EURUSD

I doubt that the worst for the Euro is over yet. Sometimes you can't just trade technical indicators on the chart only and ignore the fundamentals of the marketplace. This is one of those times. The "Falling Knife Catchers" will continue to be impaled in the short term, imo.

the bailout did not matter.. its there to fool people.
bailout from ez= printing.
no bailout from any source = default.
neither possitive for euro. who would loan money knowing their people will strike? that loan will be a donation. banks already holding greece paper will have to decide if they are gonna throw away good money for bad. imf is their best chance. but when the public is gonna strike its not a good chance. greece's people may want default and to leave ez union. your only as strong as the weakest link. bailout is just a shell game. the bill is still there.

public opinion in greece is very upset. they blame the eu for letting them down, since they believe that the book cooking and meddling was done with eu knowledge or acceptance. they also blame the eu because other countries such as spain or even germany have huge deficits, over 8-9 % and are not in the spotlight. greek people who may not be the most workaholics in the eu (far from that) have a very sensitive and strong democracy habits . when they don t like something they show up in the street like the french and they have they say. it is to my knoweldge one of the most democratic people in the eu and they also believe that greece has invented democracy and still have something to teach the rest of europeans in terms of resisting autocrats. i suppose that we are very close to a moment when tough measures suggested by brussels are rejected not by the greek government but by the greek people in the street, and then what ? greece out of the euro ?

Well - let my try to show the way as I see it - from techical prospective only ...

Try to show in a 30 min chart - though I am not soo good in that discipline (graphical views I mean) ...

I think we need a severe Breakout from that pattern - in which it is caught between these two "BLACK LINES" ...

Short position only favoured - if confirmed by a break below 1.3534 ...

That green pivotal zone there ...

Otherwise - Fridays breach of below 1.3585 - which was previous imminent LOW ...

Could be considered as a "FALSE BREAKOUT" to the downside ...

if they did. they could drop the value on whatever currency they will use versus usd. and have a hell of a tourism market. they could be a hub to europe tourism at a cheaper price. and would end up stronger.. after the pain was worked through

What happens if a country defaults? Merger and acquisition? They become a province of someone else? No one will talk to them?
civil unrest. No food. What happens?

3531 is the low since summer and you say false breakout because of friday? ok.

Gator since the news is very negative for EU and the word bailout means nothing, what is you take on the price action today from the London session?

It appears we are in a consolidation period that has lasted since Friday after the huge bounce off the 3535 area. I realize the US market is closed but doesn't this PA give false hopes to any Bulls seeing as no higher highs have been made in this Downtrend? Of course, no lower Lows either.

What are you targeting since you went Short at 3614?

Thanks

have you been to greece recently ? it is beautyfull, wonderfull, it has always been. but it has lost the battle of cheap and value for money tourism. turkey has much better infrastructure. egypt is arab but it is cheap . and greek tourism industry is not genuine anymore , it is commoditised like spain, no touch of authenticity left, many sites are left abandonned, no money to pay the staff, but it does nt have the huge infrastructure , 5 stars all inclusive hotels like turkey or egypt with dozens of water sports connected. i would very much enjoy greece going back to the 1980 type of tourism, more rural, more authentic, cheaper, more natural, but this has been lost and they are stuck in the middle of the market, bad positioning for their tourism

Since nothing definitive has been formulated for Greece and it is not only Greece, Greece is the first to cry out, but there is Portugal and Spain (and who knows who else) just a few steps behind catching up fast and there are more meetings next week, I would not expect to see a breakout of the range just yet although there is a definite long term down bias in the air.
Even if something definite is established, which would also be setting a precedent for dealing with the other countries in trouble any upside would not define a new long term direction for the EUR but simply be a temporary lift. MHO

nope.. they say kiss my ass we aint paying were outa here.. so they will get downgrade rating. so if they borrow money interest will be higher. if they can get a loan. but countrys will more then likely follow..it could cause all to get out. the stronger coutries dont want to support a welfare system for the weaker. the weaker may be weaker because of membership.. the ones with industrial industry will be the stronger. but not long with being on china's dart board. triciet may be one of the 10% unemployed. if the ez stays together it will still be rough waters.. for a long time

building shorts.. without bitting off more then i can chew. im not negative on ez.. just the situation we are all in. u.s. closed.. but did china take a week off also? im selling peeks.. nothing has changed for me.. will exit most at targets i post. wait for bounce and reload..

not yet..

