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AUD/USD

  • #17,821
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:14pm Feb 26, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting Clouds
Ok, but I see resistance

AUD/USD
Attachment

USD/CAD
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EUR/AUD
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your point is valid- if you want short A/u here is a perfect RRR- coz you know where to exit
  • #17,822
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:17pm Feb 26, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting Patience
Nice. That matches Shahab's analysis.



http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1267143378
Nice to see u
Good stuff Patience
Today wasn't my lucky day because i wasn't Patience enough
Well.... someday we win someday we Lose, Life.

AS we know AUD Related to gold,so

Gold? Yellow, glittering, precious gold?...
This yellow slave
Will knit and break religions, bless th’ accursed,
Make the hoar leprosy adored, place thieves,
And give them title, knee and approbation
With senators on the bench.
William Shakespeare
  • #17,823
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:20pm Feb 26, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting Patience
I still don't get the Yen though. .
hey patience..... hundreds of trillions , and growing everyday, in carry trades..... japan's fight with deflation via negative interest rate has created the ultimate currency time bomb.....

just let them talk of raising interest rates and it will be the 1998 short squezzzzzeeee all over again.....

then clouds can short from the stratosphere......

the US dollar is almost a carry trade instrument...... however, unlike the jpy, it really will raise rates...... h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #17,824
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:20pm Feb 26, 2010 2:20pm
I read this on bloomberg

U.S. Economy: Sales of Previously Owned Homes Unexpectedly Fall
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...oPgGSmlg&pos=1

this is for January-
in Feb/March the sales are much higher- I talked to some guys in real estate- they said pending contracts on homes are 5-6 times higher on feb than last month- this will be included in sales the next months
  • #17,825
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:25pm Feb 26, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting shahab8b
I read this on bloomberg

U.S. Economy: Sales of Previously Owned Homes Unexpectedly Fall
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...oPgGSmlg&pos=1

this is for January-
in Feb/March the sales are much higher- I talked to some guys in real estate- they said pending contracts on homes are 5-6 times higher on feb than last month- this will be included in sales the next months
I think maybe 4 houses were sold in 1 year around my area... I'm waiting till I can buy mansion for 10k!
  • #17,826
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:25pm Feb 26, 2010 2:25pm
Clouds, I see what you are saying...but without the support of the dxy, s&p and gold charts we (the bears) have a problem. my 4hr is showing an ability to be short term bearish, maybe 4-6hrs worth of it before going up. the only thing saving us right now is the 35/40sma on the daily.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #17,827
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:31pm Feb 26, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Clouds, I see what you are saying...but without the support of the dxy, s&p and gold charts we (the bears) have a problem. my 4hr is showing an ability to be short term bearish, maybe 4-6hrs worth of it before going up. the only thing saving us right now is the 35/40sma on the daily.
Still have a bearish Daily gold chart, I don't follow s&p

Attached Image
  • #17,828
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:31pm Feb 26, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting Clouds
I think maybe 4 houses were sold in 1 year around my area... I'm waiting till I can buy mansion for 10k!
where do you live? - I'm in FL
  • #17,829
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:34pm Feb 26, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting Clouds
Still have a bearish gold chart, I don't follow s&p

Attachment
your previous trend line didn't look like this one -switch to weekly chart and tell me what you see there
  • #17,830
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:34pm Feb 26, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting shahab8b
where do you live? - I'm in FL
Montana, well there's only like 5,000 people, but the realtors are hurting here..
  • #17,831
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:36pm Feb 26, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting shahab8b
your previous trend line didn't look like this one -switch to weekly chart and tell me what you see there
Same thing, I am not counting the spike high.

Attached Image
  • #17,832
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:36pm Feb 26, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting Clouds
Montana, well there's only like 5,000 people, but the realtors are hurting here..
here the real estate is picking up
  • #17,833
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:38pm Feb 26, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting Clouds
Same thing, I am not counting the spike high.

Attachment
well I think in a week or two we can see if your trend lines are not a bullish flag (on monthly)
  • #17,834
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:41pm Feb 26, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting shahab8b
well I think in a week or two we can see if your trend lines are not a bullish flag (on monthly)
My dad would love if it was a bullish flag. LOL. I keep telling him sell his gold. Maybe not.
  • #17,835
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:46pm Feb 26, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting shahab8b
well I think in a week or two we can see if your trend lines are not a bullish flag (on monthly)
What if it dropped off a cliff, like EU did...
1200 just seems high to me
  • #17,836
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:50pm Feb 26, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting Clouds
Montana, well there's only like 5,000 people, but the realtors are hurting here..

montana....i need about 200-300 acres with a mountain view and a little stream running through it.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #17,837
  • Feb 26, 2010 2:55pm Feb 26, 2010 2:55pm
Quoting MarcVUM
montana....i need about 200-300 acres with a mountain view and a little stream running through it.
In 1997 u could get 10 acres for 15k,now it's like 75k-100k. 100 acres 1.5Mil or something now, depends on area of course. This area was hit hard by inflationary real estate.
  • #17,838
  • Feb 26, 2010 3:00pm Feb 26, 2010 3:00pm
Quoting Clouds
In 1997 u could get 10 acres for 15k,now it's like 75k-100k. 100 acres 1.5Mil or something now, depends on area of course. This area was hit hard by inflationary real estate.
check this out. my op is to wait to go short on aud/usd until the dxy hits the 40ma on the daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy.jpg Size: 93 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #17,839
  • Feb 26, 2010 3:01pm Feb 26, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting MarcVUM
montana....i need about 200-300 acres with a mountain view and a little stream running through it.
that sounds nice. I will buy a 200 lot next to yours. we traders should take over the state lol.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #17,840
  • Feb 26, 2010 6:29pm Feb 26, 2010 6:29pm
http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm

Here's what I see in H4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_inv_hs.gif Size: 21 KB


A closer view:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_inv_hs_closeup.gif Size: 15 KB


Note to Clouds: this is a "short term" of about 1 month scope outlook.

Note to all: but... I would be very cautious about a heavy bull trap deliberately being built (last friday and today PA showed me a series of very precise and well calculated moves). Until this week, everyone and his dog was bearish (even myself!). Now the sentiment seems to be slowly turning... and as soon as everyone and his dog starts wondering and moves to the bullish side, wham! That's the exact moment when "they" will unload and unwind the carry...

So, for a balanced view and outlook, here's the "other side of the coin":

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: other_side.gif Size: 17 KB


Just be aware of WHEN and WHERE. And be flexible.
A bias can become an ugly spouse (don't marry your positions).

A question to Clouds:
It is obvious to me now that you are a long-term position trader.
What would be the maximum drawdown (in % or in pips, as you prefer) that you'd allow when holding to your trades? (this also would include the fluctuations back). Thanks!
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