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  • #197,761
  • Feb 17, 2010 9:52pm Feb 17, 2010 9:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
your preaching to the choir

LOL... not sure I'm with you, but anyway I see 1.32 at the bottom of this channel and I believe the upper yellow line will hold for now. My view which remains to see.


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  • #197,762
  • Feb 17, 2010 9:52pm Feb 17, 2010 9:52pm
Quoting realjumper
'Soon' is a relative term Chicky
Real, I mean by summer 2010.

I am of the opinion that it will not change its down direction until late 2010. At most bulls may expect some ranging between 1.3000 and 1.4000 levels. However, I doubt we may see parity, unless this recession takes a second and stronger dip. Good time to START buying would be below 1.3000 especially near 1.2400. Even if it continues going down even from there, a healthy bounce may help off-loading 50% of the positions to enjoy a free ride on the rest upto whereever it gets. But we are still far far away from this scenario.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #197,763
  • Feb 17, 2010 9:53pm Feb 17, 2010 9:53pm
Quoting maurofx
Well my friends...I've set my trade. Already short, SL@3600, TP@3490. Right now price is flirting with the upper line of the channell. I'm out to party a little with the gang!! See you all in a couple of hours!!!
Good trades to all!!!
My idea is not disrespect your thoughts, but i think is not a good idea to go short at 1.3600, because of a 15min tf. You should go short but higher. We are definitely going to retrace at least to 1.3640 1.3660, but i think is going to be a good retracement at least for the whole week now...but on a lower speed. ON a long run, im short. But today i think we are going to see an upmove at least on london session. Good luck, going to bed for until london opens i guess
  • #197,764
  • Feb 17, 2010 9:56pm Feb 17, 2010 9:56pm
Quoting Chicky
Real, I mean by summer 2010.

I am of the opinion that it will not change its down direction until late 2010. At most bulls may expect some ranging between 1.3000 and 1.4000 levels. However, I doubt we may see parity, unless this recession takes a second and stronger dip. Good time to START buying would be below 1.3000 especially near 1.2400. Even if it continues going down even from there, a healthy bounce may help off-loading 50% of the positions to enjoy a free ride on the rest upto whereever it gets. But we are still far far away from this...
That's what I mean Chicky...it's relative....it's already summer 2010 here!!!

But I agree with your analysis, I know it's next to impossible to forecast so far out, but I wouldn't be at all suprised to see this in the low 1.2xxx's in the months ahead
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #197,765
  • Feb 17, 2010 9:57pm Feb 17, 2010 9:57pm
Pretty frustrating to scalp this but it goes.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #197,766
  • Feb 17, 2010 9:57pm Feb 17, 2010 9:57pm
Quoting enterfx
LOL... not sure I'm with you, but anyway I see 1.32 at the bottom of this channel and I believe the upper yellow line will hold for now. My view which remains to see.


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  • #197,767
  • Feb 17, 2010 9:59pm Feb 17, 2010 9:59pm
Bearish engulfing candle on daily.
  • #197,768
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:00pm Feb 17, 2010 10:00pm
For everybody attention,

Mr Warren Buffet bought Euro for long term investment.

Without doubt.
  • #197,769
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:00pm Feb 17, 2010 10:00pm
Quoting Clouds
I approve this message.
That's my sig
  • #197,770
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:08pm Feb 17, 2010 10:08pm
Quoting realjumper
That's what I mean Chicky...it's relative....it's already summer 2010 here!!!

But I agree with your analysis, I know it's next to impossible to forecast so far out, but I wouldn't be at all suprised to see this in the low 1.2xxx's in the months ahead
Real, I have very strong reasons be believe this market will remain volatile during 2010 and things will get back to normal in 2011......... did I say very strong reasons?.

I feel more comfortable in looking far ahead and very uneasy in playing shorter moves.

On mega timeframes one is able to find out the reasons behind a move but on shorter timeframe many times reasons are not known until move is significantly over and therefore I feel blind folded while trying to play short-term moves.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #197,771
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:11pm Feb 17, 2010 10:11pm
Quoting Chicky
Real, I mean by summer 2010.

I am of the opinion that it will not change its down direction until late 2010. At most bulls may expect some ranging between 1.3000 and 1.4000 levels. However, I doubt we may see parity, unless this recession takes a second and stronger dip. Good time to START buying would be below 1.3000 especially near 1.2400. Even if it continues going down even from there, a healthy bounce may help off-loading 50% of the positions to enjoy a free ride on the rest upto whereever it gets. But we are still far far away from this...
bulls/bears.. i think the term is misused in forex. in stocks sure its controlled by speculation.. nobodys buying a stock to have for dinner or drive around. but in currency this is what exactly controls it.. sure a bank may hold its current forex paper till a better price appears.. maybe a couple hundreth of a cent. but unlike stock the length of time is nothing compared. a bank is not the norm compared to a stockholder. a bank more then likey cant hold a days trades waiting for a better price. unless it has deep pockets.. because all in money goes out for the opposite side of the pair. if a bank could do this one bad minute could break them. anway other then this we traders unlike stock have no control.. it would even be hard for the large bank to control.. commerce controls it. manipulation in currency would be easier done with oil/gold ect. or by a bank or 2 just opening up a little late..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #197,772
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:14pm Feb 17, 2010 10:14pm
what about this?
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  • #197,773
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:14pm Feb 17, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting forex888
For everybody attention,

Mr Warren Buffet bought Euro for long term investment.

