EURUSD

Read in the morning , may be something coming next month ( on 16th? )
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61J19O20100220

let marketers sell this news first to profit from us .
fontu

Fontu, although the STO lines and MACD and Par dots (in 4H charts) are showing Euro going up I am still not very sure...what do you see?

Anyone care to comments?

Thanks

gold is in wave 4 heading south and there s H&S

I saw another news that stated 25 billion.

My friends in China who want to buy property are affected by this new policy. China government set loan quota for each bank. Some banks hit the quota on the 1st day of Feb.

2 weeks ago, I observe the impact was on JPY and AUD.

If China tighten further the loan policy, we can monitor the movement of JPY and AUD.

Just my 2 cents.

Very interesting read:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tim...albert-edwards
Countries are on 'Competitive devaluation' to keep their economy floating, but USD will remain strong to keep oil price below 100$ to avoid complete collapse.
Euro is overvalued at 25%? huh...Are we going to see EU at 1.0?

I think USD wll appreciate as China tightens the Yuan. Time to go short on Euro, may be by mid of the week.

Overall trend is down, but at the moment, we're in an early wave retrace....EUR still has room to move (long)....quite a bit before another possible fall......
Daily Divergence as well...

Based on my EW count, I couldn't find Wave 4.

This is always common concern when using EW.

Different people different count.

I seldom trade on Monday.

On M5 HUGE MACD Divergence

if both Trendlines break Im short

From the zerohedge article:

At the end of the day, the focus is precisely on the competitive FX devaluation in a fiat world. Recent frequent overtures by the Swiss National Bank indicate just how seriously this issue is starting to resound. Japan has been posturing as well (yet after 20 years of more of the same, nobody really cares) about incremental monetary policy to break deflation's back. Europe will soon be in the same boat as the US, and with China pegged to the dollar, and very likely to seek a devaluation instead of a currency inflation policy, the dollar will once again be alone as currency flows have no alternatives. Which means that the Fed will have to come up with something very creative in its quest to break the dollar's back (or else kiss Obama's export-led recovery goodbye). We are fairly confident that something will become very evident over the next 6 weeks, with the catalyst being the end of MBS QE, which as we pointed out yesterday is already 96% completed.


Exactly.

EU slowly turning, my 1 week target 1.40 with 1 retrace:

Not checking those indicators but it remain the same as of last weekend. Price to go up & close above 1.3646 daily candle to have chance bear next days .rsi divergence there.bear to push it up & bull to down to abort.
fontu

Preet

can you please explain the drop to 1.3404 .... like a shake out you mean ?

something really odd is going on , for some reason intuition tells me eu will move in to your 1,4000

look at gu on bad retail numbers ...the 60 pip drop on weakness got gobbled up by the buyers , then we saw another test in the 1,5370 zone

Dollar Tempers its Gains Into the End of the Week, Traders Keep an Eye on Rates and Risk
Saturday, 20 February 2010 02:47 GMT | Written by John Kicklighter

 