Looking for break out under red line or above gree line. Then retest and enter.

The European Union has asked Greece to explain reports that it engaged in derivatives trades with U.S. investment banks that may have allowed it to mask the size of its debt and deficit from EU authorities.
According to the New York Times, one contract in 2001 -- carried out just as Greece was joining Europe's monetary union -- involved Greece selling forward future lottery receipts and airport landing fees in exchange for cash to write down debts.
The deal was treated as a currency trade rather than a loan, according to the newspaper, allowing Greece to hide it from public view while meeting EU deficit limits.
Greece's finance minister, George Papaconstantinou, on Monday dismissed suggestions that his country may have played fast and loose with monetary rules, saying the transactions Greece took part in were permissible at the time.
"The kind of derivatives contracts reported by some newspapers were legal at that time," he told reporters in Brussels. "Greece was not the only country to use them...They were made illegal; we have not used them since then."
The issue has become a focus of attention as Greece has now acknowledged that it has a budget deficit of nearly 13 percent of gross domestic product -- more than four times EU limits -- and a national debt equivalent to 120 percent of GDP.
The fiscal problems have led to pressure on Greek debt in bond markets and weakened the European single currency.
The European Commission, the EU's executive that is responsible for enforcing EU laws, said it had asked Greece to explain what contracts it had engaged in as Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, had never been informed.
"I want to state that Eurostat was not aware of such transactions," Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told a regular briefing on Monday.
"But I can tell you that Eurostat has indeed, following these reports, already requested the Greek authorities for an explanation by the end of February."
Asked if the derivatives trades that Greece is alleged to have conducted fell within EU budget rules, Altafaj said:
"We need the information on what kind of transactions took place, if they did (take place), and what was the effect on the government accounts of Greece...This is something that we don't have the information (on) yet and we have requested."

TRANSPARENCY
A senior Greek finance ministry official told Reuters that Greece's current debt financing operations were transparent and complied with Eurostat rules.
But Eurostat, which already has profound concerns about the reliability of Greek macroeconomic data, is likely to take a very hard look at exactly what transactions took place and when.
"This is why we are requesting more capacity for Eurostat to indeed to have more thorough and deeper view on these statistics. Reliable statistics are a key issue in management of public finances," Altafaj said.
What Greece appears to have carried out, at least on one occasion, is a currency swap, which Altafaj said would have to be examined to see if it met EU rules.
In particular, Eurostat will assess if underlying exchange rates and interest rates in any swaps were calculated based on observed market rates, which may be necessary for such deals to be considered legitimate, he said.
An article in Risk magazine last week said a deal between Greece and Goldman Sachs , completed in 2002, had effectively allowed Greece to borrow about 1 billion euros without adding to its public debt figures, at a time when the size of its borrowing threatened to attract a fine by Brussels.
Risk said such swaps were legal, common at the time, and widely marketed by a number of banks.
Under the deals, a country could reduce the size of the debt on its balance sheet by issuing euro-denominated debt and swapping it into a foreign currency such as dollars, using an artificially weak or off-market euro exchange rate. The debt would be recognised by Eurostat at the market rate, cutting the country's recorded debt burden, although the country would end up paying higher coupons on the debt, Risk said.
Goldman Sachs declined to comment on Monday.
At a meeting later on Monday, euro zone finance ministers were expected to exert more pressure on Greece to implement planned budget deficit cuts. EU leaders pledged last week to help Athens resolve its crisis if needed, but they are still hoping to avoid having to provide concrete aid.

Last week you said something about a bounce off the 3550 area....to 3566 area i believe and then continue downward.....

You still looking for 34xx area or the 32xx area....for the bounce to reload and Short again?

I am looking for a SHORT to 3380 area before a retrace back to 3650ish/66....

We are still in a channel on 1 hr and my Daily pitchfork still showing downtrend!

i think that its not greece,or eu with all countries on it ,the problem is that the center of gravity and money is going east ,slowly but with more confidence ... i think that the headache for europe and the us just began ...and there r more to come ....

red .. i think you were looking at vsa

plot 60 min eu .. and then go to us session and you will see clearly why selling of 1.3625 is safe for this session .....

2 x 40 pip trade. I only managed one trade of 30 pip for session as got bored out of my mind lol

the awkwardness of the problems of PIGS, adds to our friends that Ianke GOLDMAN SACHS

Excuse me - I do not understand ...


What do you mean with "vsa" ... ?