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  • #10,021
  • Feb 13, 2010 11:14am Feb 13, 2010 11:14am
Quoting strat
Well done, Wise One!

I just prefer to call this week CRAPPY
Aha! I feel better now. I've spent all week analyzing pairs thinking "where the hell are the trades, cos I can't see anything worth a damn in terms of PASR?"

Maybe I am getting somewhere after all - if no result can be called a positive result, if you know what I mean...
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #10,022
  • Edited 3:55pm Feb 13, 2010 3:23pm | Edited 3:55pm
Hi Strat and all

In as few words as possible, my first post here. I'm still lurking back on p158 with many more weeks reading before I get to this page. This is a momentary jump in time to post what I see before jumping back to continue on the path.

Reasons to short and where to go ...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1266093479
I'll be looking for an opportunity from the daily.

On the other hand, if there is a place for COTS here (I hope that's not classed in the same way as a squiggly line)? Comm/Non-Comm a tad different to what preceded the 2008 pre-sell off.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1266093479

That's my break from lurking, now where was I ...

PS. Very nice thread Strat - thank you.
  • #10,023
  • Feb 13, 2010 11:29pm Feb 13, 2010 11:29pm
While I have no fundamental insights into the workings of the Swiss Nat'l Bank this chart of the Daily Eur/Chf caught my attention.
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  • #10,024
  • Feb 13, 2010 11:52pm Feb 13, 2010 11:52pm
Hi Sid, Femfam and others.

Live in Weybridge up for it just let me know.

Even if Strat can't make it

John
  • #10,025
  • Feb 14, 2010 1:33am Feb 14, 2010 1:33am
We have:
Big Boss: Down

Boss: Two weekly highs at 141.889 (Weekly is still downward until proved otherwise)

Worker: Daily Spinning top at High 141.889 Close 141.020

If daily breaks and you take a trade downwards look at the maths.

Sell at 139.55 Below bar of the 2/11/10
Stop loss at 142.25 leave enough room

Risk 2.7 at say £10,000 for the maths 27000 ie £189.80

Next area of downward resistance is 138.23

Reward 139.55 - 138.23 = 1.32 at £10,000 ie £95.49

Not a good risk - reward ratio!

However

Next major point of potential resistance is 131.50
Risk reward is now 8.05 at £10,000 ie £612.16

There are many ways of looking at this so how would you plan to play this potential trade?

Hope my maths are okay!
  • #10,026
  • Feb 14, 2010 3:09am Feb 14, 2010 3:09am
Quoting stgeorge
We have:
Big Boss: Down

Boss: Two weekly highs at 141.889 (Weekly is still downward until proved otherwise)

Worker: Daily Spinning top at High 141.889 Close 141.020

If daily breaks and you take a trade downwards look at the maths.

Sell at 139.55 Below bar of the 2/11/10
Stop loss at 142.25 leave enough room

Risk 2.7 at say £10,000 for the maths 27000 ie £189.80

Next area of downward resistance is 138.23

Reward 139.55 - 138.23 = 1.32 at £10,000 ie £95.49

Not a good risk - reward ratio!

However

Next major point of potential...
Assuming your math is correct I would forgo the potential gain to the 138.23 level, have my entry below that and see if the drop goes as far as the next potential resistance for the less stress trade.

I have to say that last weeks candle looks like the test of that SR at 141 and this week will be interesting to say the least, or of course it could be more of the indecision we had last week. Ho humdrum.

Larry
  • #10,027
  • Feb 14, 2010 8:45am Feb 14, 2010 8:45am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting stgeorge
Hi Sid, Femfam and others.

Live in Weybridge up for it just let me know.

Even if Strat can't make it

John

that's great that you are joining us as well stgeorge!

here is our growing vip list:

Sid
Lotuselanman
golfer27
femfam
Sinan (maybe - in London for business once a month)
stgeorge

cheers
sid
  • #10,028
  • Feb 14, 2010 12:46pm Feb 14, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting Sid
that's great that you are joining us as well stgeorge!

here is our growing vip list:

Sid
Lotuselanman
golfer27
femfam
Sinan (maybe - in London for business once a month)
stgeorge

cheers
sid
Sorry Sid, just van't make it at that time of the year. ON the other hand it could be nice to have a week in Skye at some stage and do some trading here...and partying of course.... and sight seeing too.

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #10,029
  • Feb 14, 2010 1:35pm Feb 14, 2010 1:35pm
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting Spinner
Sorry Sid, just van't make it at that time of the year. ON the other hand it could be nice to have a week in Skye at some stage and do some trading here...and partying of course.... and sight seeing too.

Spinner
hey spinner! that's a great idea, a week in skye - that'd be brilliant!
ideally at a time when the midges are not declaring jihad on humanity...

i'll make a mental note of it. and let's see if we can make it happen.
  • #10,030
  • Feb 14, 2010 1:50pm Feb 14, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting Sid
that's great that you are joining us as well stgeorge!

here is our growing vip list:

Sid
Lotuselanman
golfer27
femfam
Sinan (maybe - in London for business once a month)
stgeorge

cheers
sid
What month is it again? I will be back in the uk soon
  • #10,031
  • Edited 2:56pm Feb 14, 2010 2:40pm | Edited 2:56pm
i guss the last move down did t have enough correction to 61 fibo ??
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  • #10,032
  • Feb 14, 2010 2:59pm Feb 14, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting elitejets
What month is it again? I will be back in the uk soon
Hi Nicola, i think Sid's original intention was for June, to coincide with strat's world tour.
Although, since there are a few people within a reasonable distance, it may be flexible. Best check with Sid.
Thanks for the E/gbp explanation by the way, and thanks to blackeagle too.
  • #10,033
  • Feb 14, 2010 3:53pm Feb 14, 2010 3:53pm
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting golfer27
Hi Nicola, i think Sid's original intention was for June, to coincide with strat's world tour.
Although, since there are a few people within a reasonable distance, it may be flexible. Best check with Sid.
Thanks for the E/gbp explanation by the way, and thanks to blackeagle too.
hey nicola and golfer27,

just checking with strat if he's got time for the meetup and when. it would be cool to have him with us. if he can't make it we can meet up whenever we please really...
  • #10,034
  • Edited 5:18pm Feb 14, 2010 5:15pm | Edited 5:18pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
It makes prefect sense to me Dave anyway....

