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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #9,261
  • Jan 22, 2010 2:43am Jan 22, 2010 2:43am
Quoting Timek
Hi smikester,

I think my understanding stems from the use of "on the day" as in:

Only be willing to buy a market if it is up on the day.
Only be willing to sell a market if it is down on the day.

I understood this to mean the trading day, i.e. from 6am GMT for the next 6-10 hours (time period depending on which of his posts you read).

I double-checked his chart from 31 Mar 2008 (for EURUSD) and confirmed that his Oanda charts are in either US CST or EST and therefore his white dotted lines cover the 24hours from 6am GMT....

Timek I have checked again and you are quite right. PC posted clarifying this to bluefish. Unfortunately FF is not allowing me to add a note to my posts or edit them in any way presumably because they are too old. Hope I haven't done too much damage...

Thanks for clarifying this for me and keep up the good work.

Mike
Gone to a better place
  • #9,262
  • Jan 22, 2010 5:16am Jan 22, 2010 5:16am
I can't remember if I've ever posted in this DIBS thread or not,
but there's been a nagging doubt about something.

Does PC ever say anything definite, pro or con, about trading
cross currency pairs?

...Or should I just go ahead and try it?

All of the charts of his seem to be either EUR/USD or Cable
hourly charts.

I realize he mentioned that a method should work across several
time frames (i.e., the 4H and 8H charts), but I haven't found much
mention of using it on cross currency pairs. What if your "hot hand"
for the day is the GBP/JPY? (Today, so far, it shows the biggest
movement...)

(FWIW, I searched this thread and the original DIBS thread for the
word "cross" and came up with previous few posts that refer to
currency pairs other than euro-dollar, cable, swissy and dollar-yen.)

Granted this may seem like a stupid question to the pros, but
"he who is afraid to ask is ashamed of learning." And I'm probably
not the only noobie in the crowd who wants to know...
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #9,263
  • Jan 22, 2010 6:03am Jan 22, 2010 6:03am
Quoting blunderbuss
Granted this may seem like a stupid question to the pros, but
"he who is afraid to ask is ashamed of learning." And I'm probably
not the only noobie in the crowd who wants to know...
The only stupid question is when it doesn't get asked, or something like that. I seem to remember PC liking small ranges - i.e. a small inside bar - and small spreads. I'll leave the rest to work out for yourself.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,264
  • Jan 22, 2010 7:16am Jan 22, 2010 7:16am
Quoting blunderbuss
I can't remember if I've ever posted in this DIBS thread or not,
but there's been a nagging doubt about something.

Does PC ever say anything definite, pro or con, about trading
cross currency pairs?

[font=Palatino Linotype][size=3][color=darkred]...Or should I...
Good ole smikester got a good point Trading DIBs is about picking setups which present with usually small SLs (around 20-30pips).... and big money to pump the engines.... that's why, IMO, PC stated that it was used only on the majors (where big money is)... but I can recall Jim (jarro, OP) using it really well with GBP/JPY, for instance... take a look at his posts and you'll find great cross trades....

Cheers!

HT

(geeez... here I am posting here again.... )
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #9,265
  • Feb 1, 2010 3:53am Feb 1, 2010 3:53am
Hey guys, any of you still trading this?

Today is my first take on this method - I'm looking to spend the next 4 weeks forward testing with a 1% risk per trade.
  • #9,266
  • Feb 1, 2010 2:21pm Feb 1, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting MattW
Hey guys, any of you still trading this?

Today is my first take on this method - I'm looking to spend the next 4 weeks forward testing with a 1% risk per trade.

Hey mattW welcome to the thread.
can i ask if you havd backtested your theory of 1% risk per trade?
if not why not use that 4 weeks doing that rigidly, so you can be confident enough in the method to not just forward test it but trade it.
I am not saying it cant be done or you shouldn't do it, i am just saying from my limited experience the way i am comfortable trading my version of dibs 1 % per trade would get me into a bit of a pickle at times.
Matt if you have done some backtesting and are confident your way is right for you then i appologise for sticking my nose in.
i just felt the need to say something so as maybe to induce some thought before blindly going into possibly loosing money by way of over extending yourself, and thus blaming it all on this method of entry rather than the lack of good sound money management.

cheers
Geoff
  • #9,267
  • Feb 4, 2010 5:38am Feb 4, 2010 5:38am
Hey Geoff,

It's good to see notes of caution so no need to apologise! There are a lot of newbie system hoppers who need these sorts of messages to bring them back to earth (if they would but take note).

As for me, I have looked at the charts and am aware of the win-rate for taking every single trade. However I am taking these with discretion based on my approach to PA so anticipate improving on the base-line. This is somewhat harder to back-test of course but I am confident enough to take 1% on forward testing (about half my normal risk) as I'm not new to IBs, just the way Peter plays them here (attempting to build large positions with runners).

Although I don't anticipate it all falling apart, I am trading other PA approaches that serve me well and they will carry me should I have a serious string of losers. So far, I'm at around break-even with the few trades I've taken this week and no open positions - sadly no runners this week the markets have been too sideways.

