EURUSD

As i said yesterday,i think down momentum is over for a while...Good sup levels and good hss formation on my triger but this is Forex and we can be 100 % sure...


Cheers and happy piping

Vanyxter had a great reply to your full post. I will elaborate on this question though.

Path of least resistance. Learn this, imprint it into your brain and trade by this principle for the rest of your Forex days. If you do this, you are bound to succeed. So in other words, if the trend is up, you look for buys only, if the trend is down, you look for sells only. If the trend is ranging, you look for buys and sells at the the support/resistance levels you have predetermined.

There are 3 variables you must take into account though.

1)The time frame you watch. For example, if you are an intraday trader as most of us are, you look on the hourly charts to get an idea about what has happened in the last 24 hours or so, give you a good picture of which way the market is moving and then you switch to lower time frames 5min/15min to look for ideal entry points in the direction the trend may be at the time.

2)The second variable is something that has happened time and time again. Let's say the US session has had a bullish Euro, the trend was up all the way to the close but there didn't seem to be much strength behind the movement up. You may conclude that because of the weak upwards pa, the Euro will probably run out of steam by the Asian session open and hit a resistance, where shorting the Euro might be optimal. This is just one example. It is not always this simple, especially in past weeks.

3)News releases. News is the fuel that feeds the fire (PA) from the short term to the long term. Important news can alter the course of PA for any one day dramatically. In other words, if the Eur/Usd was consolidating upwards pre-news and the news release was bullish for the dollar, the Eur/Usd may take a deep dive afterward. If there is important news again 2 hours later, which is positive for the Euro, the pair may go up again making the Euro stronger yet again. In other words, there may be several trends (up, down, up, down, down) in just one session if the news have the capacity to create such volatility.

In the end you must spend thousands of hours just watching the charts across all different timezones to see how PA behaves from one session to the next and get a "feel" for the markets and truly understand for yourself through experience whatever the answers to your questions are, including this post. Hope this helps

Well if this is true, (snip of article below) all I can say is that as specs were amassing this short position the Euro was not much lower for it and who was buying into this selling? The banks, etc. while generally holding the lows. IMHO, this is good news for a Euro bounce as these guys will need to cover dollar longs/Euro shorts if the Euro rallies some which will reinforce upside momentum. Although I do favor TA, this is something to think about..

NEW YORK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Currency speculators increased
bets the U.S. dollar has room to rise to the highest level
since the week of Sept. 23, 2008, according to Commodity
Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday and
Reuterscalculation.

Well there's another site that you can check all the different brokers out and their reviews from people like you and me... There isn't a perfect broker, they all have +'s and -'s so it depends on how you trade and what you're looking for.

I don't think FF want's me to post links to other sites so if you PM me I'll send a link to another site which has tons of user reviews on Futures brokers. Most end up using Interactive Brokers though due to price (They are the cheapest)... Service isn't that great with them though. Another good one is Velocity Trading (Free X-Trader with them----I use Ninja Trader though).

Different brokers have differet rules and account minimums, diffrerent margins, some good cust. service but high commission, some low commission but bad service ect. So really you need to decide what you are looking for before thinking about what broker would be best for you. I would base that on your typical monthly round turns', how much help or how important customer service is, what amount of funds you want to begin with (some are higher than others), what trading platform you like, and as another point how quick you need executions (X-Trader is the fastest with the right feed).

Hope this helps.

Attached daily chart. There are a lot of indications of a reversal on EURO USD. I am staying out till Tuesday AM (US closed) and then I am looking to find an area to go long on this pair as do I on Pound dollar.

You present the basics without all the mumbo-jumbo that clutters this biz.
I have one small argument with Vanx..The current price is not allways the true price. To determine the true price it is nessesary to look beyond what your broker is posting as the current 'bid-ask', to the underlying value as represented by a longer time frame. The average price on a 'daily chart is more accurate for a true price. How important this is depends as you mentioned on the traders time frame.

morning guys oanda has got us @ 3617 atm.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...egin-here.html

if we keep hearing buzz like this about the dissolution of the EU will there be any reason to be long euro or short gold?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ro-puzzle.html

Another good one...

