakes. My focus is on aud/usd, usd/cad, and eur/aud right now, my mind can't handle much more at the moment. I like usd/cad because the bear trend has been broken, and it helps me confirm things with aud/usd. In 2008, the usd/cad was reluctant to go up, then finally gave in, and then went up it's entire move, 25 cents, in a month. Other pairs I like to look at , but I'm only confident enough to take a short-term trade, because I worry about possible retracements, ect. I have a fair amount of interest in JPY pairs, but would like see USD/JPY break it's long-term bear trend before trying to make swap off some /JPY pairs. So, getting back to AUD, if .8970 doesn't hold, and the TL for EUR/AUD doesn't hold, then I will have to come up with a new short-term trading plan, and I admit I could be wrong of course. My long-term trading plan (1-month to 1-year) will remain, or I'd have a headache.
  • #17,843
  • Feb 27, 2010 7:10am Feb 27, 2010 7:10am
Quoting jimbo86
Hi Clouds, Do you think NZD will weaken? My opinion is that it is highly overvalued against the GBP and USD and that the economy there isnt as good as people think
Thanks
Jimbo - your posts are delayed so I don't think Clouds saw them. I thought you were a Kiwi (from your name) but I see you are in the UK. Haven't looked at GBP/NZD chart for a while but it's a sick dog. I've only got data that goes back to 1992. Looks like people have been bottom picking and I can see why but I wouldn't like to say which way it's going to go.

I get a report from BNZ emailed to me (which I haven't read for a while) but I've attached the latest one which may give you an idea of how things are hanging in NZ. You can subscribe to it, details in the pdf.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd - monthly.jpg Size: 154 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf WOFeb25.pdf   137 KB | 195 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,844
  • Feb 27, 2010 7:17am Feb 27, 2010 7:17am
Quoting egkid
Nice to see u
Good stuff Patience
Today wasn't my lucky day because i wasn't Patience enough
Well.... someday we win someday we Lose, Life.

AS we know AUD Related to gold,so

Gold? Yellow, glittering, precious gold?...
This yellow slave
Will knit and break religions, bless th’ accursed,
Make the hoar leprosy adored, place thieves,
And give them title, knee and approbation
With senators on the bench.
William Shakespeare
Hey you - what's your view then? Haven't touched gold - it's making me dizzy. What about Soros though? Saying gold is in bubble territory yet he has doubled his holdings. They speak in tongues - lol - just to confuse us. I also don't like how Bloomberg TV said yesterday about how the hedge funds have got together to short the EUR - must be a correction coming ....
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,845
  • Feb 27, 2010 7:34am Feb 27, 2010 7:34am
Quoting Patience
Hey you - what's your view then? Haven't touched gold - it's making me dizzy. What about Soros though? Saying gold is in bubble territory yet he has doubled his holdings. They speak in tongues - lol - just to confuse us. I also don't like how Bloomberg TV said yesterday about how the hedge funds have got together to short the EUR - must be a correction coming ....
Hi patience, where did you read Soros double his Gold holding?
if that's the case I guessed right (when he is saying gold will come down, he plans to buy more) for E/U everything is pointing to a correction ,may be they want to talk E/U down a bit more to close the shrots and get a better Long entery for themselves!!!
  • #17,846
  • Feb 27, 2010 7:41am Feb 27, 2010 7:41am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi patience, where did you read Soros double his Gold holding?
if that's the case I guessed right (when he is saying gold will come down, he plans to buy more) for E/U everything is pointing to a correction ,may be they want to talk E/U down a bit more to close the shrots and get a better Long entery for themselves!!!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=231

You must have missed it when I originally posted it.

As for Bloomberg and the EUR, yep, as soon as I heard them saying it, I thought the opposite
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,847
  • Feb 27, 2010 8:02am Feb 27, 2010 8:02am
Jimbo - can't find your post, but I think the days are numbered for traders shorting the pound against higher yield currencies...
  • #17,848
  • Feb 27, 2010 8:05am Feb 27, 2010 8:05am
Quoting Patience
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=231

You must have missed it when I originally posted it.

