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AUD/USD

  • #17,621
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:05pm Feb 25, 2010 11:05pm
Quoting doblece
A double bottom is a potential reversal, which I am not aiming to as it would have to break above last highs. I'd rather think of a consolidation zone.

An H4 wolfe wave (* edited for correction) gives me a turn back up to about 9000 for tomorrow 10:00 GMT (lines were slighty wrong, sorry).

I'll revert to my former bearish sentiment if 8950 resistance holds, and add to it if trendline at about 8710 breaks.

Meanwhile, I'd rather be on the positive side of the rollover...

Attachment

However, it is true that to get there...
If you held a position for 1 year, for rollover you'd make 10,000? 30$/day.
So if you wanted to hold that position for 10 years, u'd make 100,000? Well, that might be worthwhile, cause it won't go to zero... But I don't think you're trading for retirement fund..;;

AUD have major resistance NOW. I'm not trying to convince u of anything, but it would be in your financial interest to explore all views....

AUD major resistance EMA on 4HR
Attached Image
  • #17,622
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:08pm Feb 25, 2010 11:08pm
Quoting Clouds
Hmmmm... but TL have been broken and broken , why don't you think it's going to .50?? Not sure what double bottom u mean....
Because at the level it's presently consolidating, an upswing against the trend can bear quite a lot of pips. So I'd rather be on the right side this time...

I mean the right leg of the "M" formation (H4), support at 8785/8800 area.

I have no particular strong conviction for a bullish neither a bearish view. I only try to see both sides of the picture to be sure that I'll do the correct moves given either PA. As I said before: if 8950 resistance holds I'll short... but the downtrend is not confirmed to me as long as 8710 isn't broken.
  • #17,623
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:08pm Feb 25, 2010 11:08pm
stop being paranoid and hedge your position until you have confirmation of direction
Annoying Precision
  • #17,624
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:11pm Feb 25, 2010 11:11pm
Quoting erikte279
stop being paranoid and hedge your position until you have confirmation of direction
who u speak
  • #17,625
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:15pm Feb 25, 2010 11:15pm
doblece
Annoying Precision
  • #17,626
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:19pm Feb 25, 2010 11:19pm
many times ive seen my profits erased prior to LONDON betting on a reversal, thats why i'd rather just pay the spread again until I feel more comfortable with the direction of the session
Annoying Precision
  • #17,627
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:32pm Feb 25, 2010 11:32pm
Quoting erikte279
many times ive seen my profits erased prior to LONDON betting on a reversal, thats why i'd rather just pay the spread again until I feel more comfortable with the direction of the session
Direction is more a step by step decision making depending on PA.
If I see a confirmed bullish pinbar on H4 (along with other configurations), I'm bullish until I get a contrarian pattern. I try to take into account all the S/R elements that are on the way (both sides) and I set a potential profit target which will evolve or fail depending on the subsequent moves.

And I feel for you, as one of the reasons that reinforces my actual bullishness is same as yours but on the other side...
  • #17,628
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:33pm Feb 25, 2010 11:33pm
looks normal, broke TL, tested it once

Attached Image
  • #17,629
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:36pm Feb 25, 2010 11:36pm
this is EUR/AUD, opposite correlation of AUD/USD. I think it's better give bullish AUD a break, and think realistically, what's more likely.......
(2.08 or 1.00?) If you don't trade with a long-term mindset disregard this post..

Attached Image
  • #17,630
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:41pm Feb 25, 2010 11:41pm
??
Quoting doblece
And I feel for you, as one of the reasons that reinforces my actual bullishness is same as yours but on the other side...
Annoying Precision
  • #17,631
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:47pm Feb 25, 2010 11:47pm
Neither, to be realistic I'd say .5 lol gotcha. There is no way its going to reach par with the euro.

Quoting Clouds
this is EUR/AUD, opposite correlation of AUD/USD. I think it's better give bullish AUD a break, and think realistically, what's more likely.......
(2.08 or 1.00?) If you don't trade with a long-term mindset disregard this post..

Attachment
Annoying Precision
  • #17,632
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:53pm Feb 25, 2010 11:53pm
Quoting erikte279
Neither, to be realistic I'd say .5 lol gotcha. There is no way its going to reach par with the euro.
I was just at my bank and they were trading me EUR's for USD at parity. I wonder what that's about??

JK
  • #17,633
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:56pm Feb 25, 2010 11:56pm
Quoting erikte279
??
= Having a longer term bias while actual PA is against it.
= Trade what you see!

That's what I'm watching by now, after the bullish pinbar:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pitchfork.PNG Size: 19 KB


8954 - strong resistance
It can make a triple top or break.
8972 - top upwards pitchfork channel
It can break up or bounce back to middle line.
Then it can oscillate inside the upper channel or break down.
8815 - middle downwards pitchfork
It can bounce back up inside the downwards channel, or break.
8801 - possible double bottom or break to 8710 (bottom pitchfork down channel)

And it could also go back and forth between 8800 and 9000 for a while...
  • #17,634
  • Feb 25, 2010 11:59pm Feb 25, 2010 11:59pm
Secret joke that only you get...........LOL

Quoting Clouds
I was just at my bank and they were trading me EUR's for USD at parity. I wonder what that's about??

JK
Annoying Precision
  • #17,635
  • Feb 26, 2010 12:19am Feb 26, 2010 12:19am
what do you guys consider to be the best time to trade this pair for a scalper? i know theres a lot of different strategies and most probably conform to times of higher volume. im more so wondering if anybody actually uses the lower volume times for this pair just because im under the impression it is somewhat less volatile? but im just using pip range here not necessarily % admittedly...
  • #17,636
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:02am Feb 26, 2010 1:02am
short 8893, 8855 target for t1. Who else is bearish on au?
  • #17,637
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:05am Feb 26, 2010 1:05am
Quoting big_pipin
short 8893, 8855 target for t1. Who else is bearish on au?
yes i've tp .83
  • #17,638
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:07am Feb 26, 2010 1:07am
In the short run I am.

Long run--Bullish.
  • #17,639
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:08am Feb 26, 2010 1:08am
Quoting jackal2
what do you guys consider to be the best time to trade this pair for a scalper? i know theres a lot of different strategies and most probably conform to times of higher volume. im more so wondering if anybody actually uses the lower volume times for this pair just because im under the impression it is somewhat less volatile? but im just using pip range here not necessarily % admittedly...
i trade in clusters of 5 lots for scalping for example in AUD/USD where the trade is predominat downside... I wait for spikes so I sell... take 15 to 20 pips and Im out....may go lower but i wait for a retracement usually in the 15v minute charts i follow this candles for fast trading...never BUY! because u can get traped forever...just sell and sell... if the currency retraces just wait till is as high as u think will go and resell.

ive made more of the profit for this account with that system
  • #17,640
  • Feb 26, 2010 1:10am Feb 26, 2010 1:10am
Quoting yorygog
In the short run I am.

Long run--Bullish.
Ha. Ok.
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