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  • #198,861
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:05pm Feb 18, 2010 9:05pm
Guess it will have to follow sooner or later...maybe I am naive or dumb but it look that way to me...
again maybe a 1 "shock" in a day is better than 2 "shocks" coming together in a single day...just my 2 cents worth.

Quoting malcolmb14
so if the economy is so great why only raise the discount rate and not bank rate ?
  • #198,862
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:06pm Feb 18, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting Ay0013
I think market is ready to correct itself soon.
Rising of interest rate is actually a sign that the economy is doing ok and that is why the Fed do it. Personally I see it going north petty soon.
Just my two cents worth.
the market went up after the jobs report.
unemployment up means no rate hike.
no rate hike means stock market up.

the discount window was just a OPEX manipulation.
i don't think we will see the FED Funds rate hike this year.

We are in Greenspan v.2.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #198,863
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:06pm Feb 18, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting uraceulose
imo the fed funds rate will follow...give it a quarter but i'll take the bet that they raise the rate before the end of this yr in the states...

edit:reasoning is banks and us can borrow pretty cheap as it is, we all know this. credit sucks but if you have it, paper is cheap and easy to borrow right now. They can only keep trying to prop us up w/ low rates before major inflation kicks in (even worse than it's been)...dollar will keep going up until euro issues go away...which may never happen

I think the discount rate hike is a little tester and i agree 100 %
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  • #198,864
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:07pm Feb 18, 2010 9:07pm
US futures look promising for more $$ strength tomorrow, what will the euros do while I sleep? Out of this pair for now, short U/J, would say there is a correlation between pairs but that would be a lie, U/J does what U/J wants to do regardless of everything else, just playing a major trendline and 200 day MA, time will tell.

See you on the flip side
This is what awesome feels like
  • #198,865
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:07pm Feb 18, 2010 9:07pm
If someone understands what gator is saying to me then could you help out.....

Is he saying to look at 3484 as a top now or support? Price keeps going thru it.

I was looking for a long position today and got stopped out twice......just was looking for a retracement and a bounce off the 3484 number and got stopped twice trying to get a position... I had two good entires... I thought...3500 and 3472....
  • #198,866
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:08pm Feb 18, 2010 9:08pm
Quoting uraceulose
imo the fed funds rate will follow...give it a quarter but i'll take the bet that they raise the rate before the end of this yr in the states...

edit:reasoning is banks and us can borrow pretty cheap as it is, we all know this. credit sucks but if you have it, paper is cheap and easy to borrow right now. They can only keep trying to prop us up w/ low rates before major inflation kicks in (even worse than it's been)...dollar will keep going up until euro issues go away...which may never happen
not in 2010.

your have to see unemployment peak. and then come down.
"extended period" means at list 6 monts.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #198,867
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:08pm Feb 18, 2010 9:08pm
Quoting deuce
Discount rate is not the Fed Funds rate. Fed Funds rate will not rise till at least mid 2011.
Go read that post again...he said NO RATES FOR USD WILL GO UP IN 2010... is the discount rate not related to the US dollar or am I missing something? I'm not bashing sky, I love reading his opinions because they are usually the opposite of my own and it helps me make sure I'm not missing something...I'm just pointing out, expect the unexpected...anything can and eventually will happen in forex markets.
  • #198,868
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:11pm Feb 18, 2010 9:11pm
Quoting IMARICH1
So am I looking for price to go up past 3484 and it will be support now or exactly what i am trading short or long...the only reason i ask is because I have some well known traders (good) who were of the belief we are headed for a healthy retracement up to 1.38 or 139....just want some better direction....

Thanks
You are talking NUTS my boy. Anyway, may I know who is the Well known traders was that?

Very if I hurt your feelings, but please accept that it wont going to be happen!
  • #198,869
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:17pm Feb 18, 2010 9:17pm
Quoting forex888
You are talking NUTS my boy. Anyway, may I know who is the Well known traders was that?
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  • #198,870
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:17pm Feb 18, 2010 9:17pm
Maybe you are right....then now it get me thinking...what are they brewing again? Any insights?

Quoting malcolmb14
I think the discount rate hike is a little tester and i agree 100 %
  • #198,871
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:20pm Feb 18, 2010 9:20pm
For those of you liking the long play off the pivot... 2 lot trade set up... use tight stop since counter trend. Move stop loss on 2nd lot to BE +1 at lot 1 tp.
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  • #198,872
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:20pm Feb 18, 2010 9:20pm
I agree Mal, too risky for a long despite the fact a retracement can come anytime, just keep shorting the pop ups.
Former Trader Of the Year of the 95% losing club! Retired
  • #198,873
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:21pm Feb 18, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting DMA Trader
not in 2010.

your have to see unemployment peak. and then come down.
"extended period" means at list 6 monts.
6 months from now is still 2010... August to be exact.
  • #198,874
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:21pm Feb 18, 2010 9:21pm
Looks like there's a lot of confusion.

The discount rate IS NOT the Federal funds rate.

The only really relevant rate to the economy is the Fed fund rate, and this one will not move before long...
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #198,875
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:21pm Feb 18, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting DMA Trader
We are in Greenspan v.2.
No. More like "Paul Volcker - The Final Chapter". USD strength has been in evidence since they let him out of the closet - about late November.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #198,876
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:23pm Feb 18, 2010 9:23pm
Federal Reserve Goals

The goals of monetary policy include:
- maximum employment
- stable prices
- moderate long-term interest rates
- promotion of sustainable economic growth

--------------------------------------------------------------
Policy of various nations
Australia - Inflation targeting
Brazil - Inflation targeting
Canada - Inflation targeting
Chile - Inflation targeting
China - Monetary targeting and targets a currency basket
Eurozone - Inflation targeting
Hong Kong - Currency board (fixed to US dollar)
India - Multiple indicator approach
New Zealand - Inflation targeting
Norway - Inflation targeting
Singapore - Exchange rate targeting
South Africa - Inflation targeting
Switzerland - Inflation targeting
Turkey - Inflation targeting
United Kingdom - Inflation targeting, alongside secondary targets on 'output and employment'.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #198,877
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:23pm Feb 18, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IikM0jLbMUQ
Miss tha important part
  • #198,878
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:24pm Feb 18, 2010 9:24pm
Hello 4 all,
I'm new here.

Would anybody know where Eu going right now
  • #198,879
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:26pm Feb 18, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
6 months from now is still 2010... August to be exact.
Well, they didn't drop the "extended period of time" I don't think they will drop that next time. one clue is that last time, one of them said that it is time to take that phrase out.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #198,880
  • Feb 18, 2010 9:29pm Feb 18, 2010 9:29pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I was looking for a long position today and got stopped out twice...
There's your problem, but I'm sure you'll keep buying and getting stopped out.
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