As for Bloomberg and the EUR, yep, as soon as I heard them saying it, I thought the opposite
Soros may be losing his mind. A case of gold fever? heh
  • #17,849
  • Feb 27, 2010 9:41am Feb 27, 2010 9:41am
Quoting jackal2
what do you guys consider to be the best time to trade this pair for a scalper? i know theres a lot of different strategies and most probably conform to times of higher volume. im more so wondering if anybody actually uses the lower volume times for this pair just because im under the impression it is somewhat less volatile? but im just using pip range here not necessarily % admittedly...
Hi,
I find the pair very regular compared to some and speaking from my own experience, there always seems to be a few pips around just after the Australian open, generally a good bunch just after Tokyo open, though you need to watch the sm spike that can happen in the first few minutes. Seems to be around 10:29 Noosa time. If there is no spike they often settle in for a small trend or go to sleep. Seems often enough to be a retrace before london open as people back out of positions I guess. Then the London session starts until the madness that NY can be. If you are in OZ and still up after midnight, I find that the pair has often settled enough to work with a reasonable sl and not get blown out of the water.

I knocked up an indicator that helps me find the pulse for any of the pairs that I have not worked for a while that you might find useful.
Only works on a H1 chart. Pic attached to show how 4 different pairs act differently.
The idea is that you can see when the pair is most active, and each pair is different, and also when there is price moving more in one direction than the other. It is predictive as there is an arrow showing where you are at time wise in the previous days business.
I never go into a new trade if the pulse is getting weaker, and look for a change of movement going into a busier time as a note to self to check my charts. If PA is on a Fib and has not broken through and this indi is telling me that in the past there has been a reversal often in this hour, I tend to consider the retracement option, but if it has started to trend and the pulse is getting stronger I might start or add to a position.
I made this only to help give me an overview of activity and it might help others.
I am not a coder, but hopefully will one day add an algo into the direction side of the indi that takes into account elliots etc.
Cheers from OZ.http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: brooky_candle_pulse.gif Size: 67 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Brooky_Candle_Pulse.mq4   7 KB | 270 downloads
  • #17,850
  • Feb 27, 2010 2:20pm Feb 27, 2010 2:20pm
Thank you for your replys patience and clouds. I am from the UK but lived in New Zealand for 6 years, which is probably the main reason i trade this pair. My opinion is that tha nzd will weaken, i think its strength has come a lot from its proximity/ correlation to australia. I know people in NZ and from what i hear from them things arent as good as they are made out to be. i think any problems with China will be bad for NZ also.
I also think that it is in there interest to weaken their currency as a country that relies quite a lot on exports to the UK and US markets, where the economy isnt good and people are cutting back.
The area i lived in nz was supported mainly by wine production, and they are not getting the orders they were before as their wine was more expensive to begin with. meaning as people are cutting back they are more likely to buy a cheap wine. so for a region relying so much on one industry it is bad, and it doesnt stop at wine directly, as local people work in vineyards, building tanks and transporting wine will also have less work.
From a technical point the january low was higher than the october low, and the weekly close this week was above the lower trend line, the monthly close however was lower than either october or january.
thank you for reading this, i will post a chart when i work out how to.
  • #17,851
  • Feb 27, 2010 5:14pm Feb 27, 2010 5:14pm
Quoting Clouds
Hi. On 3rd chart, look at when it was at .93 and the consolidation area, when it broke support, it went down and came up and tested this area before going down. Right now, I see .8970 as that same area. I would be a little confused if .8970 didn't hold.
Indeed it looks quite similar... though the right "peaks" (on last two highs) make me wonder if they won't try first to test last highs before drowning... (so they can sell at a much better price). At least I'd wait for the "new" DTL to be retested (0.9025). However, the two consecutive inverted H&S are descending... We'll see how the new month starts! At the moment I see price "stuck" between 8870 and 8970 (middle BB20 and sma34 in Daily, with smas pointing down) and between 8790 and 9045 on weekly, with smas pointing up. Daily bands have been flat for the last two weeks roughly. So it has to break either way. Rejection from the lows - 132 pips) was almost double than the rejection from the highs - 68 pips - (if this is of any significance).

I'm not much comfortable being bullish but if it has to rise before it falls, I'll either wait or take a ride meanwhile it does... (I am flat at the moment).

Same setup in monthly charts would give me parity ATM... or at least last HH (0.9847). Scarey isn't it? But as it has been descending, I guess it will keep evolving to the downside... or reach DTL (~9280) as a maximum. IF HH is taken out...

