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  • #10,001
  • Feb 12, 2010 5:15am Feb 12, 2010 5:15am
Quoting elitejets
I agree Razor but this market feels overly bearish, I would not rule out a relief rally.

Here is AUDUSD ... daily chart
Nicola, looks like AusCad no?

Notice how price respects the different levels even before the move that you pulled the fib on is completed.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #10,002
  • Feb 12, 2010 5:17am Feb 12, 2010 5:17am
Quoting 30XTCi
Nicola, looks like AusCad no?

Notice how price respects the different levels even before the move that you pulled the fib on is completed.

Roy
Hi Roy
Yes I love it!
I have been experimenting with fib expansions for profit targets too, when prices go to new highs and lows (like GBPAUD and gold). I have been shocked how it works
  • #10,003
  • Feb 12, 2010 5:18am Feb 12, 2010 5:18am
Quoting elitejets
I agree Razor but this market feels overly bearish, I would not rule out a relief rally.

Here is AUDUSD ... daily chart
You may very well be right.

What I'm looking at is the Fib from Feb 2 2009 to Nov 16 and the monthly charts tell me this correction over the medium term is overdue.

I think we'll also see further monetary tightening in China over the coming several weeks.

Anyways, I'll continue to favor the downside until price reaches the 0.80 - 0.82 area OR IF the price goes ABOVE 0.90.

BTW, my AUDUSD chart looks very different from the one you posted. I'll try to put mine up soon.
-Razorjack
  • #10,004
  • Edited 5:40am Feb 12, 2010 5:30am | Edited 5:40am
Just looking at the S&P...we have had several days of consolidation now...a break out of the bear channel and now back in...thinking of the Big Boss and Pring...

Lets see how it closes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US SPX500 Daily (12-FEB-10).png Size: 19 KB
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #10,005
  • Feb 12, 2010 7:42am Feb 12, 2010 7:42am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
usdjpy has been fighting off sellers quite successfully in the past few days.

is it finally waking up?

i got filled long at the first (unsuccessful) break out attempt at 9014 yesterday.

pulled stop in tight at 8950 today.
  • #10,006
  • Feb 12, 2010 8:11am Feb 12, 2010 8:11am
Quoting Sid
usdjpy has been fighting off sellers quite successfully in the past few days.

is it finally waking up?

i got filled long at the first (unsuccessful) break out attempt at 9014 yesterday.

pulled stop in tight at 8950 today.
Unfortunately, I don't think the BOSS fundamentals support it just yet.

IMO, the BIG BOSS fundamentals DO point upwards on USDJPY, but these economic forces won't kick in until we see the current MEDIUM TERM (BOSS) risk aversion (China's monetary tightening, EuroZone debt crisis) settle down and the markets move back into risk appetite.
-Razorjack
  • #10,007
  • Edited 9:21am Feb 12, 2010 9:20am | Edited 9:21am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting Razorjack
Unfortunately, I don't think the BOSS fundamentals support it just yet.

IMO, the BIG BOSS fundamentals DO point upwards on USDJPY, but these economic forces won't kick in until we see the current MEDIUM TERM (BOSS) risk aversion (China's monetary tightening, EuroZone debt crisis) settle down and the markets move back into risk appetite.
thanks for the heads up razorjack! i really value your fundamentals oriented perspective on this thread. i'll keep my eyes and ears open to your inputs.

you better be wrong in this particular case though!
  • #10,008
  • Feb 12, 2010 9:46am Feb 12, 2010 9:46am
Quoting elitejets
I may have gotten very lucky ... so might be better if Blackeagle explains it.

Here is how I view it. Boss and Big Boss say we are in a downtrend and we have bounced off the bottom of a tightening wedge / triangle two weeks ago. We aren't yet in an upswing, but it could turn into one and continue to the top of the wedge. Until then if you would be looking at points where price would reverse or if you were long countertrend off the bottom (as my friend James was), you are looking at where you should take profit.
0.8833 / 0.8850 is clearly a pivot...
While everything you say is true, the rebel in me sees things differently.

There are so many conflicting technical patterns here which is why this thing is not that easy to trade.

The Big Boss has a nice flagpole with it’s flag blowing very strong. “IF” flagpole theory holds true, this is a pause in an uptrend and we should see a breakout around 0.9230 to the upside equal to the height of the flagpole.

Supporting this “theory” are:

The flag “appears” to be an A-B-C correction.

The Big Boss is in a “down” cycle from Jan 2009 but could only muster a 38.2% retrace.

The Boss is a fractal of the Big Boss and therefore supports all this in greater detail:

The Boss flag “appears” to have completed it's A-B-C correction and “looks like” it is finishing “what looks like” a Wave 4 correction and therefore, “IF” this and EW theory is true, “building” for its Wave 5 Impulse move.

The first retrace was held at 61.8% - not strength nor weakness.

The second retrace is “holding” at 78.6% retrace – a very critical level.

