Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1591 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"? 28 replies

How do you see trading - Do you see it as a means to an end? 12 replies

how long do you expect to trade? 10 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #31,801
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:32am Feb 19, 2010 5:32am
Quoting Gladis Night
I guess you have been busy. Trading week green
Yes I have sweetie...

This was a test week for me between two approaches I've narowed my method to. The first half of the week with one method was a 300 pip gain. The second half with the other lost all of it...LOL

So it's been a good investment week that will end around BE.

So good to hear you're green Gladis... ...Very cool!!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #31,802
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:39am Feb 19, 2010 5:39am
Quoting albchr
Yes I have sweetie...

This was a test week for me between two approaches I've narowed my method to. The first half of the week with one method was a 300 pip gain. The second half with the other lost all of it...LOL

So it's been a good investment week that will end around BE.

So good to hear you're green Gladis... ...Very cool!!
Great to hear about first half sorry about second but sounds like you learned some good
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #31,803
  • Feb 19, 2010 8:15am Feb 19, 2010 8:15am
Pretty quite in here for a Friday.....let's party
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #31,804
  • Feb 19, 2010 8:39am Feb 19, 2010 8:39am
Quoting bkg102665
Pretty quite in here for a Friday.....let's party
were you able to get a few off that support @1.5340? it didnt pick me up but i woke up shortly after +45
  • #31,805
  • Feb 19, 2010 8:45am Feb 19, 2010 8:45am
Quoting 1pip wonder
were you able to get a few off that support @1.5340? it didnt pick me up but i woke up shortly after +45
No I would not put a pending order in because the market is so crazy right now trying to figure this rate icrease out, well maybe the market is not crazy more like I was just scared I guess.That was a great trade on your part though.....
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #31,806
  • Feb 19, 2010 11:51am Feb 19, 2010 11:51am
Quoting bkg102665
No I would not put a pending order in because the market is so crazy right now trying to figure this rate icrease out, well maybe the market is not crazy more like I was just scared I guess.That was a great trade on your part though.....
i would agree BKG.
all the standard tech trades right now may not have much weight to them since the FED fouled everything up.

I've been trading great for the last two days but it's been tedious. Just when you think the market is shifting (even temporarily) it's dumps the other way. My tradees have been exceedingly cautious.
  • #31,807
  • Feb 19, 2010 2:42pm Feb 19, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting dakrusha
i would agree BKG.
all the standard tech trades right now may not have much weight to them since the FED fouled everything up.

I've been trading great for the last two days but it's been tedious. Just when you think the market is shifting (even temporarily) it's dumps the other way. My tradees have been exceedingly cautious.

dakrusha, have you been trading the bounces off of the 5 and 10 on the 15min?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #31,808
  • Feb 19, 2010 5:10pm Feb 19, 2010 5:10pm
Quoting MarcVUM
dakrusha, have you been trading the bounces off of the 5 and 10 on the 15min?
yes i trade a 5M chart reversals, bounces, SR levels.
  • #31,809
  • Feb 20, 2010 2:03am Feb 20, 2010 2:03am
I have a question that I need some response to. Does anyone pay attention to these posts? F_ck, even if you don't read my commentary, you should atleast download the chart, find your own levels of S/R and understand why you have found the levels that you have. Can everyone see where price moved to this week and what level of support I have on this monthly chart? Everyone should have been looking to be a buyer when she got into the 53xx's. Will she stay here, will she bounce? I don't know, no one does, start going down on your lower TF's and read what the candles are saying.

Quoting eohater
As our monthly candle is nearing it's final burn, we should all take notice. The working monthly candle is indecisive in it's current state. This monthly candle has a big impact upon a short position I've been holding. As the current PA is showing, we are bearish from the prior 2 closed monthly candles. Take notice of the pin, followed by the full bearish candle that closed below the bottom wick of the pin. The working monthly candle has done it's retest of the pins closed price of 645x and the sellers have pushed price back down. If this monthly...
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #31,810
  • Feb 20, 2010 2:08am Feb 20, 2010 2:08am
Here's another! I was more precise with this chart on the level of 535x. Again, I never get responses on these, it's like the post is made, looked at once and never looked at again. I'm not boasting about my charts or levels or look and see what I said. I'm frustrated that so many people forget to look up and see the forest through the trees. Where will she go? I don't know, but I know what my charts are telling me.

