EURUSD

I'm waiting for 3700 if there is another spike up

the amazing thing is that all week long we are being hammered with bad news and the stocks are only heading in one direction which is north .

the recovering yesterday was very telling .

this is a big alarm that tells me that the elites wants the stocks up and it will go up .

any drop in stocks seems like a chance to buy .

now I will share with you one chart shows how I look at the market ,and I hope this can contribute in some way to start some kind of discussion instead of just sharing trade postions without explanation why it was taken.

first of all the trend is down and only blind can say its an up trend . but check this out .

I use very simple setup which is based on 3 indicators , moving averages 18,45,100,200 second one is bollinger bands third is stochastic .

and one extra indicator I programmed it my self which is there only to make me see the trend easier . (there is one thing missing in it but its enought for me at the moment hence I know what to look for ).

the down trend is lower highs and lower lows and obviously the strategy is to sell the rallies .

( this one for the noobs in here ) bollinger band is designed to keep price within the band 95% of the time so the remaining 5% is devided 2.5% above the upper band and 2.5% below the lower band . yesterday we touched the lower band , so there was a 2.5% chance of price to keep falling and 97% chance of price to go side ways or to the up side or . thats why I took the 97% probability which looks more promising and closed my shorts while other noobs took the 2.5% possibility, when it didn't break the previous low I took the long side its that simple!.

now it will get more interesting.

in the chart the line that moves on the candles is called the swing line , (its not my invention but I am the one who programed it ) .

we have not made lower low yesterday . in fact we did higher low and my stochastic is screaming divergence and out of its bearish status .

what is the last high on this trend ? its the 3691 ! . if that figure got taken out ( i hope so coz my wife gets paid in EU ) then the down trend is no longer there and an up trend have just started !.

what will be my strategy ? it will be buying the dips .
what are my targets ? the upper bollinger band or the closest MA .

but the most crucial question what is my strategy at the moment ? SELL IT !
on this chart is my account and I sold it and my stop is obvious 2 pips above the 3691 .
because its still a down trend and i have to behave as its, a down trend as long as that figure is intact even though I wish I lose it .

but I truly beleive that this thing is going to break to the north if not today then next weak.
that position is there just for me to tell me if I lose it CHANGE YOUR PLAN!


I hope this was an informative post to a respectable forum such as forex factory .

I'd give her the 8hr special.

I believe Greece is just beginning.

m

That's what i'm thinking.. At .37 ish.. i'll short.. and risk the 30 pips I made today..

No, but scalping has been good to me this morning!

Hi would like to ask a novice question as to how do we know that long term trend is ending?

Eg. Some of you mentioned that the bear trend is ending and due for a reversal.

Question: How can we tell?

Thanks for any guidance.

Do you think its true that soros is shorting to 1.0000?

Haha, now I don't know...just seems to be sitting at 3670 waiting for me

YOUR STOP going to be taking out in about 10-30 min. Just watch.

I'm waiting to short again until it hits that top 3sd BB, which should be 3700 or more

it's all subjective (meaning depends). some use moving averages, others use peak and through analysis, and some use combinations of them. most are referring to longer time frames such as 4hr, daily, and weekly. when price crosses a major moving average it is at least an attempt at changing the trend. I could write about 20 pages on this but you should google peak and through analysis or determing the trend and you'll find a ton of resources.

What we are seeing would be a bottoming process and the possible start of a trend change.

However... the fundamentals aren't on this side of the EUR.

m

Shorts going to tell you the TREND has been change when we going

to hit 1.50, mean while EUR playing with 100 EMA it might take time,

but If it retrace down a bit I'm long only from now on.

[EUR/USD] has finally taken out the 1.3625-30 area, having initially erased the 1.3627 from Wed earlier on. The market feels as though there is plenty more to go on the upside, and NY specs have already taken out the next 1.3655-60 area, though a more rigorous test lies up ahead of 1.3700 fig. 1.3693 represents the Tue's peak.

this temps me to go short.

Dow Theory: Trend Remains In Effect Until Clear Reversal Occurs.

Things have been changed a lot ,one wave 5 ending within a triangle ? 1.3744-66 now may stop.bulls all over, one after the other.
fontu

However Fundamentals wasn't on the USD side as well. What's so bad

for Greece, just "OK" for USA, only because Feds can print Dollars

and Greece cannot.

Congratulations, I think you have locked your profit

For one thing he would never telegraph which way he is going.
Remember this:
If Soros' lips are moving, he's lying. If he says he's short.....go loooooong.