1. Feb, 19 Dollar Jumps to Nine Month Highs after the Fed Unexpectedly Hikes the Discount Rate
2. Feb, 17 Dollar Suffers its Biggest Drop in Nearly Three Months as Risk Appetite Surges, but Will it Last?
3. Feb, 18 Dollar Recovers All of Tuesday’s Losses but not Through Risk Trends or a Hawkish FOMC Minutes
4. Feb, 04 US Dollar Enjoys a Sharp Bounce as Sentiment Dips and Service Activity Improves
5. Feb, 16 Dollar Inches Higher in Thin Liquidity as the Market’s Doubts and Focus Intensify on a Greek Bailout
6. Feb, 13 Dollar Rally Squashed Once Again as Chinese Rate Hike Fails to Overpower Greek Bailout Concerns
7. Feb, 12 Dollar Rallies on Vague European Bailout Plans, Stalls after Risk Appetite Resumes its Climb
8. Feb, 11 Dollar Stabilized by Tempered Risk Trends, Bolstered by Bernanke’s Hawkish Commentary
9. Feb, 10 Dollar Retreats as Rumor of Financial Aid for Greece Jump Starts Risk Appetite
10. Feb, 09 Dollar Advances for a Fourth Consecutive Session Despite a Tempered Pace of Risk Aversion
11. Feb, 06 Dollar Extends its Impressive Trend but not even NFPs could Maintain Thursday's Momentum
12. Feb, 05 Dollar and Yen Surge as Dow and Risk Appetite Collapse but what is Left for Friday's NFPs?
13. Feb, 03 US Dollar Eases for a Second Consecutive Day as a Light Docket Exposes Risk Trends
14. Feb, 02 US Dollar Stumbles as Risk Appetite Perks up, 2010 Budget Deficit Balloons
15. Jan, 29 US Dollar Gains Following Strongest US GDP in Seven Years, Japanese Yen Up as Equities Remain Under Pressure
16. Jan, 29 US Dollar Weathers Durable Goods, Activity Reports as 4Q GDP Reading Looms
17. Jan, 27 US Dollar, Japanese Yen Mostly Stronger Ahead of FOMC Decision - Key Comments to Watch For
18. Jan, 26 US Dollar Extends its Advance as Speculative Interests Unwind and Confidence Improves
19. Jan, 25 US Dollar, Japanese Yen Down as Equities Bounce Despite Steep Drop in US Home Sales
20. Jan, 22 US Dollar Extends its Rally as Sentiment Threatens a True Collapse

• Euro: PMI Data Keeps the Focus off Greece and On Growth
• British Pound Takes a Final Hit from the Economic Docket to End the Week
• Canadian Dollar Slowly Builds Strength as Retail Sales Data Adds to a Solid Fundamental Outlook
• Australian Dollar: How Much Influence does the Global Economy’s Health have on the RBA’s Decisions?


Dollar Tempers its Gains Into the End of the Week, Traders Keep an Eye on Rates and Risk
There are two primary, fundamental drivers for the US dollar: risk appetite and interest rate forecasts. And, under most circumstances, sentiment carries the most weight as the systemic flows of capital highlight the currency’s safe haven qualities as well as the greenback’s role as a source of funding for a leveraged carry interest. However, for much of the past week, we have seen risk trends settle and traders take a closer look at the fundamental appeal of the dollar. With a backdrop of growing trouble in the Euro Zone (until recently, the primary substitute to the US for global investors) and more realistic forecasts for growth/returns; the dollar’s appeal is certainly improved beyond a mere demand for short-term liquidity. Given this setup, the Federal Reserve’s move to hike the discount rate yesterday after the market close posed the perfect driver for the dollar. This move – while not carry the same influence as a hike to the Fed Funds rate – moved up the time table for policy tightening, improved the fiscal health of the policy authority and threatened to unnerve investors as easy money was drawn out of the market. The immediate reaction played out exactly as expected: with a dollar rally leading a general deterioration in risk appetite. However, the full scope of this announcement’s impact couldn’t be assessed until all of the markets were able to respond. By the time US liquidity was topped off, the dollar’s strength was fading. The fundamental appeal of the currency itself wasn’t receding; but the revived link to underlying sentiment trends doomed the greenback’s breakout as fear never truly developed from this milestone event.

