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  • #202,141
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:30pm Feb 24, 2010 4:30pm
Testing that ascending TL again, will it break or bounce? Time will tell
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  • #202,142
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:32pm Feb 24, 2010 4:32pm
as price is still going down first leg will be finished at 1.35 area where correcton will happen so i ll be looking to buy at 1.35 area i m looking for divergence to occur at that area DS1 1.348
  • #202,143
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:34pm Feb 24, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting Zsx
Let's say you enter short at 3600, SL at 3650. You get stopped out, and the price goes to 3750 before turning around. At 3650, you would re-enter, and now the short-term trend would be on your side. In essence, you never closed your trade, but didn't have to suffer the extra 100 pip drawdown.

That's the basic premise, there are some guidelines for when to and not to use it.

I haven't had a losing trade this week, because of Anti-Hedging.(I have had losing trades, but re-opened all of them, earned back the loss, and the expected profit as well.)...
Thanks, and I did just go back and reread it. The first time through i just picked up on some key words that made me think this was about averaging down, obviously this is different.

Hope I didn't just kill my internet credibility.
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  • #202,144
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:37pm Feb 24, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting TudorJonesJR
I think the right word is inverted hammer and that is a bullish signal...
I'm curious because I'm interested in how people develop their trading systems, but have any of you that use candlestick formations ever back tested those patterns? I ask because I have and I failed to find a pattern that was predictive of anything. Granted I haven't tested them on forex, but I did use the entire US stock database for several decades. Did I miss something?
  • #202,145
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:39pm Feb 24, 2010 4:39pm
Quoting Bigdaddypips
I have 3 short postions right now all at different entries, thinking maybe I should close all 3 and break even or let them run, everything I see say trend still down.

I would let them run but it depends on how deep your pockets are .....don't understand the term wrong or get scared of it but search the word gamblers ruin in wikipedia to understand "the bank always win"

what I am saying is calculate how steep of a retracement you can handle we may go back up to 1.36 or even 1.3650 if your account can handle that i would let them run.

Any how the odds are in your favor for a sizable profit if you hold on
  • #202,146
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:39pm Feb 24, 2010 4:39pm
ok... an update here...
Weird movements on USD and GOLD... but my first target on USD was ok... also on EUR... and i started to short on EURUSD at 1.3622 that gone well, tp at middle channel... i jump away from market due to strange behavior...
My long on gold reached half my target 1107, then it came down and took me away on my stop at BE... who the hell was buying gold buying usd and shortin eur at the same time?!?!
Oh hell... i'm out 'til the panorama turns a bit clearer here...
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  • #202,147
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:40pm Feb 24, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting BudFox
Thanks, and I did just go back and reread it. The first time through i just picked up on some key words that made me think this was about averaging down, obviously this is different.

Hope I didn't just kill my internet credibility.
Haha, don't worry about it. With all the crap on the internet(my posts included), we all have a tendency to just skim through it.

  • #202,148
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:43pm Feb 24, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting Protogenos
I'm curious because I'm interested in how people develop their trading systems, but have any of you that use candlestick formations ever back tested those patterns? I ask because I have and I failed to find a pattern that was predictive of anything. Granted I haven't tested them on forex, but I did use the entire US stock database for several decades. Did I miss something?
Just a personal opinion here but I believe they hold more weight in the larger time frames. When looking at weekly or monthly candles which match the patterns they can sometimes give an indication of what MIGHT happen, however I can flip a coin and also tell you what MIGHT happen as well. Some of it could be a self fulfilling prophecy as if enough people see the same pattern at the right spot, their education tells them to behave a certain way.

Think of it as standing in the road with a car coming at you, you have been educated to get out of the way. I think the patterns behave in a similar fashion. They don't do anything on their own, it is our reactions to them as traders/humans/systems that produce the result which we see as reversals, etc, and this is based completly upon us performing the prescribed action when they appear.
  • #202,149
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:48pm Feb 24, 2010 4:48pm
h1 = engulfing
  • #202,150
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:49pm Feb 24, 2010 4:49pm
Quoting grandpost
I would let them run but it depends on how deep your pockets are .....don't understand the term wrong or get scared of it but search the word gamblers ruin in wikipedia to understand "the bank always win"

what I am saying is calculate how steep of a retracement you can handle we may go back up to 1.36 or even 1.3650 if your account can handle that i would let them run.

Any how the odds are in your favor for a sizable profit if you hold on
I'm still waiting to try out Jackos method. A large retracement would be a good time to try it
  • #202,151
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:51pm Feb 24, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting BudFox
I agree, and have some similar lines on my H4 as well, was just noticing this H1 possible channel. As you mention, and we agree it has to break that ascending TL forming the bottom of the H4 channel if this H1 channel is going to actually materialize. Right now PA is just static, may have to wait until Tokyo opens to see some movement.