Quoting eohater
Here's my weekly. We closed the weekly with a bearish full bodied candle which keeps us on track for a further bearish move. We closed under the wick of the weekly candle from back the week of the 12th Oct 2009. Next stop shows me 535x. Now, this will not be in a straight line, I can see it moving north before continuing the venture south. Look for sellers in the 571x area to 583x.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #31,811
  • Feb 20, 2010 2:55am Feb 20, 2010 2:55am
Quoting eohater
Here's another! I was more precise with this chart on the level of 535x. Again, I never get responses on these, it's like the post is made, looked at once and never looked at again. I'm not boasting about my charts or levels or look and see what I said. I'm frustrated that so many people forget to look up and see the forest through the trees. Where will she go? I don't know, but I know what my charts are telling me.
Sorry I don't get a chance to post much but in agreement weekly chart following to pattern. I think some get so used to the lower time frames they forget to look at the higher to help project the time it will take to reach certain long term price levels. For example the monthly is still quite bearish. I would think we get a nice test of the 149.00 area 61.8 Fibro. Maybe a quick shot to 148.50 with a daily and weekly pin in that area. I agree u have to use the higher to project time. then some ranging for summer. Take care bro. will pop in again.
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  • #31,812
  • Feb 20, 2010 3:00am Feb 20, 2010 3:00am
For those who want to worry about the Federal Funds rate and what it means. Here is a chart for you. You might also want to follow the link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fe..._effective.svg

Now, this is what has me pissed off right now. Here is a quote: "Raising the federal funds rate will dissuade banks from taking out such inter-bank loans, which in turn will make cash that much harder to procure." Now, this quote comes from here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate

Then we have this: http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/19/news...bate/index.htm

Alright, I'm not here to say the rate should or should not be raised for the benefit of the US/Global Economy. I don't think really anyone would give a shit if a couple of other criteria are met: 1. JOBS, people need fucking jobs; 2. Did I mention JOBS?

Here we have a country, the US, that bailed out the US Banks (which were Federal Insured to begin with) with a shit pot of money. Some banks still fall from the result of the shrinking economy and the FDIC picks up their loss (wonder how much TARP money these banks got?). I challenge anyone to tell me how many of these banks were local vs. national banks. I don't know the number, I have a feeling though which number is going to be higher. There have been a lot of bank failures so I'm sure this data would be easily found. Another side bar here, go to the FDIC website: http://www.fdic.gov/ and find out for yourself how long they have to repay your loss in the event of a loss. You'll be surprised! Now, back to my original bitch! The banks that were saved, tightened their pockets and will only lend now to those with exceptional credit and assets. These people are far and few and becoming fewer. Did I mention people need jobs to pay their bills? So, the banks now will have to pay more to borrower from one another, which in turn means the banks WILL have to pass on that cost to the consumer and reduce their lending even more. So the consumer in the end is going to get the shaft again. Raising the bank rate is actually good for the US$. In simpilist terms, the rate of return is increased. Is it good for the US economy? I think the it's a little premature. I can see the US having 10-14% ARM's in the near future.

I'm getting off my soap box now.

EO
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Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #31,813
  • Feb 20, 2010 3:06am Feb 20, 2010 3:06am
Quoting eohater
For those who want to worry about the Federal Funds rate and what it means. Here is a chart for you. You might also want to follow the link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fe..._effective.svg

Now, this is what has me pissed off right now. Here is a quote: "Raising the federal funds rate will dissuade banks from taking out such inter-bank loans, which in turn will make cash that much harder to procure." Now, this quote comes from here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate

Then...
With the continued A paper only loans and constranints on B and C's will also put pressure on housing. Supply and demand if properties are not moving cuz people can't get loans values will stagnate and or drop again. HMMM bubble deja vu.
  • #31,814
  • Feb 20, 2010 3:17am Feb 20, 2010 3:17am
I always find your posts helpful in finding levels. I have got to the point where I put the levels on myself and I have a level at 1.5357 which when you posted yours just helped me confirm what I knew. BUT did I take notice of it yesterday and trust it NO, I didn't. Why didn't I? Because I took into account fundamentals from the news item the day before and shouldn't have. The one big sin you are always trying to knock into our heads I fell for.

Simple fact is, I didn't trust the charts, all day I could see it was going up and didn't take it, fearing the price action because it was moving with such intensity.

These 2 posts sum it up perfectly for me I think
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=31805
and the answer from bkg http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=31806
someone who trusted the charts and someone (along with me) who didn't.

You sound very frustrated and I can understand that, and we all need a kick in the butt sometimes to realise its all there for us to see if we only trust it.

The only time I find myself not having a very good week (or not as good as it could be) is when I slip. I won't be doing that again.

As far as your posts go, they are always appreciated and looked at and absorbed more than you know, its just being human we sometimes let other things get in the way.
  • #31,815
  • Feb 20, 2010 3:25am Feb 20, 2010 3:25am
Quoting eohater
Here's another! I was more precise with this chart on the level of 535x. Again, I never get responses on these, it's like the post is made, looked at once and never looked at again. I'm not boasting about my charts or levels or look and see what I said. I'm frustrated that so many people forget to look up and see the forest through the trees. Where will she go? I don't know, but I know what my charts are telling me.
HI EO.