Has the dollar’s late-session pullback doomed its push to a fresh eight-month high? Unlikely. From a technical perspective, a hurdled has been cleared and the greenback has pushed through critical resistance among important pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF). The outlook for interest rates and fiscal health has improved markedly. Now what is needed is a meaningful revival of risk trends – specifically risk aversion. The capital markets have climbed steadily over the past two weeks despite burgeoning troubles for financial stability, speculative inflows and stable economic growth. Any number of catalysts can force a reversal; but there are two threats that standout above the rest. The most pervasive risk comes from Greece and the European Union. If the member economy’s debt troubles be deemed insurmountable; it could ignite a localized financial crisis. Another interesting development to monitor is the Chinese open Monday morning. This market has been closed this past week for the Lunar New Year. Therefore, that speculative crowd has not be able to respond to the developments of the past week – including the PBoC’s decision to increase the reserve ratio after last Friday’s close. As for data, next week’s scheduled event risk likely doesn’t have the influence today’s CPI numbers had. The pullback in the annual headline reading (to 2.6 percent) and the core measure (to 1.6 percent) temper the hawkish implications of the discount rate hike. Of particular interest will be the testimony to the House on government spending from Treasury Secretary Geithner and monetary policy from Fed Chairman Bernanke scheduled for Wednesday.


Euro: PMI Data Keeps the Focus off Greece and On Growth
The euro marked a relatively strong performance Friday; but it is difficult to separate the influence of event risk from the tumble for the US dollar in this move. As the primary reserve alterative to the dollar, the greenback retracement bestowed considerable benefit on the euro. Nevertheless, there was notable data to ingest. The advance measures of the February manufacturing and service PMI readings provide a good update on first quarter growth. However, in this data, there was a sense of moderation. While the Euro Zone factory activity report advanced for a 12th consecutive month to a two-and-a-half year high, the service sector reading contracted for a second month in a row. This may be a manifestation of policy officials’ warning that growth would slow in 2010. Looking ahead to next week, the situation with Greece is still the top concern. Despite the market’s disregard for the economy’s troubles, the circumstances have actually deteriorated through the week.


British Pound Takes a Final Hit from the Economic Docket to End the Week
At the end of a week full of discouraging data, the pound would end with yet another discouraging indicator. The retail sales report for the United Kingdom has historically shown limited influence on price action due to its month-to-month volatility. Nonetheless, the 1.2 percent drop in receipts was a surprise as the first slip in five months and the sharpest decline in 11. From a fundamental perspective, this data reflects the spending habits of the consumer sector – the largest component of overall GDP. So, to take a tally of the data this week: unemployment has hit a multi-year high; the central bank has said it will ignore high inflation; and the consumer is not stepping up their support of a recovery that is losing its government backing piece by piece. Next week, the focus is on confidence figures and the details of the 4Q GDP revision.


Canadian Dollar Slowly Builds Strength as Retail Sales Data Adds to a Solid Fundamental Outlook
There is often little said about the Canadian dollar. Most of the time, the focus is on risk appetite trends or big-ticket indicators that could potentially tip a wavering economy into growth or a slump. However, support for the loonie has steadily improved over the weeks and months; and price action is reflecting this trend. Adding to the steady rise in inflation and influx of capital reported yesterday; the calendar posted its eighth consecutive advance in the leading indicators index and a commendable 0.4 percent jump in retail sales. Slow and steady…


Australian Dollar: How Much Influence does the Global Economy’s Health have on the RBA’s Decisions?
The initial shock of the RBA’s decision to hold its benchmark lending rate unchanged on February 1st is wearing off. Following up on the strong round of data (including the jump in employment) and hawkish rhetoric from the central bank’s quarterly policy statement, Governor Stevens spoke to the House early Friday morning. In his commentary, the central banker suggested that rates were still 50-100 bps below “normal.”


Link : http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...ains_Into.html

this chart may be shows it better

Also on G/U Resistance and Huge MACD Divergence on M5.


Im only trading EU, but always watching GU as an "indicator" too.

Daily and weekly are still strongly down, hence 1.3404

4 hour and daily are loosing downtrend strength slowly and a bounce back to 1.4069 is forming a possibility [Daily MACD]

My crystal ball does give me a chart with S/R lines which have been followed right from 5144

1. 5144
2. 4542
3. 4069
4. 3737
5. 3404
6. 2993
7. 2329

drawn as lines you will find why each is important on your charts.

Hi why 1.3404 ?

Could You please explain..


Thanks Paul