You can also see (on the same chart) that it has formed a triangle and a decent breakout is to be expected within a day or max 2 days. Even tough I'm bearish on eu, at this point I hold both up and down as possible directions. Up as a correction, before new lows.
  • #202,152
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:58pm Feb 24, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting cacus
ok... an update here...
Weird movements on USD and GOLD... but my first target on USD was ok... also on EUR... and i started to short on EURUSD at 1.3622 that gone well, tp at middle channel... i jump away from market due to strange behavior...
My long on gold reached half my target 1107, then it came down and took me away on my stop at BE... who the hell was buying gold buying usd and shortin eur at the same time?!?!
Oh hell... i'm out 'til the panorama turns a bit clearer here...

They are both BEAR but they may be in different part of the pattern check to see which started , downtrend first and then check how long they consolidated for ........Then you will have perspective which is competing the pattern first.

Like a swiss watch (gears)

That's besides they don't want the whole market in opportunity in one time or EUPHORIA will Happen
  • #202,153
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:58pm Feb 24, 2010 4:58pm
Hi Protogenos

right now on EU D1 there is a pinbar, hanging man (or whatever) in the middle of nowhere. Thats nothing IMO.

Now Im a short term Divergence Scalper but will study these reversal patterns on D1 soon.

Lets scann D1 charts for Pinbars @ Support/ Resistance Levels .. Trendlines or 200 SMA


That could b a goldmine too

Has anybody experience on that stuff?


CHEERS


Quoting Protogenos
I'm curious because I'm interested in how people develop their trading systems, but have any of you that use candlestick formations ever back tested those patterns? I ask because I have and I failed to find a pattern that was predictive of anything. Granted I haven't tested them on forex, but I did use the entire US stock database for several decades. Did I miss something?
Follow the Trend, thats all
  • #202,154
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:59pm Feb 24, 2010 4:59pm
Quoting enterfx
You can also see (on the same chart) that it has formed a triangle and a decent breakout is to be expected within a day or max 2 days. Even tough I'm bearish on eu, at this point I hold both up and down as possible directions. Up as a correction, before new lows.

I don't typically attach the charts I actualy trade from (no magic secrets, I just know they look sloppy) but I've got a H4 below, with my TLs drawn not to mention a few other things, ha. I too am bearish this pair but have no problem with a counter trend trade if the r/r is worth it. ATM, my lower red TL has broken so I may target the lower part of that oragne channel. Time will tell.
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  • #202,155
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:00pm Feb 24, 2010 5:00pm
Looks like the Asian session might push us out of the tight range I figured we had settled into for the night, probably needs to break down below the 1.351-1.350 area though. On the bright side there is more movement in the last 20 minutes than we had in the last several hours.
  • #202,156
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:06pm Feb 24, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting grandpost
I would let them run but it depends on how deep your pockets are .....don't understand the term wrong or get scared of it but search the word gamblers ruin in wikipedia to understand "the bank always win"

what I am saying is calculate how steep of a retracement you can handle we may go back up to 1.36 or even 1.3650 if your account can handle that i would let them run.

Any how the odds are in your favor for a sizable profit if you hold on
Thanks for the advice, I think I will close one in small profit and let other 2 run and see what happens.
  • #202,157
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:08pm Feb 24, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting Bigdaddypips
Thanks for the advice, I think I will close one in small profit and let other 2 run and see what happens.

I hope you did and checked to see how deep your pockets are......and closing this position based on knowledge not emotion

Obviously you are not either following the pattern or pulse or even time because we are in a big run down now......so keep your other 2 enjoy and don't be upset you closed one

It would have been a perfect decision but the market is breaking in your favor ( but the bright side is you were taking moneymanagement into consideration and safe trader
PLEASE DO NOT TRADE MY RECOMMENDATIONS (I AM NOT CERTIFIED)
  • #202,158
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:14pm Feb 24, 2010 5:14pm
draw Standard deviation on w1 to w2 and put 9 in standard deviation to see timing of big run down


this will run till oscilliators create extremes beyond that of last extreme .....WAVE3

thank you
  • #202,159
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:16pm Feb 24, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting enterfx
You can also see (on the same chart) that it has formed a triangle and a decent breakout is to be expected... within a day or max 2 days.
Talk about the sun. It's shining. The lower yellow trendline is broken. phew... Trend can continue down.
  • #202,160
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:19pm Feb 24, 2010 5:19pm
i had a good nap. it felt like i slept the whole night. i get here look at the clock and damn.. then look at the chart and damn!! sos..... more politicians trying to convince the world all is ok.. i even saw one post about the piigs better off having their own currency. damn who would of thought that. just wait till the germans figure out the road goes both ways. wait till they figure out that bb will not make loans in the middle of the night to central banks so in turn they loan to europes banks. and foreign arms of goldmen cant keep loaning to the piigs. so credit get cut off to them... hey germany! "can you spare a buck"?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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