Without doubt.
berkshire was down graded. last week
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #197,774
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:19pm Feb 17, 2010 10:19pm
Quoting Chicky
Real, I have very strong reasons be believe this market will remain volatile during 2010 and things will get back to normal in 2011......... did I say very strong reasons?.

I feel more comfortable in looking far ahead and very uneasy in playing shorter moves.

On mega timeframes one is able to find out the reasons behind a move but on shorter timeframe many times reasons are not known until move is significantly over and therefore I feel blind folded while trying to play short-term moves.
oh and the point is u.s. consumer isnt comming back to buy europes products at same rate as before.. like our grand parents many of us will be more frugal. buy more domestic products.. europe has lost market share.. china and s. korea have already filled the void. less commerce means weaker euro..long term cycle.. when they get cheap enough we will buy again. lots of things not included
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #197,775
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:24pm Feb 17, 2010 10:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
bulls/bears.. i think the term is misused in forex. in stocks sure its controlled by speculation.. nobodys buying a stock to have for dinner or drive around. but in currency this is what exactly controls it.. sure a bank may hold its current forex paper till a better price appears.. maybe a couple hundreth of a cent. but unlike stock the length of time is nothing compared. a bank is not the norm compared to a stockholder. a bank more then likey cant hold a days trades waiting for a better price. unless it has deep pockets.. because all in money...
Gator, you hit the bull's eye.

Since small traders have no or little access to previledged information, they cannot possibly compete with banks / financial institutions (big-dogs) on these timeframes.

I always put your above thoughts in these words "Currencies are always traded and not invested in". But many limitations of a small traders makes it a very high risk business for them.

I have two options: 1) Switch to individual stocks - but I don't want to go back into this business; and 2) Take a less profitable (and less "lossable") route that focuses on macros and rely on market force of equilibrium - this eventually requires playing on bigger timeframe.

What you can do with market data is an art which is beyond my (and many other people's) capacities. I tried to follow you, but could not do it because you are a unique individual (like everyone else) and I am not you.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #197,776
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:34pm Feb 17, 2010 10:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
atm i want to see what happens if this baby up move hits 3591..respect here we should retrace to 3625 + i think 43 holds the cap if needed.. 43 should be a soft top.. if it contains is 25 will be the next soft s/r...

if 91 untouched.. assume the position.. valid without a lower bottom

im discounting the fact that we have not breeched 3531.. so technically we are still in fridays baby bull untill 3824 or 3531 is taken out.. i better keep this in mind..

Options in focus this week

Written by Jamie Coleman
February 15, 2010 at 16:03 GMT

EUR/USD is finding support at 1.3580 session lows. Central banks are likely buyers, as they have been the whole way down. 1.3500 barriers are said to be quite substantial and linked to in-the-money options, so they will be defended very vigorously. That means that if EUR/USD trades below 1.3500 before the options expire, 1.3900 and 1.3600 EUR puts would cease to exist.
Why do traders buy options with knockouts attached? They make them cheaper. Often much cheaper. If your option can suddenly disappear, it is obviously less valuable than one which exists until expiry.
__________________________________________________________
Maybe what in this article could have something to do with the level not being breached.
  • #197,777
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:35pm Feb 17, 2010 10:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
oh and the point is u.s. consumer isnt comming back to buy europes products at same rate as before.. like our grand parents many of us will be more frugal. buy more domestic products.. europe has lost market share.. china and s. korea have already filled the void. less commerce means weaker euro..long term cycle.. when they get cheap enough we will buy again. lots of things not included
They are indeed filling the gap............... but sooner or later they are going to run out of capacity (both physical and intellectual). Nothing lasts forever, nor will China. I may be wrong, have no solid study to prove but think giant economies are more fragile - when they collapse, no one can lift them up because they are so giant in size.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #197,778
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:36pm Feb 17, 2010 10:36pm
Morning to all. I see my last eu short not tp placed at much higher level expected at 1. 3536 & close at 1.3570 but gold tp properly at 1100.

Anyway instead of bear continuation there seems a chance of little bullish movement now & stay away for a better entry short.and watching 1.3565 break below .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #197,779
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:38pm Feb 17, 2010 10:38pm
Quoting Clouds
what about this?
Attachment

Looks like we have a little buy opportunity at 0.9892
  • #197,780
  • Feb 17, 2010 10:41pm Feb 17, 2010 10:41pm
Quoting jerome
Options in focus this week

Written by Jamie Coleman
February 15, 2010 at 16:03 GMT

EUR/USD is finding support at 1.3580 session lows. Central banks are likely buyers, as they have been the whole way down. 1.3500 barriers are said to be quite substantial and linked to in-the-money options, so they will be defended very vigorously. That means...
yes we talked about this a few times last week.. they cant stop the downfall. but they can put on the brakes to controll freefall.. they saved the euro 3 times last week and once today.. smaller countries have been doing it for a month.. swiss have been doing it regular also.. it was done today to prevent eu free fall.. but this time it wasnt pushed up.. just brakes..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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