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AUD/USD

  • #17,601
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:15pm Feb 25, 2010 8:15pm
If I may offer a reason for this possible top... according to a trading system developed by eohater on the cable thread we have just hit the 62ema on the 1hr. if it hasn't been there in a while it will touch and then fall right back from where it came. i myself sold more at 89 and feel confident of a nice slide down from here. time will tell...hopefully i'm right...what would trading be without a little risk!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #17,602
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:15pm Feb 25, 2010 8:15pm
if not in a position, wait till this breaks!
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  • #17,603
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:17pm Feb 25, 2010 8:17pm
i forgot... to add to my decision i used the stoch on the 1hr ...overbought and I have an adx indicator on my 15min which is showing a sign of going lower.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #17,604
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:19pm Feb 25, 2010 8:19pm
Quoting Clouds
it's not right. 3.0 is more like it....
we have extreme negative carry now. it's gonna get a lot worse..... if u like , u can look at 2008 for a good idea... gbp/aud and gbp/nzd are gonna go up, while the jpy crosses fall more than you'll see in your life -time , while the stock market slices through 650...... have fun!
The Chinese are kind of mad at us at the moment, I wonder if them being absent in our Treasury auctions will drive the rate on our paper higher (out of control of our Fed) this would pressure rates up and the market down- but 650 is a big slice.
  • #17,605
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:19pm Feb 25, 2010 8:19pm
extreme negative carry? If your right lunch is on me, so what your saying is that the only reason its at the level its at is not because of the stronger nzd economy but because of the interest rate differential.

What I gather from you is that

A: You suspect that great britian is going to raise there interest rates to even out the carry trade

or

B: the carry trade dosent matter and the big players dont mind losing out on the swap

or

?

Quoting Clouds
it's not right. 3.0 is more like it....
we have extreme negative carry now. it's gonna get a lot worse..... if u like , u can look at 2008 for a good idea... gbp/aud and gbp/nzd are gonna go up, while the jpy crosses fall more than you'll see in your life -time , while the stock market slices through 650...... have fun!
Annoying Precision
  • #17,606
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:21pm Feb 25, 2010 8:21pm
I appreciate you taking your time out to explain these things to me.
Annoying Precision
  • #17,607
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:24pm Feb 25, 2010 8:24pm
Quoting Clouds
if not in a position, wait till this breaks!
Attachment
  • #17,608
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:24pm Feb 25, 2010 8:24pm
Quoting erikte279
extreme negative carry? If your right lunch is on me, so what your saying is that the only reason its at the level its at is not because of the stronger nzd economy but because of the interest rate differential.

What I gather from you is that

A: You suspect that great britian is going to raise there interest rates to even out the carry trade

or

B: the carry trade dosent matter and the big players dont mind losing out on the swap

or

?
the carry trade is just like the stock market... they follow same direction... whether it's swap or dividends, it's not worth it, if the value of the stock /or carry go down.. so no, the swap doesn't matter... nothing goes up forever, and nothing goes down forever... during the great depression, the stock market went down some 40-45%, and then went up 35% before it crashed and lost 80% of it's value... if u want carry trade swap, wait 6-months 1-year and when the time is right, u can buy and make carry trade swap
  • #17,609
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:29pm Feb 25, 2010 8:29pm
Quoting Clouds
the carry trade is just like the stock market... they follow same direction... whether it's swap or dividends, it's not worth it, if the value of the stock /or carry go down.. so no, the swap doesn't matter... nothing goes up forever, and nothing goes down forever... during the great depression, the stock market went down some 40-45%, and then went up 35% before it crashed and lost 80% of it's value... if u want carry trade swap, wait 6-months 1-year and when the time is right, u can buy and make carry trade swap
Actually, wrong.

Generally in the currency market: long on risk will pay you yield (interest differential).
Generally in the stock market: long on risk will cost you yield (interest paid on margin borrowed) and prices adjust downwards after dividends are paid.