I agree, there is a very long time between good setups. Like you, Christopher I have to make myself be patient all the time.

There seem to have been some opportunities recently to take a trade when price broke through SR, but I didn't take them because I wasn't sure if there needed to be a reversal candle after the breakthrough to confirm rejection or not. I can't remember if there has been any discussion here about this or not. My feeling is that a simple break through with good momentum would be good enough if followed by a break of the next day's candle. This may not be correct though. If my memory is correct, they were saying on J16 that there needs to be a break and then a reversal candle at the SR to show that rejection before you can be sure that the SR has reversed roles, so to speak, and it is safe to enter.

Maybe I'm making this to simplistic, but I'm not clear on how it is done and what the rules are. Without some definite rules to follow how are you supposed to get confident with the method? And how can you become consistent that way?

I'm hoping someone can clarify this with some examples.

------------------

Here is an example of a trade I entered on the USDCHF on Feb 11. Both the Big Boss and Boss are indicating that there is still potential upside, and price has broken through resistance. Entered (buy market order) after the close because I wanted to be sure about the setup. I knew it was a doji, but wanted to see if it closed above the open. Placed stop 20 pips below support with target of 1.0940. It is a little better than 1:1 RR potential on this trade.

I would like to hear some comments on this to see if I'm on the right track here or not.

Thanks,
Dave

Attached Image

  • #10,035
  • Feb 14, 2010 8:16pm Feb 14, 2010 8:16pm
If you got an hour

http://www.jelledebruin.nl/2009/10/t...dor-jones.html
  • #10,036
  • Feb 15, 2010 6:01am Feb 15, 2010 6:01am
Quoting PistolDave
I agree, there is a very long time between good setups....
Dave, I don't think I am in any position to offer advice, but I can comment. We can wait for Strat to show us our errors! lol.

I think you have it right for a cautious approach, but as you say there are so few trades available if one waits for something that secure....but I wish I had done so now!

However, you seem to have obeyed the rules as taught. A possible alternative - easy to see these in retrospect isn't it?? - would be to enter after the hammer on 3rd Feb and get more of the move up. That way of course you aren't waiting for the retest of the SR and would need careful Stop placement below the hammer shadow (say 10 - 20 pips). The break through the R was pretty strong, as you say. There was a hammer on the Weekly at that point and it came after a strong bull OB on the Monthly.

Anyway just my two penny worth my friend. These things are easier to talk about than actually do I think!
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  • #10,037
  • Feb 15, 2010 1:39pm Feb 15, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting stgeorge
We have:
Big Boss: Down

Boss: Two weekly highs at...
There are many ways of looking at this so how would you plan to play this potential trade?

I don't see a "potential trade".
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,038
  • Feb 15, 2010 2:30pm Feb 15, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting PistolDave
I agree, there is a very long time between good setups....
Dave, each trade is on a case by case basis.

In your case, it broke through minor resistance at psycho 1.08 but is facing some stiff overhead resistance at 1.0860 which will probably cause the market to take a rest/retrace/make a dip before making another attack on higher prices.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,039
  • Feb 15, 2010 2:37pm Feb 15, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting strat
GBPCAD

Volunteer needed from one of the students on The Path to trade this LIVE with REAL money (not demo) as hcristea did with USDCAD.

To qualify, the student has to send me a screen shot of his live account with this order.

They must also post their PLAN for this trade and all entries, SLs, TPs etc., etc.
Take a look at where price is if a short trade was made and a 2 bar trailing stop was used. Would still be in the trade. I didn't take it because of conflicting signals. (This was also the chart where the support line was not correctly drawn.)
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  • #10,040
  • Feb 15, 2010 3:11pm Feb 15, 2010 3:11pm
...concerns have not eased and may have exacerbated as regulators uncover swap operations that they weren’t aware of previously.

...These swaps do not break EU law but the goal of the swaps may have been to conceal large amounts of interest payments by moving them from the present year to the future and not to reduce the interest payments.

...All 3 of the major rating agencies downgraded Greece’s sovereign debt rating in December. Unfortunately Greece’s problems have snowballed as more skeletons come of out of the closet.
-------excerpts from fx360

It appears that 1.3300 could be a next stop (once the noise between here and 1.3550 is cleared) unless I'm reading this incorrectly.

EURUSD Monthly shows we are in a retrace of the uptrend but upward momentum has been steadily slowing and appears to be forming a gigantic M.

EURUSD Weekly however shows that downward momentum has drawn to a crawl with a halt above the 250 and last weeks spinning top. My opinion is that the market was prepared to head in either direction but was predisposed to head up. However, given today's US banking holiday and the release of additional worries for Greece, I anticipate additional selling to price this new addition in. Next minor support at 1.3300ish.

Once London get's hold of this we'll know I believe. Perhaps someone that knows more about the Greek situation can comment and call BS on this if I'm off base.

-m
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