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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #10,041
  • Feb 15, 2010 5:28pm Feb 15, 2010 5:28pm
Are we waiting for the giant to awaken? My daily USD/JPY candle was 32 pips including shadows! I know it was a US holiday, but thats flat. Waiting patiently........

Poncho
" I can read the left side of the chart, the right side's a Bitch!
  • #10,042
  • Feb 15, 2010 5:58pm Feb 15, 2010 5:58pm
that should let you know who the KING is......

Quoting poncho1
Are we waiting for the giant to awaken? My daily USD/JPY candle was 32 pips including shadows! I know it was a US holiday, but thats flat. Waiting patiently........

Poncho
Annoying Precision
  • #10,043
  • Feb 15, 2010 6:23pm Feb 15, 2010 6:23pm
Quoting erikte279
that should let you know who the KING is......
Also a bank holiday in China I believe. But don't know why. If so.. then exactly who IS king.
  • #10,044
  • Feb 15, 2010 6:26pm Feb 15, 2010 6:26pm
Ill give you 3 guesses, the first 2 dont count . Imperialism.
u.s. is the best
u.s. is the best
u.s. is the best
always better then all the rest.




short usd/cad
Annoying Precision
  • #10,045
  • Feb 15, 2010 9:55pm Feb 15, 2010 9:55pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Dave, I don't think I am in any position to offer advice, but I can comment....
I'll consider your advice. We are trying to learn here. Thanks.
  • #10,046
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:13pm Feb 15, 2010 10:13pm
Quoting strat
Dave, each trade is on a case by case basis.

In your case, it broke through minor resistance at psycho 1.08 but is facing some stiff overhead resistance at 1.0860 which will probably cause the market to take a rest/retrace/make a dip before making another attack on higher prices.
I see that resistance now that you mention it. I was looking more at the 1.0940 area, but I see where the strong move down started on August 11 around 1.0850 so that may slam the brakes on this advance if it runs into supply again at this level.

I'm more concerned right now about identifying a high probability entry after price breaks through a SR level.

If every setup is unique then how can you develop any rules for yourself to follow? Is it just a matter of having lots of experience and developing "feel" for the market's condition?
  • #10,047
  • Feb 15, 2010 10:41pm Feb 15, 2010 10:41pm
Quoting PistolDave
I see that resistance now that you mention it. I was looking more at the 1.0940 area, but I see where the strong move down started on August 11 around 1.0850 so that may slam the brakes on this advance if it runs into supply again at this level.

I'm more concerned right now about identifying a high probability entry after price breaks through a SR level.

If every setup is unique then how can you develop any rules for yourself to follow? Is it just a matter of having lots of experience and developing "feel" for the market's condition?

If every setup is unique then how can you develop any rules for yourself to follow? Is it just a matter of having lots of experience and developing "feel" for the market's condition?

Hey Dave,

For me it's all about the chart time. For months i looked at charts bar by bar until my eyes bled and when i ran out of Forex charts i went to stocks and futures. I don't think you can stop either, every time i go back and study a chart again it seems i "SEE" more and more than i did before.

Something i have been doing lately is using a stock screener. At the end of every day i go through all of the hammers and shooting stars that come up in the screener (sometimes it can be a hundred hammers and shooting stars). Each chart i pull up i only take a quick glance at it and if nothing jumps out and slaps me in the face i move on. Its been helping me to not stare at a chart so long that you start making trades up. I think all the really stress free trades are the ones we don't even question we just react. i have also noticed that the longer i ponder a trade the less confidence i have in that trade as well.
  • #10,048
  • Feb 16, 2010 1:28am Feb 16, 2010 1:28am
Quoting mstandifer
...concerns have not eased and may have exacerbated as regulators uncover swap operations that they weren’t aware of previously.

...These swaps do not break EU law but the goal of the swaps may have been to conceal large amounts of interest payments by moving them from the present year to the future and not to reduce the interest payments.

...All 3 of the major rating agencies downgraded Greece’s sovereign debt rating in December. Unfortunately Greece’s problems have snowballed as more skeletons come of out of the closet.
-------excerpts from...
1.3585 Can't close below it.
  • #10,049
  • Feb 16, 2010 7:16am Feb 16, 2010 7:16am
Hi All,

USDCAD:

Price is making lower low straight down to support level and also around 61.8% level. We have many confuences now only missing is PA.
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  • #10,050
  • Feb 16, 2010 9:21am Feb 16, 2010 9:21am
Quoting PistolDave
I see that resistance now that you mention it. I was looking more at the 1.0940 area, but I see where the strong move down started on August 11 around 1.0850 so that may slam the brakes on this advance if it runs into supply again at this level.

I'm more concerned right now about identifying a high probability entry after price breaks through a SR level.

If every setup is unique then how can you develop any rules for yourself to follow? Is it just a matter of having lots of experience and developing "feel" for the market's condition?
I think you are caught up in the frustration of last week's choppy market. When everything starts moving again and we get HH/HLs and LH/LLs, you will feel better.