So on the stock exchange, you get paid to be short on risk. You do not get paid to be short on risk in 99.9999% of the cases on the foreign exchange.
  • #17,610
  • Feb 25, 2010 8:33pm Feb 25, 2010 8:33pm
Quoting sinner-
Actually, wrong.

Generally in the currency market: long on risk will pay you yield (interest differential).
Generally in the stock market: long on risk will cost you yield (interest paid on margin borrowed) and prices adjust downwards after dividends are paid.

So on the stock exchange, you get paid to be short on risk. You do not get paid to be short on risk in 99.9999% of the cases on the foreign exchange.
hmm, ok, i dont trade stocks, i didn't know it cost yield, just knew u get dividends from some stocks. I realize about negative/positive carry interest in currencies though.
  • #17,611
  • Feb 25, 2010 9:17pm Feb 25, 2010 9:17pm
Can you see Correlation between AUDUSD and NZDUSD?
http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...if?w=244&h=141 http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...if?w=244&h=141 http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...if?w=244&h=141 http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...if?w=244&h=141
  • #17,612
  • Feb 25, 2010 9:19pm Feb 25, 2010 9:19pm
Yes, I can see :nerd:
Annoying Precision
  • #17,613
  • Feb 25, 2010 9:29pm Feb 25, 2010 9:29pm
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  • #17,614
  • Feb 25, 2010 9:51pm Feb 25, 2010 9:51pm
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Two sides of the coin.
  • #17,615
  • Feb 25, 2010 9:54pm Feb 25, 2010 9:54pm
Quoting doblece
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Two sides of the coin.
that's more like playing dice. more likely down
  • #17,616
  • Feb 25, 2010 9:55pm Feb 25, 2010 9:55pm
Quoting clc4x
Can you see Correlation between AUDUSD and NZDUSD?
http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...if?w=244&h=141 http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...if?w=244&h=141 http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...if?w=244&h=141...
93.97 Correlation
  • #17,617
  • Feb 25, 2010 9:57pm Feb 25, 2010 9:57pm
Quoting clc4x
Can you see Correlation between AUDUSD and NZDUSD?
http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...if?w=244&h=141 http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...if?w=244&h=141 http://clc4x.files.wordpress.com/201...if?w=244&h=141...
You gotta trade one or the other man. Might as well stack positions in one as you're going to get repetetive signals. If you want to trade some inter-comm-doll positions, I suggest AUD/NZD.
  • #17,618
  • Edited 10:57pm Feb 25, 2010 10:28pm | Edited 10:57pm
Quoting Clouds
that's more like playing dice. more likely down
A double bottom is a potential reversal, which I am not aiming to as it would have to break above last highs. I'd rather think of a consolidation zone.

An H4 wolfe wave (* edited for correction) gives me a turn back up to about 9000 for tomorrow 10:00 GMT (lines were slighty wrong, sorry).

I'll revert to my former bearish sentiment if 8950 resistance holds, and add to it if trendline at about 8710 breaks.

Meanwhile, I'd rather be on the positive side of the rollover...

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However, it is true that to get there (and that's why I said IF level 9000 held) it has to break a few strong resistances on its way. But I see as quite possible a retest of recent highs before the definitive plunge. 9000/9025 would be the tip of the right shoulder.
  • #17,619
  • Feb 25, 2010 10:38pm Feb 25, 2010 10:38pm
Quoting doblece
A double bottom is a potential reversal, which I am not aiming to as it would have to break above last highs. I'd rather think of a consolidation zone.

An H4 wolfe wave gives me a turn back up to about 9025 for sunday open.

I'll revert to my former bearish sentiment if 8950 resistance holds, and add to it if trendline at about 8710 breaks.

Meanwhile, I'd rather be on the positive side of the rollover...
Hmmmm... but TL have been broken and broken , why don't you think it's going to .50?? Not sure what double bottom u mean....

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  • #17,620
  • Feb 25, 2010 10:40pm Feb 25, 2010 10:40pm
Second short in the AUD placed TP 0.8652 again.JPY vs USD and GBP doing ok so far ...good luck everyone!
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