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  • #10,201
  • Feb 23, 2010 3:37pm Feb 23, 2010 3:37pm
As an aside, i thought the comments made by George Soros yesterday were interesting.
He believes that even a Greek bailout, will not relieve the long term pressure on Euro.
Also, the increasing rising debts (=budget deficits) in other countries, such as Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Spain, will be far too large to even consider bailing out.
He called the whole premise of a single currency "patently flawed", due to the lack of fiscal union.
EU and IMF are meeting later this week. His final comment was: "if member countries cannot take the next step forward, the euro may fall apart."
  • #10,202
  • Feb 23, 2010 5:49pm Feb 23, 2010 5:49pm
Quoting soso
I will crush the box this time without opening it.

Just a quick note, I spent 2+ years researching & applying Gann techniques. Simply not worth it, wasted time...
Yup... and I was there too if you recall.

Hey... there is a Full Moon this Sunday
  • #10,203
  • Feb 23, 2010 11:07pm Feb 23, 2010 11:07pm
none taken. i said i would try to keep it simple and i only explained a basic approach.

aussie globex was not the perfect example to illustrate my initial idea, that's why i didn't want to talk about it.

yes, technically, current trend should be just a pullback. but if we look at COT reports, it doesn't look that way - longs are unloading. looking at latest usd evolution, i think aussie will probably be pushed higher one more time (with or without a new top) so that last suckers would rush in hoping for another long and prosperous ride. what would really happen then... well, we'll see.

so basically i have nothing else to say because i think exactly the same way as you do. indeed, it seems puzzling, but i think this information might be enough to save the last position in the direction of the main trend... the one that should be the loser before another trend.

Quoting strat
Scrat, don’t take this as criticism on your use of COT charts just take it as my lack of clear understanding on how to use them and the information they show....
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #10,204
  • Feb 24, 2010 1:08am Feb 24, 2010 1:08am
Quoting Lou
Yup... and I was there too if you recall.

Hey... there is a Full Moon this Sunday
Yeah Lou, fun times though. Full Moon you say? I'll definetely short the dollar
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #10,205
  • Feb 24, 2010 3:23am Feb 24, 2010 3:23am
Just catching up on the thread, reading Blackeagle's posts from a couple weeks ago

Its really cool checking the charts to see where price went after those posts

almost every time price went right where expected

amazing stuff this PASR
  • #10,206
  • Feb 24, 2010 10:59am Feb 24, 2010 10:59am
For those still not convinced of the 95% that does the financial damage, a trip to watch "Shutter Island" is in order.

This and "A Beautiful Mind" shows the Power of the Mind and how we, as the mere vehicle for it, are controlled by it.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,207
  • Feb 24, 2010 11:01am Feb 24, 2010 11:01am
As we expect after big move days, the following day is a non-event.

Time for me to catch up on other stuff.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,208
  • Edited 4:52pm Feb 24, 2010 12:02pm | Edited 4:52pm
I'm reading the recent posts. It seems we have some converging and conflicting parts to the sum. Who is correct?...Soros or the EURUSD Fibo?......the Japanese finance minister or the resistance levels pointed out so elegantly here?

I agree with Soros' general point; however, did the EURO fall apart in 2001 when it was sold by everyone after every ECB meeting. No. Is it at a reasonable level to buy? Yes.

Does Japan benefit from a stromg Yen? No. Is this a ripple in an uptrend or a wave down? Look at the chart for that answer. You already know my view.

Perhaps the lynch pin tying it all together: Why are the commodity pairs comparatively unscathed? Hmmmmmmmm

How many pips are available for those with the guts to stand up to theses influences and follow the PA to establish timing? Unlimited. Hopefully some of us will be in that exclusive group. Most will follow others views, too late to survive the bumps.