I think there is a bias as its beneficial for the pound if the euro falls even further.

This one too if fun
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61D0ZC20100214

http://bs.serving-sys.com/BurstingPi...uID=0&Pos=3723 http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/us.reut...0214;ord=7848?
More Reuters Results for:


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Germans say euro zone may have to expel Greece: poll

Madeline Chambers
BERLIN
Sun Feb 14, 2010 8:16am EST










BERLIN (Reuters) - A majority of Germans want debt-ridden Greece to be thrown out of the euro zone if necessary and more than two-thirds oppose handing Athens billions of euros in credit, a poll published on Sunday showed.

This is like ANALysts downgrade for stocks., Always upgrade on top

and downgrade on the bottom. Now they treating EUR like this is some

kind of Mexican Peso or Zimbabwe Dollar.

Time to Buy EUR and SELL Dollar. Dollar - strong SELL.

Just check out the last 3 paragraphs of that article that THE FOOL posted.

Although Greece will be presented as a one-off e_SEnD a "very exceptional" case e_SEnD once that line has been crossed there is no going back. Other eurozone countries will want a bail-out. Why should Portuguese, Estonian or Spanish workers endure austerity and unemployment, while those in Greece were spared? Why them and not us? If big banks can compete for bail-outs, walking the line of "moral hazard", political leaders will do so too. A Greek rescue by the Germans would spark repeated bail-outs.
In the end, voters in the big eurozone economies, faced with their own fiscal problems will say enough is enough. Europe's monetary union will collapse, just like every other currency union in the history of man. The exception is America – yet the US, as the eurocrats hate to acknowledge, had been through a century and a half of political union before the Federal Reserve was founded in 1913.
That's the key difference. America is a political union, with a system of explicit inter-regional fiscal transfers, and the eurozone isn't. That's why the single currency will ultimately split and be exposed as what it is – a triumph of European hubris and political vanity over unavoidable economic logic.

 

1. Liam Halligan is chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management

Bullish eurusd trade,

Current Price#1.3632
Entry# buy at market
Target# 1.4075 initially
SL# Discretional but for a "buy and walk away trade" SL @1.3610

Theres is more where that come from, it is your choice whether you take this alert or not and i will not held responsible for any damage. My mentor who i got this from said it could go all the way to 1.5927 and the possibility of that depends of the success of this trade, he gave me a timeline.

well as we see it is not hard to find press treatment of the euro's predicament. we could fill up many pages here with discussion but any way you slice it there's a huge amount of uncertainty surrounding euro's future both near- and long-term and how anybody can find a euro buy signal there is beyond me.

I am selling a kidney on ebay so I can raise some cash to long gold...

This week will not be a bad time for the debate - Fundies or Tech? as the EURUSD is poised at a very crucial stage with the Fundies crying SELL and the Techies saying BUY but with caution, well we all know that Fundies are very good at spreading rumours so as to sway enough traders on thier side of the markets and we know the Techies are more consious of Price Action, but very well then, we will see..

My view in this type of scenario is if i am taking a position, i enter with small lots until a winner emerges b/w the bulls and the bears at this crucial levels meaning i am relying on price action and definately not rumours because no matter which way it goes there will always be more opportunities to follow the trend, atleast that is better having my fingers burnt because i want to be seen as a die-hard fundies or techies, its only the market that has the sole rights to prove something to us all when it comes to price and no other persons, big players, smart money, institutions or otherwise has that same power, if they did then the big banks will not need bail outs, big players will never lose a cent and they will probably be the richest people in the world and believe me they are not.

trend is your friend and your enemy when it reverses

Totally agree. I can see no reason to call a bottom to this yet and i hear nothing positive newswise about the EZ at the moment which further reinforces that.
Lets see what this week brings....

no bottom in sight, but a retracement up to ~1,375 in order to produce even more volume for the rally down. keep in mind the bank holidays.

How does bank holiday affect the market...?