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  • #198,941
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:30pm Feb 18, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting Clouds
I just thought it was crazy that someone from this thread would ask about certain levels from another person, without knowing how they came up with those levels. I couldn't help myself from commenting, but I wasn't trying to start anything. Gator is very nice to share his analysis, but for others to ask about them everyday is something else.
Very unfortunate people comments about one another & hurt personal image ,why not do about the analysis & improve. Anyway Cloud please do not it take it as such , some morons use to use thing this way all the time in this thread without keeping others in their mind. Just forget it , I think they doing as of habbit & actually trying improve the students in a punitive crude way. We may all need something to learn from them & they also improve " how to teach" themselves.
Take care ,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #198,942
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:32pm Feb 18, 2010 11:32pm
Ok so after lurking here for a long time now I figured I would join the fray and ask a question instead of soaking up the information like as sponge as I have done in the past.

Considering we are at the end of the week, and it would appear that the last move south was mostly predicated by the after-hours news, or at least after the big boys had closed up shop on the east coast, something occured to me. I read a lot about people being unwilling to hold a position over the weekend, which typically means you see a small retracement towards the end of the trading day each week. Assuming that we continue to hover near the 1.348xx level, and that the boys across the pond don't wake up and push us back north before then, it would seem to make sense that the price would remain relatively level until next week.

While I am no chart master, my seven year old walked by me tonight, took one look at my screen and said, "I think its going down daddy". I tend to agree with her in the long term so that being the case should we reach the 1.3550 level again prior to 9:00 EST I believe I will add another short to my positions. I have some very small longs between 1.3480 and 1.3500, aiming for small targets on retraces, those will get killed off if we break below the 1.344xx area.

So all of this leads me to my question, does anyone else look at the last 2-3 hours of the trading day on friday and think that simply putting a small long in at a predetermined time (assuming PA is relatively flat) and letting the short coverings drive the price up a few pips is a sound endeavor?
  • #198,943
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:34pm Feb 18, 2010 11:34pm
Quoting malcolmb14
bear flag 15 min may be breaking ..... 1.3450 support
how do you measure this please guide... Thanks
EUR/USD
  • #198,944
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:35pm Feb 18, 2010 11:35pm
Quoting Gawdfather
Very interested to see what the London-based hedge funds do with E/U in about an hour/hour and a half. Could get a little crazy.
Heh. They might be getting started early.
  • #198,945
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:36pm Feb 18, 2010 11:36pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Yes it's a weekly chart....
hhmmm Thanks but how to find where is the trend going?? any indicator?
EUR/USD
  • #198,946
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:39pm Feb 18, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting malcolmb14
bear flag 15 min may be breaking ..... 1.3450 support
Thanks , already broke below ? for next level 1.3422/28.But may also play differently and anyway bear continuation in nature.
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #198,947
  • Edited 11:54pm Feb 18, 2010 11:42pm | Edited 11:54pm
Quoting Noordin
how do you measure this please guide... Thanks
See... Didn't confirm just yet, and this is a 5m chart so you can see it more clearly.


EDIT: Also you can look at the Usd/Jpy on the 1hr right now to see what one looks like. Look to see what happened on the last bull flag on the UJ.
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  • #198,948
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:50pm Feb 18, 2010 11:50pm
Quoting Sooner
Ok so after lurking here for a long time now I figured I would join the fray and ask a question instead of soaking up the information like as sponge as I have done in the past.

Considering we are at the end of the week, and it would appear that the last move south was mostly predicated by the after-hours news, or at least after the big boys had closed up shop on the east coast, something occured to me. I read a lot about people being unwilling to hold a position over the weekend, which typically means you see a small retracement towards the end...
Hello sooner and welcome. Friday is crazy. I try not to leave an open position over the weekend, but will depending where the price is and how I think Monday will start. Of course there is risk of weekend news.

I don't normally look to get in at all the last 2-3 hours of a friday. If anything I'm looking for the exit door if I'm still in. But if you pick up on something maybe it's worth a shot. Just use proper money management, as always advised.
  • #198,949
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:53pm Feb 18, 2010 11:53pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Hello sooner and welcome. Friday is crazy. I try not to leave an open position over the weekend, but will depending where the price is and how I think Monday will start. Of course there is risk of weekend news.

I don't normally look to get in at all the last 2-3 hours of a friday. If anything I'm looking for the exit door if I'm still in. But if you pick up on something maybe it's worth a shot. Just use proper money management, as always advised.
With respect to this, an interesting question arises. I happen to be writing my trading-plan right now, and I wonder how people plan the monday. Is the monday a "hop-in"-day or is the plan based on the preceding friday including weekend-data?
  • #198,950
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:53pm Feb 18, 2010 11:53pm
Quoting fontu
Thanks , already broke below ? for next level 1.3422/28.But may also play differently and anyway bear continuation in nature.
fontu
pardon my ignorance, but i thought a true break of a flag would be at point A in your chart?