Patience and Discipline - Trading is sent to test us on these.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,051
  • Feb 16, 2010 9:29am Feb 16, 2010 9:29am
Quoting Lou
Also a bank holiday in China I believe. But don't know why. If so.. then exactly who IS king.
Chinese New Year

PRICE is Lord, King, Queen and Country
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,052
  • Feb 16, 2010 11:27am Feb 16, 2010 11:27am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
hey stress free londoners,

strat won't make it to london during his travels through europe and he's only got a week to meet his family and friends in the uk.

i don't know about you but i am still up for meeting you all offline and to arrange a relaxed get-together some time.

a friday evening is probably ideal for most people.

i suggest that we continue this conversation mainly via private message, so we don't fill up too much space on the thread. if you have ideas/suggestions in terms of a location and time preference let me know.

current list of people that have shown interest:

Sid
Lotuselanman
golfer27
femfam
Sinan
stgeorge
elitejets
faxfxfx

cheers
sid
  • #10,053
  • Feb 16, 2010 3:51pm Feb 16, 2010 3:51pm
Agreed. King Strat
Quoting strat
Patience and Discipline - Trading is sent to test us on these.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,054
  • Feb 16, 2010 3:56pm Feb 16, 2010 3:56pm
Quoting Donadoney
If you got an hour

http://www.jelledebruin.nl/2009/10/t...dor-jones.html
I was looking for a copy of this forever.
great find

  • #10,055
  • Feb 16, 2010 4:19pm Feb 16, 2010 4:19pm
We have mentioned this big fat line at psycho 1.3600 before
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,056
  • Feb 16, 2010 4:46pm Feb 16, 2010 4:46pm
Crystal ball gazing
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,057
  • Feb 16, 2010 7:08pm Feb 16, 2010 7:08pm
Quoting strat
We have mentioned this big fat line at psycho 1.3600 before
Cast thine eyes on the monthly.

And then the weekly.
  • #10,058
  • Feb 16, 2010 7:45pm Feb 16, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting strat
We have mentioned this big fat line at psycho 1.3600 before
I see the rejection of 1.3600 and I see the break of short term DSRI.

Quoting Alexandra
Cast thine eyes on the monthly.

And then the weekly.
I see the montly hold above the 50 and the weekly bond inverted hammer last week.

However, at the risk of being asked just how much more proof I need to buy this, I have a few questions:

What about the big area of congestion at 1.3775ish and the root DSRI both acting as resistance?

Would this be treated as an ATM up to DSRI and the 50 or a sell off of the 50 if it gets back that far up?

I see the 20 below the 50 on the daily with a hint of slowing momentum brought on by the double rejection of 1.3600 but still down.

A buy at this juncture, while possibly technically sound, isn't the Strat Stress Free Trade as we've learned it with basic PASR because #1 it's countertrend with the intermediate trend, which is down and #2 We take trades short below the 2 MAs unless we are range bound, which I don't take this to be.

If you don't mind, could you point out what I'm overlooking?

-m
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  • #10,059
  • Edited 8:12pm Feb 16, 2010 8:01pm | Edited 8:12pm
Quoting mstandifer
I see the rejection of 1.3600 and I see the break of short term DSRI.



I see the montly hold above the 50 and the weekly bond inverted hammer last week.

However, at the risk of being asked just how much more proof I need to buy this, I have a few questions:

What about the big area of congestion at 1.3775ish and the root DSRI both acting as resistance?

Would this be treated as an ATM up to DSRI and the 50 or a sell off of the 50 if it gets back that far up?

I see the 20 below the 50 on the daily with a hint of slowing momentum brought...

There is no hurry on this for the stress free trader. Should current levels hold, the monthly view remains trend-based, and the notable support will have held.

As of the moment, however, the weekly candle pattern is short term bullish. It's all how one frames it, and then how one trades within that frame. To me extrapolating the monthly look into the inability to close below the levels noted last night produced a long supported by E/J's hold of the prior doji and the Aussie stength. The R/R was favorable, so I took it. Not much to be lost there.

I will grant you that it does take a bit of anticipatory reading of the chart. One can wait for more confirmed trades, given the concerns above re: MA's and congestion. I would be interested in Strat's comments on this one. If his 5th wave is to materialize, he is likely content to wait for a bit of momentum and then a pullback - patience and discipline after all. I will not speak for him, however.

For reassurance, I would call the recent fortnight (yes, for the London club) a very difficult trading period, technically and fundamentally.

All things considered, why not trade the Aussie rather than the geo-political nag in the barn? Could there not be a more obvious trade that A/J at 76.50? That is the true Strat-style top-down trade without the need for extrapolation.
  • #10,060
  • Feb 16, 2010 8:04pm Feb 16, 2010 8:04pm
No challenges for GBPCAD tonight Strat?
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