Strat, I'm not sure I agree that today is a "do-nothing" day. It may be one of the few days where I check the futures volumes against the PA. These days tend, for me, to produce well-defined entry/exit points
  • #10,209
  • Feb 24, 2010 2:08pm Feb 24, 2010 2:08pm
How is the gbp/nzd looking....strat...alexandria....?
Annoying Precision
  • #10,210
  • Feb 24, 2010 2:31pm Feb 24, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting erikte279
How is the gbp/nzd looking....strat...alexandria....?
Sorry, don't do GBPNZD
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,211
  • Feb 24, 2010 2:37pm Feb 24, 2010 2:37pm
Not even if you see a good opportunity? Looks like a failed retest to me. Short
Annoying Precision
  • #10,212
  • Edited 3:06pm Feb 24, 2010 2:56pm | Edited 3:06pm
Quoting erikte279
How is the gbp/nzd looking....strat...alexandria....?
Still in an unresolved wedge. Very little room to the downside unless it breaks DSRI this time. As Strat has said on other similar charts, I'll be waiting for the resolution of the wedge. Plus, this cross is so volatile and with average daily ranges in the 400's, it would have to be a very clean setup for me to trade GBPNZD. Your SL alone would be 250 pips. Not even a 1:1 RR from what I see.

-m
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  • #10,213
  • Feb 24, 2010 4:46pm Feb 24, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting strat
Sorry, don't do GBPNZD
Not on of mine either.....sorry about that. Honestly though, it has a commodity base, and I would treat it that way.
  • #10,214
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:09pm Feb 24, 2010 5:09pm
Interesant picture.For me this is the power of DSRI.
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My humble opinion.
  • #10,215
  • Feb 24, 2010 5:10pm Feb 24, 2010 5:10pm
sorry E/C not E/J.
My humble opinion.
  • #10,216
  • Feb 24, 2010 8:05pm Feb 24, 2010 8:05pm
Risk aversion wobbles tonight after a Greek minister started a war of words with Germany over WW2 reparations and it now looks increasing unlikely Greece will be bailed out out.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703510204575085822102779364.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Lets see where we are in the morning. Some big fib levels coming up for cable and GJ and we will see if the low of 3 weeks ago holds for EJ.
  • #10,217
  • Feb 24, 2010 10:38pm Feb 24, 2010 10:38pm
AUD/NZD

I know its like its 8th attempt to break this level. I believe there has been a fundamental shift in the favor of the aussie as far as interest rates go, and it may lead to a nice move. The trend has been sideways but on the BOSS and BIG BOSS the MAs momentum are shifting upwards. The next key resistance level on my chart is at 1.36.

GL
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  • #10,218
  • Feb 25, 2010 12:44am Feb 25, 2010 12:44am
Quoting elitejets
Risk aversion wobbles tonight after a Greek minister started a war of words with Germany over WW2 reparations and it now looks increasing unlikely Greece will be bailed out out.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703510204575085822102779364.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Lets see where we are in the morning. Some big fib levels coming up for cable and GJ and we will see if the low of 3 weeks ago holds for EJ.
E/J stops will likely be hit I would guess. I'll be looking at 89 in the mother ship for a directional sense again.

One has to look for the exhaustion factor in the EURO markets at some point....but again...why? There are better trades. The shorts can ride the excess and be thankful.
  • #10,219
  • Feb 25, 2010 1:41am Feb 25, 2010 1:41am
Quoting Alexandra
E/J stops will likely be hit I would guess. I'll be looking at 89 in the mother ship for a directional sense again.

One has to look for the exhaustion factor in the EURO markets at some point....but again...why? There are better trades. The shorts can ride the excess and be thankful.
A question if I may, the previous low has been taken out, does that not mean that the next station is about 117, and how much PA does one need to short this now, bearing in mind I can only try to trade from SR to SR.

I am not trading it YET but would have thought that this is a valid short now, if not, why not would help me and the other newbies.

Larry
  • #10,220
  • Feb 25, 2010 1:42am Feb 25, 2010 1:42am
I see there's a lot of talk about JPY, why BOJ doesn't like a strong yen etc etc and that a long term yen down trend is about to start (meaning long usdjpy, eurjpy ... just to be clear). Unfortunately "is about" has no value whatsoever in my humble opinion. Until the trend "has changed" why not stick with the good old trend? Simply following Strat's good friend, Dr. Joe, advice? Buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down.

I hate to post after the fact charts but I believe this is a good example. Take EURJPY, big Weekly range - about 10 months, then 5 weeks ago we broke down the range in harmony with the longer term trend - bearish. Then on 19 Feb we have a BEEB off SR at 20 EMA WITH the trend.
It didnt look back since, it hit the round number 120.00 today - conservative traders can fully close or take partial profit here. Next in line is 115.00.
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
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