The Boss is nearing the end of its down cycle.

The Worker is just “doing as it is told”.

The key to the next move is therefore the 78.6% retrace level on the Boss. How PRICE behaves here will tell us what we want to know.

Having said all that, just like Manuel in “Faulty Towers”, I know nothing!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,009
  • Feb 12, 2010 10:09am Feb 12, 2010 10:09am
Quoting elitejets
Hi Roy
Yes I love it!
I have been experimenting with fib expansions for profit targets too, when prices go to new highs and lows (like GBPAUD and gold). I have been shocked how it works
Fibonacci Expansion – Is it Christmas already? A kid with a new toy?

Careful! When it works, it works

When it doesn’t work – Don’t Cry For Me Argentina!

Yes it works, sometimes, but not all of the time.

Just like Ellliott Waves, Fibonacci looks great “after the fact”

Just like Elliott Waves, when in the middle of a trade, Fibonacci belongs to the “WheretheLRwe” tribe

How do you know at which level to TP?

Is it at 100%, or 127%, or 150%, or 168%, or 178%, or 200%, or 224%, or 250%, or 268%, or 278%, or 300% etc, etc?

Oh wait a minute, you can put on 11 trades and TP at each level! (and lose out on mucho denaro)

OR,

You can ride PRICE up to reverse PASR

Got the T-Shirt, thanks, and use it to wash cars!

Remember, you can draw Fibonacci from ANYWHERE to SHOW you what YOU want it to SHOW.

Yes, its one of our tools and is somewhere in our tool chest.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,010
  • Feb 12, 2010 10:17am Feb 12, 2010 10:17am
Quoting Sid
usdjpy has been fighting off sellers quite successfully in the past few days.

is it finally waking up?

i got filled long at the first (unsuccessful) break out attempt at 9014 yesterday.

pulled stop in tight at 8950 today.
AND THE PA TO DO THAT WAS..........................................?

Have you seen where the 20 and 50 are?

While you may have the right direction, your timing STINKS!

You should expect some PAIN for your discretions against PASR
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,011
  • Edited 11:02am Feb 12, 2010 10:58am | Edited 11:02am
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting strat
AND THE PA TO DO THAT WAS..........................................?

Have you seen where the 20 and 50 are?

While you may have the right direction, your timing STINKS!

You should expect some PAIN for your discretions against PASR
points taken strat. i should have paid more attention to 20 and 50.

in terms of pasr my reasoning was this (i can already hear your hands playing bongos on my butt cheeks):

first of all, i was looking for signs of reversal (rather than being neutral/open minded).

 

  1. feb 4: a sellers attempt to push price to a new low, but unlike the previous attempts this time they are being stopped in their tracks and fought back up (price bounces off oct lows) - this is getting my attention
  2. feb 5: doji forms and indicates a pause/balance
  3. feb 6-8: more smaller dojis leading to a smaller and smaller trading range (triangle). sid looks at feb 5 doji and thinks to himself "if this gets broken either way, this should give a good indication for direction"
  4. feb 9: price moves to high of aforementioned doji-level, stops and then slightly retraces. in my head this gives more significance to the doji level and shows some buying strength
  5. feb 10: sellers are trying to push price down but are stopped again and overpowered by buyers (further indication for strength) - bar closes just underneath doji-high.
  6. feb 11: i put in stop order at 9014 expecting a possible breakout - allowing some (but not enough) space over the high of last candle.
  7. feb 12: i get filled



i think i got too focused on a possible breakout and developed tunnel vision.

the markets have been good to me lately. now it's probably time for another bongo session.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,012
  • Feb 12, 2010 11:58am Feb 12, 2010 11:58am
Quoting Sid
(i can already hear your hands playing bongos on my butt cheeks)

the markets have been good to me lately. now it's probably time for another bongo session.
Where's the camera when you need it?
  • #10,013
  • Feb 12, 2010 1:31pm Feb 12, 2010 1:31pm
Quoting Sid
points taken strat. i should have paid more attention to 20 and 50.

in terms of pasr my reasoning was this (i can already hear your hands playing bongos on my butt cheeks):

first of all, i was looking for signs of reversal (rather than being neutral/open minded).
[list][*]feb 4: a sellers attempt to push price to a new low, but unlike the previous attempts this time they are being stopped in their tracks and fought back up (price bounces off oct lows) - this is getting my attention[*]feb 5: doji forms and indicates a pause/balance[*][b]feb...
Hi Sid,

With Strat comments, all candles you mentioned were inside big bearish candle. I think there will be better PA around 88.00 and also 61.8% level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.02-12-10.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #10,014
  • Feb 12, 2010 1:41pm Feb 12, 2010 1:41pm
Three words can describe this week in Forex: Chop and Slop. I continue to be on the sidelines until something DEFINITIVE for ME shows itself. Trade safe.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #10,015
  • Feb 12, 2010 1:56pm Feb 12, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting Flem26
Three words can describe this week in Forex: Chop and Slop. I continue to be on the sidelines until something DEFINITIVE for ME shows itself. Trade safe.
Well done, Wise One!