It's all good
  • #9,268
  • Feb 5, 2010 9:13am Feb 5, 2010 9:13am
I don't remember if Peter said anything about whether he changes his approach on NFP days. It seems wise to me to avoid this method on such days, as markets will naturally consolidate prior to the announcement, giving valid setups, but the announcement is prone to violently move in one or more directions which will stop out the majority of breakout-based orders.
  • #9,269
  • Feb 5, 2010 2:04pm Feb 5, 2010 2:04pm
Crocodiles (Traders) don´t eat as much as hot blooded predators, like lions or tigers. They can live perfectly with one kilogram of meat per day, and they can spend months and even one year without any food.

However, they usually eat as much as they can if they find a good source of food, simply because they never know when the next big meal will show up!


are u ready to trade DIBS?
  • #9,270
  • Feb 10, 2010 4:17am Feb 10, 2010 4:17am
I wonder if different times of the year are more profitable than others. Or do markets even have seasons with very clearly defined market conditions...

It certainly seems that the period of volatility seen when the first cable snapshots were taken at the start of this thread were a lot more profitable than the current cable chart - where almost every trade got to 1R whereas now 90% do not make that target without stopping out first.
  • #9,271
  • Feb 10, 2010 9:30am Feb 10, 2010 9:30am
According to my plan I only enter a DIB if it has not traded under mother bar(short), to the exact pip. I wonder if I am being too strick? Does anyone have any feed back as to what "wiggle" room is workable?
Thanks so much
  • #9,272
  • Feb 11, 2010 1:42am Feb 11, 2010 1:42am
Quoting blunderbuss
Does PC ever say anything definite, pro or con, about trading
cross currency pairs?
I've studied PC's posts across the forum. He has never said not to trade any cross pairs. In some replies he posted that he prefer to buy EUR/USD over selling USD/CHF when EUR/USD is stronger in an uptrend than the weakness of USD/CHF in a downtrend. He never said not to trade cross pairs. That's the fact.
Now my opinion: he trades major pairs in many of his example trades, maybe just because the lower cost per trade that will affect risk/reward ratio. Cross pairs have bigger spread with not so bigger volatility.

rgrds,
darma
  • #9,273
  • Edited Feb 12, 2010 12:57am Feb 11, 2010 1:48am | Edited Feb 12, 2010 12:57am
Quoting cc1
According to my plan I only enter a DIB if it has not traded under mother bar(short), to the exact pip. I wonder if I am being too strick? Does anyone have any feed back as to what "wiggle" room is workable?
Thanks so much
From what I've read in his posts, PC sells 1 pip below the IB bar's low, or buy 1 pip+spread above IB bar's high.
(this is true for bid-only chart. When having a mid-price chart like what we can see on some platforms, this rule should be adjusted).
In my opinion, adding 1-2 more pips to filter broker's data variance would be a wise thing to do.
  • #9,274
  • Feb 11, 2010 4:31am Feb 11, 2010 4:31am
why are so many posts guessing mr. crown ist doing this and mr. crown is doing that...what a bullshit.

he is a human being with a brain thinking.

u got also a brain to think and come to your own conclusions.
let us know about this and let mr. crown speak for his own!
  • #9,275
  • Feb 12, 2010 2:15am Feb 12, 2010 2:15am
Quoting RussiaTrader
why are so many posts guessing mr. crown ist doing this and mr. crown is doing that...what a bullshit.

he is a human being with a brain thinking.

u got also a brain to think and come to your own conclusions.
let us know about this and let mr. crown speak for his own!
LOL Well said
  • #9,276
  • Feb 16, 2010 2:56pm Feb 16, 2010 2:56pm
most people don't want to work it out for themselves the hard way. they just want a system to make money....it just doesn't work like that though !!!
  • #9,277
  • Feb 21, 2010 5:17am Feb 21, 2010 5:17am
Quoting advfntrader
most people don't want to work it out for themselves the hard way. they just want a system to make money....it just doesn't work like that though !!!
There isn't a lot to work out.

DIBS is a break even strategy in the long run. (Although there may be some decent runs within this time).

You can have the best money management, discipline and Karma in the world, if the method does not have a positive expectation, then it is a waste of time.
  • #9,278
  • Feb 21, 2010 5:40am Feb 21, 2010 5:40am
Quoting highneb
There isn't a lot to work out.

DIBS is a break even strategy in the long run. (Although there may be some decent runs within this time).

You can have the best money management, discipline and Karma in the world, if the method does not have a positive expectation, then it is a waste of time.
So you're saying Peter lied when he said he'd traded it profitably for over 10 years?
  • #9,279
  • Feb 21, 2010 5:52am Feb 21, 2010 5:52am
Quoting highneb
There isn't a lot to work out.

[font=&quot]DIBS is a break even strategy in the long run. (Although there may be some decent runs within this time).
How do you know that?

Myself just discovered this simple method and had a chance to back-test it during this weekend, results looks really good and waiting for a week start to demo it in real-time. According to me it works perfectly in a trend. Of course you need to apply couple filters and find an optimal exit strategy to make this system work. Patience and plenty of break-evens must do their job in growing your account, in fact slowly but steady.

With Great regard,

Tingus
  • #9,280
  • Feb 21, 2010 9:26am Feb 21, 2010 9:26am
Quoting highneb
...DIBS is a break even strategy in the long run. (Although there may be some decent runs within this time)...
yes, thats the point! u got it!
for example u make 100 trades and for the 98 trades its a breakeven strategy.

just 2 trades make decent runs and THESE 2 TRADES will make u some money.
if u miss them, then u will go breakeven!
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