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EURUSD

  • #199,961
  • Feb 21, 2010 9:23pm Feb 21, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting tradedragon
Dow futures are up 26points. It looks like EURUSD will shoot up when US market open.

1.37 today.
Already priced in.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #199,962
  • Feb 21, 2010 9:23pm Feb 21, 2010 9:23pm
Just pointing out something...We have resistance there and it seems like profit taking was the "corrective" move for friday. I think 1.3555 is the target for me tonight.
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  • #199,963
  • Edited 9:36pm Feb 21, 2010 9:26pm | Edited 9:36pm
Morning to all , what expect at the day end come at the begining . anyway it may play yoyo around this level 1.3646 or go any up only a daily close at or over this level will constitute a daily level sell signal.. Now in H1 may go down & close H1 candle below 1.3621 fot next buy signal.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #199,964
  • Feb 21, 2010 9:30pm Feb 21, 2010 9:30pm
if eu busts a move above 1.3660 I would get rid of the sells for now ...

4 hours still has higher lows ....reatracement off 1.3650 is on low low vol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #199,965
  • Feb 21, 2010 9:32pm Feb 21, 2010 9:32pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Let's assume that the mess of Oct/Nov 09 was indeed wave 5 impulse completion.

Thus, the predicted a-b-c pattern is definitely apparent from there on the daily/weekly chart.

Now.

Where will it end?

I have included a fib expansion of my assumed wave a on the chart as well as a "bullish retracement" fibonacci in blue of the 08-09 rally.

You can see there was a strong confluence of 50FR and 100FE which we have sliced through and rejected twice on the weekly.

It would be pretty unusual for it to stop and reverse right here. Technically, wave c should go to either symmetry of wave a (which we have passed) or more usually, to around 161.8FE of wave a.

This would be a strong test of bullish support, and if the market turns up from those levels possibly the beginning of a new 5 impulsive waves upwards (inflation scenario?).

If we do base here and rally from the 50FR/100FE confluence, I would still be expecting 5 impulse moves up but probably just to test the highs, not break them.

The market has not shown its hand yet, so this is all still a bit up in the air.
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  • #199,966
  • Feb 21, 2010 9:49pm Feb 21, 2010 9:49pm
dono where this thing will plant its flag. math said 3715 or 3732. i got a chart that says 3718... but i let my opinion get it the way with what math said. but i had good reason and the reasons are still valid. there are many reasons this area 3622/53/67 + is conjested from conception charts. on the bull side we could build a base here above 3622.. but on the bear side we go down and stay down. 3324 plus slip we may bounce and retry 3622 or 3542 or 3434. bigger charts show 3368 3186 plus a few.. i will start closing shorts above 3752..but will sell all the way up. and will sell bigger positions on the way down.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #199,967
  • Feb 21, 2010 9:55pm Feb 21, 2010 9:55pm
Quoting sinner-
Let's assume that the mess of Oct/Nov 09 was indeed wave 5 impulse completion.

Thus, the predicted a-b-c pattern is definitely apparent from there on the daily/weekly chart.

Now.

Where will it end?

I have included a fib expansion of my assumed wave a on the chart as well as a "bullish retracement" fibonacci in blue of the 08-09 rally.

You can see there was a strong confluence of 50FR and 100FE which we have sliced through and rejected twice on the weekly.

It would be pretty unusual for it to stop and reverse right here. Technically,...
Just what i see , eu actually in a very cretical stage , we tell this or that but it may go its own direction any time.
So far the present cycle we know price near end , 1-5-abc end over 61.8% fibs already that again just start of one step of bigger cycle after AB truncated C end before 3 march 09 & unfold new this level but continue next higher one .all UP .wave C very big as bad dream for we shorters .

Fortunately trend is still down ,slow but not halt & nothing happened yet determin end C.
thanks ,
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #199,968
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:28pm Feb 21, 2010 10:28pm
[quote=gatorinla;3485673]

Hi gat, is there any news that may probably bring Euro move up ?
  • #199,969
  • Edited 10:40pm Feb 21, 2010 10:30pm | Edited 10:40pm
Morning All...On previous Friday I was buying on level 13452..then I felt the trend changing and share it here and said the first we should see 13610 and then next if we break that we will go to 13750..I am sometimes feeling I am a good trader...I have still my position open as I am very far for now from this level and hope you all win today..A good week starts for me moralish...Bullish market is my opinion, at least this day it should continue as the Asian holds the bullish trend..