I just prefer to call this week CRAPPY
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,016
  • Feb 12, 2010 1:57pm Feb 12, 2010 1:57pm
Quick 2 minute eyeball through the beer glass:

AUDCAD
6th test of support – looks like it wants another crack at psycho 0.96

AUDJPY
20 & 50 trying to hold it back but looks like it will eventually push through to psycho 83

AUDNZD
Banging its head on resistance again and looks range-bound to 1.2450

AUDUSD
Same as AUDJPY to 0.9130

CADJPY
Fighting with 50 and pushing for 87.60

CHFJPY
4th test of support – looks like it wants another crack at psycho 86.00

EURAUD & EURCAD
Still pushing lower for next support

EURGBP
See previous “I know nothing” post

EURJPY
4th test of support – looks like it wants another crack at 127.60

EURUSD
4th test of support – Is PRICE moving to the 20 or the 20 moving to PRICE? Either way, relief is at the 20.

GBPAUD
78.6% or 61.8% retrace – take your pick. Finding support for another crack at 1.83

GBPCAD
Trying to make a double bottom for move back up to 1.7250

GBPCHF
Nasty piece of work! Expect PRICE rejection at 1.70 for move back down to 1.6650


GBPJPY
7th test of support – Looks like it wants another crack at 150.50 but………………

GBPUSD
6th test of support - Looks like it wants a shot at 1.61

NZDJPY
4th test of resistance – Fall back down to 60.50

NZDUSD
4th test of resistance – Fall back down to 66.00

USDCAD
Firmly rejected by 1.0725 – Hold at 1.04 or back down to 1.0260?

USDCHF
5th attempt at banging the doors down on 1.0760. If it makes it, next stop 1.1335

USDJPY
7th re-test of support. Looking to re-test 93.14 but has it got the legs?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,017
  • Feb 12, 2010 2:01pm Feb 12, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Sid,

With Strat comments, all candles you mentioned were inside big bearish candle. I think there will be better PA around 88.00 and also 61.8% level.
Spot on, Patrick. This is also part of The Wedge. Stay out until resolution of The Wedge.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,018
  • Feb 12, 2010 4:04pm Feb 12, 2010 4:04pm
  •  Sid
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Get wise or die laughing | 85 Posts
Quoting patrick25
Hi Sid,

With Strat comments, all candles you mentioned were inside big bearish candle. I think there will be better PA around 88.00 and also 61.8% level.
thanks patrick! as strat has already commented - spot on!
  • #10,019
  • Edited 1:55am Feb 13, 2010 1:53am | Edited 1:55am
Quoting strat
Quick 2 minute eyeball through the beer glass:...
Strat, your quick analysis of the recent price action has been very helpful. Correctly identifying support and resistance levels has been one of my weak points. Your comments on each pair is helping me gain more confidence by looking at the charts and seeing if I have the same SR levels as you do. Sometimes I do, and that's good. Sometimes I don't and it makes me think and ask why. This is making me learn.

I would like to see some examples of a good entry after price has broken through a SR level. I know you talked some about this a few days ago, but I really don't have a clear understanding of it. It's been mentioned in the past that an aggressive entry would be to enter right after the SR is broken, and a conservative entry would be to wait for price to test and be rejected by the SR (after breaking through). I'm still not clear on whether this rejection has to be a BEEB, BUOB, etc. or if price simply has to move in the right direction after the test and the candle is not important in that case. I hope this makes sense.

Thanks, Dave
  • #10,020
  • Feb 13, 2010 9:35am Feb 13, 2010 9:35am
Quoting PistolDave
[font=Courier New][size=3]Strat, your quick analysis of the recent price action has been very helpful. [][font=Courier New][size=3]It's been mentioned in the past that an aggressive entry would be to enter right after the SR is broken, and a conservative entry would be to wait for price to test and be rejected by the SR (after breaking through). I'm still not clear on whether this rejection has to be a BEEB, BUOB, etc. or if price simply has to move in the right direction after the test and the candle is not important in that case. I hope this makes...
It makes prefect sense to me Dave anyway. It has been the aggressive approach which has mainly been the cause of my losses in January. From now on I am going to wait for the retest and if it doesn't retest and just continues up or down so I lose an entry, well I lose it!

As for the type of candle.... I think 'looking behind the candle' i.e. at the context - which refers to progress of the Daily chart, and how that can be seen in relation to the progress of the Weekly and then the Monthly which is the main thing. The candle shape is determined by this context. It is what the candle reveals that is the important bit. But then I am sure you know this.

I'm just trying to reassure myself that I know what I'm talking about really. LOL

Its the waiting that is the difficult part of the discipline I think.

Good luck.

Christopher
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