I saw what u wrote and analyzed it properly. unfortunately, right before the movement down, the second wave took my SL (moved to BE asap) so i wasn't able to catch the movement down. It keeps happening over and over again unfortunately, and i am still stuck in the middle of this dilemma "move SL to BE as soon as possible or just leave it where i previously placed it and let it go... with the risk that my +10/15 pips (half position) could turn into a -30?".

still... not sure how to face it. I saw that about 30-40% of the times the PA would go against me and hit my SL, which is placed 2 times the distance where i cut half of my profit (just to make it clear: buy @ 1.5000, take off half position at 1.5010, and then PA hits my SL @1.4980). Till i get some confidence in my trades i won't be able to manage it properly, so i get my tiny 10 pips (half position) and miss the big movements

if u have any suggestion about it, it would be very helpful.

Have a great WE anyway
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #31,816
  • Feb 20, 2010 6:44am Feb 20, 2010 6:44am
Here's the best answer I can give you as to your SL getting hit after you take your position, book some profit and cover. Being that this is INTRADAY trading, get back in at a better price. You should be watching your charts and willing to get back in if our HTF S/R is in line. I know that I will take the same position multiple times where I will book some profit, cover, get stopped out and get in at a better price, book some profit, cover, get stopped out and get in again. Remember, we use our m15 for our entries and just because we might miss the first opportunity, we will usually get another opportunity thus why if you got it on the first PA presented and get stopped out, don't be afraid to take it again at a better price. No one ever went broke booking profit and covering. Just don't be afraid to get back in to get more profit.

Quoting dario1002
HI EO.

I saw what u wrote and analyzed it properly. unfortunately, right before the movement down, the second wave took my SL (moved to BE asap) so i wasn't able to catch the movement down. It keeps happening over and over again unfortunately, and i am still stuck in the middle of this dilemma "move SL to BE as soon as possible or just leave it where i previously placed it and let it go... with the risk that my +10/15 pips (half position) could turn into a -30?".

still... not sure how to face it. I saw that about 30-40% of the times the PA...
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #31,817
  • Feb 20, 2010 6:54am Feb 20, 2010 6:54am
Unfortunately, I am a little frustrated. I did not see last week or last month or really anytime this year that the markets have been challenging to trade. We get our levels, we watch our PA and trade regardless of noise. I will admit, the massive drop on the pound just before the US Session closed on Thursday was unexpected (but remember, we don't expect anything), the PA on the m15 showed that people should have been leaving the US Session with shorts in the 563x area and if your like many with 2 accounts, you would have longs from the 557x area, both positions covered and no worries.

Emotions are hard to control during trading! But they have to be repressed and the trades just have to be mechanical.

Quoting luckylady
I always find your posts helpful in finding levels. I have got to the point where I put the levels on myself and I have a level at 1.5357 which when you posted yours just helped me confirm what I knew. BUT did I take notice of it yesterday and trust it NO, I didn't. Why didn't I? Because I took into account fundamentals from the news item the day before and shouldn't have. The one big sin you are always trying to knock into our heads I fell for.

Simple fact is, I didn't trust the charts, all day I could see it was going up and didn't take it,...
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #31,818
  • Feb 20, 2010 7:10am Feb 20, 2010 7:10am
Quoting eohater
Unfortunately, I am a little frustrated....
I've lost count of the amount of times you've told me that And up to now I have taken it on board and I promise I've been doing it. Don't know what happened yesterday, looked scary all of a sudden but I will get back to taking no notice of noise.....
  • #31,819
  • Feb 20, 2010 7:19am Feb 20, 2010 7:19am
Quoting luckylady
I've lost count of the amount of times you've told me that And up to now I have taken it on board and I promise I've been doing it. Don't know what happened yesterday, looked scary all of a sudden but I will get back to taking no notice of noise.....
We have to respect the noise just before and during it's release. Noise does move the markets, I cannot deny that. But, usually, it moves the market to our next level of S/R where we can get in and make some nice pippage.

I took 5 different long positions on the pound after the close of the US Session on Thursday and booked profit on all of the positions. The last position I took at 65 after I booked some profit and covered ended up yielding me my 100 pipper. This show should help Dario understand what I mean about continuing to get back in.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #31,820
  • Feb 20, 2010 8:57am Feb 20, 2010 8:57am
Quoting eohater
Here's another! I was more precise with this chart on the level of 535x. Again, I never get responses on these, it's like the post is made, looked at once and never looked at again. I'm not boasting about my charts or levels or look and see what I said. I'm frustrated that so many people forget to look up and see the forest through the trees. Where will she go? I don't know, but I know what my charts are telling me.
It took a while to get to 5300 level didn't it bro ... like 8 months, but we nailed it
I got a lot of stick calling for that level mid last year, I plan on giving some back! Problem is .. I can't find those doubters .....

Cheers bro, hope you have a great trading week ahead of you. Good luck!
Thank You
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