PS: OK I closed at 13632 and will wait if possible a better buy position +190 pips is enough adventure
" Accepting losses is the most important single investment devise "
  • #199,970
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:33pm Feb 21, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting freedom48
Morning All...On previous Friday I was buying on level 13452..then I felt the trend changing and share it here and said the first we should see 13610 and then next if we break that we will go to 13750..I am sometimes feeling I am a good trader...I have still my position open as I am very far for now from this level and hope you all win today..A good week starts for me moralish...Bullish market is my opinion, at least this day it should continue as the Asian holds the bullish trend..

awesome JOB ...... great trade

I also sometimes feel I am great trader ... BUT then lose my account .. 2 to 3 times according to some ( go back in thread you will get joke)
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #199,971
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:36pm Feb 21, 2010 10:36pm
My newbie view.....long up to 3724 and then fall up to 3481
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  • #199,972
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:40pm Feb 21, 2010 10:40pm
Quoting sinner-
If we do base here and rally from the 50FR/100FE confluence, I would still be expecting 5 impulse moves up but probably just to test the highs, not break them.
Nice wave analysis. When you say "to test the highs" are you refering to the 1.60~ high of 2008 or the 1.51 high of 2009?
  • #199,973
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:44pm Feb 21, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
awesome JOB ...... great trade

I also sometimes feel I am great trader ... BUT then lose my account .. 2 to 3 times according to some ( go back in thread you will get joke)
thank you...I now closed the adventure,will look if better buying zone will come before London as as also my chart says there can be a little down move before being bullish again..lets see how the plan works..
" Accepting losses is the most important single investment devise "
  • #199,974
  • Feb 21, 2010 10:56pm Feb 21, 2010 10:56pm
I feel like really ride a roller coaster.
  • #199,975
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:04pm Feb 21, 2010 11:04pm
There just aren't many buyers these days eh. This is getting ugly for the euro.
  • #199,976
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:10pm Feb 21, 2010 11:10pm
Around 13605 can be a fast new buy zone to re-enter the bullish action..At least for me I will look to that action..
If not buy zone then first 13585 and next 13515 ANOTHER SCENARİO maybe not buy? hmmm confused now
" Accepting losses is the most important single investment devise "
  • #199,977
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:11pm Feb 21, 2010 11:11pm
i will watch this carefully. no short before break of 1.36... closed my longs half an hour ago..
Andreyou
  • #199,978
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:13pm Feb 21, 2010 11:13pm
G morning all

hmm what to deside..lol up or down...

lets try 3572 as 1st target
StopLoss is for none belivers... Trust the Gurus..
  • #199,979
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:16pm Feb 21, 2010 11:16pm
Morning everyone

I'm ready for a ride down toward 1.3500...at least 1.3540
Because from this point the move wasn't supported by "real" buyers
I'm still keeping my short from my last week ....i'll probably close everything once we deep 1.3540 depending on the PA

Good luck for this week everyone
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #199,980
  • Feb 21, 2010 11:23pm Feb 21, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
There just aren't many buyers these days eh. This is getting ugly for the euro.
But this ugliness is exactly what European exporters want. Just witness every day as Japanese corporates try to short USDJPY and EURJPY (already at record low levels) to keep their game hedged. Imagine if Germany (largest exports in Europe, one of the largest in the world) had to play the same game.

After a >15% decline in the Euro in less than 6 months, you would expect Germany to be extremely grateful to Greece, for their troubles have breathed fresh life into German exports. But not too willing to bail out Greece as this would put EURUSD back in the reflation basket with the commodity currencies and carry plays.

I can imagine at some point in the future a weak Euro will cause problems for European companies in the short term money markets, but we are far away from that and until then exporters are laughing.

In answer to your earlier question whenever I say "test the highs" I always mean the last confirmed wave 5 high - in this case 1.5...
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