Quoting Clouds
I don't really think in % , and I while having some trades in long-term position trades helps me sleep at night, I also like trading for 100-150 pip TP on other pairs,, like eur/aud....
Thanks so much for your detailed explanation. Funny enough, we seem to be on the extreme opposites, as I get a headache when trading plans take more than two days to mature!

I wish I could develop such patience. Am trying to get there... but have always gotten best results in the here and now realms...
Have a great week-end!
  • #17,852
  • Feb 27, 2010 5:39pm Feb 27, 2010 5:39pm
Couple of articles to keep the bears going

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...lays-says.html
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1225834505621

Doblece thanks for your analysis and charts. Your discussion is well thought-out, and the treatment of sided volatility was food for thought.

I have to concede that on the technical side AUD still has something going for it. However I will remain bearish as it is easier than trying to pick the top.
  • #17,853
  • Feb 27, 2010 6:02pm Feb 27, 2010 6:02pm
Speaking of the formation of "new" trendlines... and more bearish views:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: angles.gif Size: 23 KB


Just noticed that a down trendline drawn from those last two "peaks" forms roughly the same angle in relationship to the "previous" DTL... if assuming an AB=CD potential pattern, we could have a descent of (at least) about 752 pips from last high...

And as it's saturday and seems I can't stop mumbling away... this brings me to a further digression into the future but please DO NOT take into account, just sharing my mental meanderings.

What if?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: angles2.gif Size: 21 KB


The channel formed by last two lows is slightly forming a wedge. Thus the potential for a wolfe wave pattern showing up.

Now I'll stop. Promise!
  • #17,854
  • Feb 27, 2010 6:26pm Feb 27, 2010 6:26pm
This is what I have for the AUD/USD for the moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 28 KB
Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
  • #17,855
  • Feb 28, 2010 4:33am Feb 28, 2010 4:33am
AUDUSD – Market Analysis and Trading Plan (28 Feb 2010)
  • #17,856
  • Feb 28, 2010 6:29am Feb 28, 2010 6:29am
Quoting Clouds
just my opinions patience ... u say about my bearish view ect, im sure there opportunity to go long on bearish pairs, but i never will..
Yeah, I get what you mean, I feel the same about GBP. But since you are more of a long term trader why don't you just place your trade, put your stop above the high at 0.9405 and come back in six months? I've read that professional long term traders can suffer big pip drawdowns but they don't have to constantly monitor the market which is the beauty of being a long term trader. I've done a few long term trades, but only because the market didn't go my way I do want the NZD or AUD to weaken so that I can take my US$ out of my US broker but I don't want to exchange at these levels. So I'm with you on wanting it to go down.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #17,857
  • Feb 28, 2010 8:10am Feb 28, 2010 8:10am
This pair was a yoyo last week. Went up and made a new high,came down and made a new low and finished the week bang on the weekly pivot point. It was looking like a really nice bearish head&shoulders on the 1hr and didn't go on with it.
There is so much data coming out this upcoming week that it could end up anywhere?
On the 8hr 360ema shows resistance around 9030 if it tries to retest the 9070 high of last week.
I'm a Bear for this pair but it rams its horns up my asss more often then not!
  • #17,858
  • Feb 28, 2010 9:40am Feb 28, 2010 9:40am
Quoting Patience
Yeah, I get what you mean, I feel the same about GBP. But since you are more of a long term trader why don't you just place your trade, put your stop above the high at 0.9405 and come back in six months? I've read that professional long term traders can suffer big pip drawdowns but they don't have to constantly monitor the market which is the beauty of being a long term trader. I've done a few long term trades, but only because the market didn't go my way ...
Long-term view trader. I like long-term trades & short-term trades & adding to long-term trades. I don't like pip draw downs. I don't like profitable trades turning into less profitable trades. AUD and NZD will weaken, maybe this week! I don't want anything, besides to make money.
  • #17,859
  • Feb 28, 2010 4:19pm Feb 28, 2010 4:19pm
Wonder what Stevens will have to say in 30 min...
  • #17,860
  • Feb 28, 2010 4:27pm Feb 28, 2010 4:27pm
Quoting Clouds
Wonder what Stevens will have to say in 30 min...
Probably nothing very dovish, my guess is interest rates will go up on tuesday.
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