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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #14,861
  • Feb 10, 2010 10:49am Feb 10, 2010 10:49am
any sugestion?? which way ?
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  • #14,862
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:09pm Feb 10, 2010 1:09pm
I don't typically trade this pair but have been watching it closely the past week, I'm trying to understand why it has had a negative correlation to the usdx the past few days, when usdx is going up so is u/j, maybe I'm missing something here but that just doesn't add up. Anyone have any fundamental reason this pair doesn't like to follow the usdx at least over the past few days? U/J is a part of this basket isn't it? Maybe b/c its ranging?
This is what awesome feels like
  • #14,863
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:38pm Feb 10, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting BudFox
I don't typically trade this pair but have been watching it closely the past week, I'm trying to understand why it has had a negative correlation to the usdx the past few days, when usdx is going up so is u/j, maybe I'm missing something here but that just doesn't add up. Anyone have any fundamental reason this pair doesn't like to follow the usdx at least over the past few days? U/J is a part of this basket isn't it? Maybe b/c its ranging?
jpy is not weighted much on the usdx
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  • #14,864
  • Feb 10, 2010 1:41pm Feb 10, 2010 1:41pm
Quoting Kas1
jpy is not weighted much on the usdx

Thanks, very helpful, makes complete sense now.
This is what awesome feels like
  • #14,865
  • Feb 10, 2010 5:55pm Feb 10, 2010 5:55pm
today is national holiday in japan, may stay slow, but hope it goes up.
  • #14,866
  • Feb 10, 2010 6:41pm Feb 10, 2010 6:41pm
I am still holding my longs from last month. My target is 92. After today's Bernanke comments I see this going up.
Its all in the mind.
  • #14,867
  • Feb 10, 2010 6:57pm Feb 10, 2010 6:57pm
61%fip of last swing is at 90.23
dayly 50ema and gann hilo about same area
so should be good resistance there
we are in a rising wedge=bearish
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  • #14,868
  • Feb 11, 2010 3:09am Feb 11, 2010 3:09am
http://i46.tinypic.com/b84h9l.jpg


guessing it is creeping back to where it dropped huge (90.34) ...
  • #14,869
  • Feb 11, 2010 3:22am Feb 11, 2010 3:22am
Quoting bshcom
61%fip of last swing is at 90.23
dayly 50ema and gann hilo about same area
so should be good resistance there
we are in a rising wedge=bearish
ur classical chart makes sense to me ....

(ichimuko chart -- i am 'illiterate' )
  • #14,870
  • Feb 11, 2010 10:13pm Feb 11, 2010 10:13pm
going very slow
but still bearish to me
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  • #14,871
  • Feb 12, 2010 3:49am Feb 12, 2010 3:49am
Hi, what do U think to do in next week?mayby we should go long slowly...?
  • #14,872
  • Feb 12, 2010 5:25am Feb 12, 2010 5:25am
Quoting macher
Hi, what do U think to do in next week?mayby we should go long slowly...?
still long, but not just for next week. the price will goes up in a long term time frame also.perhaps 2 or 3 weeks. 2 weeks is the best. thats what i expect, any other view guys?
  • #14,873
  • Feb 12, 2010 2:59pm Feb 12, 2010 2:59pm
Trying to stay patient with my short trade, it should either play out next week or I was wrong. Two charts same lines (I know it looks alittle sloppy). Basically we are at the top of this trend channel which should hold it if we are going to stay in this down trend.

Also I have laid some fibs from the high of the trend channel to the low (red fib) which gives good resistance at the ~32 level and is just above the trendline. Also the fib (black fib) from the most recent high to low from last week has contained PA, with no close above the ~61 fib, acting as resistance as well. The large fib (purple fib) from the most recent low in Nov 2009 to its high in Jan 2010 is acting as support in the ~.50 zone, as there as been no follow through since breaking it.

There could be a substial break lower to the ~61 purple fib if we can get a close and follow through in the 89.3 zone.

The tipping point for the move down should occur once the up TL is broken, shown in the 3rd chart, from there next resistance should be 89.3 area (purp fib) then the previous swing low followed by 88.2 area then possibly a test of the bottom part of the current channel.

Only time will tell, as with pair it is very boring followed by moments of sheer excitment. I don't typically trade this pair, but it looked like a good opportunity when I originally went short last week, I don't hold trades this long usually but it seems like if its going to make its break south it should happen next week. May not trade this pair for awhile after this one.

Thoughts?
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This is what awesome feels like
  • #14,874
  • Feb 13, 2010 3:48pm Feb 13, 2010 3:48pm
my tought!
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  • #14,875
  • Feb 14, 2010 3:14pm Feb 14, 2010 3:14pm
Quoting BudFox
Trying to stay patient with my short trade, it should either play out next week or I was wrong. Two charts same lines (I know it looks alittle sloppy). Basically we are at the top of this trend channel which should hold it if we are going to stay in this down trend.

Also I have laid some fibs from the high of the trend channel to the low (red fib) which gives good resistance at the ~32 level and is just above the trendline. Also the fib (black fib) from the most recent high to low from last week has contained PA, with no close above the ~61...
A break out from the resistance line of the downtrend on the 3or4-hour chart would be a good buy. While a breakdown on the rising wedge also on the 3or4-hour chart would be a good sell for me...
  • #14,876
  • Feb 14, 2010 5:46pm Feb 14, 2010 5:46pm
5 minutes to date...
  • #14,877
  • Feb 14, 2010 6:28pm Feb 14, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting mkla80
today is national holiday in japan, may stay slow, but hope it goes up.
What would be reason to go up?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #14,878
  • Feb 14, 2010 6:37pm Feb 14, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting mima
What would be reason to go up?
...trend is up near term to me...mite go long in highlighted area and take profit around white line resistance...
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  • #14,879
  • Feb 14, 2010 6:38pm Feb 14, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting mima
What would be reason to go up?
My friend mima was taking about last friday (bank holiday in japan) today is monday 15th (bank holiday in usa)so... the charts can be looking like rolly coaster. But your qestion is very good, why shoud go up?
  • #14,880
  • Feb 14, 2010 6:52pm Feb 14, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting Kas1
...trend is up near term to me...mite go long in highlighted area and take profit around white line resistance...
Why do U think the pair can go just 30-40 pips, can U look wider... it can go to 92,... even 93, what u think?
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