---------------------

playing 1.348 right now. curious if they're setting it as the new resistance.
  • #198,951
  • Feb 18, 2010 11:58pm Feb 18, 2010 11:58pm
things are still quiet...
  • #198,952
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:01am Feb 19, 2010 12:01am
Quoting mmccormac
See... Didn't confirm just yet, and this is a 5m chart so you can see it more clearly.


EDIT: Also you can look at the Usd/Jpy on the 1hr right now to see what one looks like. Look to see what happened on the last bull flag on the UJ.
Thanks dude, is USD/JPY and EUR/USD works wise versa ?? means if one is up then another is down .. is it like that buddy?
EUR/USD
  • #198,953
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:06am Feb 19, 2010 12:06am
Quoting Noordin
Thanks dude, is USD/JPY and EUR/USD works wise versa ?? means if one is up then another is down .. is it like that buddy?

No they are not an inverse correlation but USD strength will move both... So since USD/JPY would go UP on USD strength and eur/USD would go down on USD strength you could say that.

You can get a chart on correlations but if you're looking for an inverse to the EUR/USD it's the USD/CHF... Somewhere around 95% long term (When the Swiss are not trying to devalue their currency).
  • #198,954
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:10am Feb 19, 2010 12:10am
Quoting mmccormac
No they are not an inverse correlation but USD strength will move both... So since USD/JPY would go UP on USD strength and eur/USD would go down on USD strength you could say that.

You can get a chart on correlations but if you're looking for an inverse to the EUR/USD it's the USD/CHF... Somewhere around 95% long term (When the Swiss are not trying to devalue their currency).
ok, Thanks buddy, can you also please guide me that how to find where the strength (buy/ sell) or volume is means how to find the trend. Thanks a lot as i m learning a lot from you.
EUR/USD
  • #198,955
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:11am Feb 19, 2010 12:11am
Quoting kasper
pardon my ignorance, but i thought a true break of a flag would be at point A in your chart?

---------------------

playing 1.348 right now. curious if they're setting it as the new resistance.
you can take this extreme coservatively , already break to the flag/wedge at 1.3478 , next level 1.3459 & last a 1.3444 but if take 44 level then you have smooth run till 1.3428/22 only & expecting more bounce than this 44 .and if this small break down not hold then from about 59 can again go 1.3542 before further break down .for this small moves only doing scalping,any pip + will do.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #198,956
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:11am Feb 19, 2010 12:11am
Quoting Noordin
how do you measure this please guide... Thanks
seems buyers 1.3460 for now .....

but treating this as bear flag


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  • #198,957
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:13am Feb 19, 2010 12:13am
Quoting fontu
you can take this extreme coservatively , already break to the flag/wedge at 1.3478 , next level 1.3459 & last a 1.3444 but if take 44 level then you have smooth run till 1.3428/22 only & expecting more bounce than this 44 .and if this small break down not hold then from about 59 can again go 1.3542 before further break down .for this small moves only doing scalping,any pip + will do.
fontu
helpfull , i placed a short at 540 now at 538 .. Thanks Fontu
EUR/USD
  • #198,958
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:16am Feb 19, 2010 12:16am
Quoting Noordin
ok, Thanks buddy, can you also please guide me that how to find where the strength (buy/ sell) or volume is means how to find the trend. Thanks a lot as i m learning a lot from you.
This may sound insulting but it's not suppose to...

Simply check your charts... Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4hr, 1hr.

Now if the price is moving down on all it's a sell, and if it's moving up on all then it's a buy. Really what helped me was when I learned to check the monthly, weekly, & daily charts... Then I would simply look for an entry based on support/resistance and enter WITH THE TREND.

As far as volume I'm pretty sure there is no way to gauge it accurately in the currency markets... You can kind of do it with a Futures platform since you can see the number of contracts moving in the pits but really as far as I know there is no great way to do it. I will admit I don't use any indicators so I won't be helpful in this aspect. I just watch price and patterns and look for low risk high opportunity trades. It pays to wait for only the good ones.
  • #198,959
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:19am Feb 19, 2010 12:19am
We have a break on my lines but we've still got that daily low to deal with.

FYI- This Flag break is not confirmed just yet... I wait for a closed candle.
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  • #198,960
  • Feb 19, 2010 12:23am Feb 19, 2010 12:23am
There we go, that was a break again of S1...just moved stops to +5, +10 and left the other stop alone up at 3529...
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